It was this run last Friday night when ECM first suggested the possiblity of high pressure taking over again from the start of the coming week.

IMO, it is very difficult to find any faults with the way it has performed at all. It has, of nothing else, at least been pretty consistent in the past 7 days.

It has David, and the changes have been steady clear evolutions from one scenario to the next. As Rob says the t850s have moderated for the coming days but at the same time the focus seems to have to higher pressure in the Greenland region.

 Edit: I await the 240hr ECM op run chart with some interest 

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T+216.

Are we going to get a massive high from Greenland to Europe? Or will that energy coming out of Canada scupper it?

2m temps may well prove to be a different matter but the demise of the 850hPAmtemos on the 12z GFS and now the ECM is quite remarkable!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017011312/ECM0-144.GIF?13-0 

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we are better off sinking this high ASAP now and perhaps looking for GH

Very disappointing and shows how the odds are always stacked against an easterly

 

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tweet from MATT Hugo:

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 14m14 minutes ago

12Z EC holding the main centre of gravity of the high next week further south meaning the colder continental flow is less likely too...

Big deal

Matt comments on every single run

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ECM still going large for the Greenland High... strange when by all accounts it is meant to be going for SW winds in the 15 dayer

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif 

I suppose we could see a west-based -ve NAO set up with SW winds coming up underneath, down the line?

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T+240

Nuff said.

One for the bin (because I don't like it)

And yes at 240 a west based -ve NAO does seem to be setting up. NAO is rapidly heading through the floor there but not in the right place for the UK apart from northern Scotland!

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ECM still going large for the Greenland High... strange when by all accounts it is meant to be going for SW winds in the 15 dayer

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

I suppose we could see a west-based -ve NAO set up with SW winds coming up underneath, down the line?

Yes that is definitely a possibility. I'm just intrigued by the changes and developments in the medium term. They may come to nothing, but on the other hand...

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oh dear, what a mess! Lets hope there are high levels of Shannon Entropy!

 

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T+240

Nuff said.

One for the bin (because I don't like it)

P.S. it's ten days away and to be taken with lots of salt.

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we are better off sinking this high ASAP now and perhaps looking for GH

Very disappointing and shows how the odds are always stacked against an easterly

 

Well the first bit has been done. As for the second bit, I entirely agree with you.

Blimey must be a witch in the uk to flip the models like that something not right here

Are we ever going to get an easterly?? or are we just going to get these one or two day events that give north westerly winds for the SW...!? I mean it's hardly been cold and after last months let down in easterly - could this be another will it be another slack benign High pressure again before eventually collapsing ?

Also Gooner - I tried to send you a PM could you empty your inbox?! Thanks

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Best to give model watching a miss for a week or so.
A stinky sinker wins out again. It's like pulling teeth.

If I stuck to watching 48 hour forecasts life would be a little less painful.

oh dear, what a mess! Lets hope there are high levels of Shannon Entropy!

 

Nail on the head Beast - the 12z runs from GFS and ECM are all over the place by the time they get to t+192 and I think both can be safely binned, since they are clearly clueless.

Something is up and the picture beyond t+144 will take a while to resolve itself.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Jan 2017 to Friday 27 Jan 2017:

It will be largely cloudy on Wednesday, with patchy rain in places, and colder air is expected to persist across the south. Although it will also turn drier and sunnier in the southeast in particular, north-western parts will remain cloudier and milder. Thereafter, many areas will be largely dry and fine with an increasing risk of frost and fog, with any rain and hill snow restricted to the northwest. It will feel very cold for many, especially in the south and east, with sleet or snow showers possible across eastern coastal parts. Towards the end of the period, southern areas are likely to stay largely dry but it is expected to become cloudy for most

Wrong thread but just to put some perspective on things todays update from the Met as far as two weeks out...........its hardly a bad update , cold and wintry PPN the further South and East you are .............remember last years rubbish

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My hunch is that the easterly will be back on tomorrow. I've seen these weird wobbles at T72 - T84 before. I'm still going for it from as early as Monday. I will even go so far as to say the mild air won't reach the far SE and attention should be drawn to a snow event on Sunday before the front pushes back west.

There..that's confidence for ya. 

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Nail on the head Beast - the 12z runs from GFS and ECM are all over the place by the time they get to t+192 and I think both can be safely binned, since they are clearly clueless.

Something is up and the picture beyond t+144 will take a while to resolve itself.

They are very similiar to the last few runs in the broad general pattern, especially the ECM.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Jan 2017 to Friday 27 Jan 2017:

It will be largely cloudy on Wednesday, with patchy rain in places, and colder air is expected to persist across the south. Although it will also turn drier and sunnier in the southeast in particular, north-western parts will remain cloudier and milder. Thereafter, many areas will be largely dry and fine with an increasing risk of frost and fog, with any rain and hill snow restricted to the northwest. It will feel very cold for many, especially in the south and east, with sleet or snow showers possible across eastern coastal parts. Towards the end of the period, southern areas are likely to stay largely dry but it is expected to become cloudy for most

Wrong thread but just to put some perspective on things todays update from the Met as far as two weeks out...........its hardly a bad update , cold and wintry PPN the further South and East you are .............remember last years rubbish

they will change that on next update to a milder outcome