Only just picked up on your latest observations Q;  how convinced are you that this will develop into a medicane, according to your criteria? I note the conditions and location are right, and a warm core is forecast through to 20th, but the GFS 0z this morning seems to have the 500mb cold spilling into Spain by 20th, with the structured low staying close to the Balearics. Should I be looking higher up than the 500?

 

I'd say the odds are good, perhaps 60-70%

And yes the core of the upper cold moves over to spain

But these 500hpa temps are more than cold enough for Medicane development, and actually substantially colder than what we had for Trixie.

The window of opportunity is also quite large; there is ample opportunity for a medicane to develop given these conditions.

Do people want to start thinking of a name to call this one if it develops like last time?

What's its projected track? It looks like it wants to wallow around the Balearics. Can't think of a name beginning with U except Ulric, who's a poster on TWO. Edit: if the alphabetical protocol isn't followed (and there's no reason why it should- naming medicanes is a young thing, after all- then there is a place on Menorca called (Saint) Lluis with two 'L's- that's distinctive. Any other thoughts?

Or we could be cheeky and call it Rudolph  

Or we could be cheeky and call it Rudolph  

This could sum up winter at the UK - as in struggling to get going.

What's its projected track? It looks like it wants to wallow around the Balearics. Can't think of a name beginning with U except Ulric, who's a poster on TWO. Edit: if the alphabetical protocol isn't followed (and there's no reason why it should- naming medicanes is a young thing, after all- then there is a place on Menorca called (Saint) Lluis with two 'L's- that's distinctive. Any other thoughts?

Doesn't have to begin with U; Trixie didn't follow a storm beginning with S.

Choose wisely; the name could go viral like it did last time!

http://www.weer.nl/nieuws/detail/2016-10-30-medicane-trixie-op-weg-naar-kreta/

http://www.wetter.net/wetternews/medicane-trixie-bedroht-kreta-10673.html

https://www.facebook.com/CaribbeanWeatherCenter/posts/881229912011549:0

http://wetterkanal.kachelmannwetter.com/medicane-zieht-nach-griechenland/

https://socialfeed.info/a-quite-impressive-visible-satellite-of-medicane-trixie-which-caused-high-waves-8189764

https://twitter.com/DWD_presse/status/792735903315816448

Something seasonal: Gabrielle? Kaspar?The first has got too many syllables for medicane's 3 so I'm going with Kaspar.

When and where do you reckon the first resultant surface conditions will present themselves? NE coast of Majorca maybe?

 

Doesn't have to begin with U; Trixie didn't follow a storm beginning with S.

Choose wisely; the name could go viral like it did last time!

http://www.weer.nl/nieuws/detail/2016-10-30-medicane-trixie-op-weg-naar-kreta/

http://www.wetter.net/wetternews/medicane-trixie-bedroht-kreta-10673.html

https://www.facebook.com/CaribbeanWeatherCenter/posts/881229912011549:0

http://wetterkanal.kachelmannwetter.com/medicane-zieht-nach-griechenland/

https://socialfeed.info/a-quite-impressive-visible-satellite-of-medicane-trixie-which-caused-high-waves-8189764

https://twitter.com/DWD_presse/status/792735903315816448

 

Didn't it follow Stephanie in September (although not a true medicane)?

 

Didn't it follow Stephanie in September (although not a true medicane)?

Ah yes  sorry I completely forgot that.

But anyway I don't think we have to follow the convention rigorously. But if anyone has a good name beginning with U we could use it.

6Z has quite a long transitional period before the system finally becomes tropical like near the baleric islands.

ICON cloud fraction showing eye wall! System still hasn't transitioned completely to tropical like in this one though with the occluded front still visible to the north west of the system.

Cyclone phase maps somewhat less impressive this morning

Seems to be that despite conditions being good, the system is struggling to transition from extra tropical to tropical like.

Could it re-energise Q? The latest GFS output (12z still rolling out) is increasing the lower altitude temperatures (850) to the south of the storm to above 15C again; would the increased vertical thermal profile to those colder 500s make a difference?

Could it re-energise Q? The latest GFS output (12z still rolling out) is increasing the lower altitude temperatures (850) to the south of the storm to above 15C again; would the increased vertical thermal profile to those colder 500s make a difference?

I'd still say the odds of medicane formation are high. Some volatility is expected, FI in medicane terms is less than 48 hours.

12Z WRF develops the storm well:

 

Ah yes  sorry I completely forgot that.

But anyway I don't think we have to follow the convention rigorously. But if anyone has a good name beginning with U we could use it.

I think name-wise, it's already covered: didn't someone name Trixie 'Invest 90' or similar? Chid flut name, with no character to it.

I'm gonna do a poll on the suggested names and pick one :)

https://twitter.com/QuantumOverlord/status/810446764524404736

WRF 6Z shows a pretty potent storm:

In a completely different place on the 18Z

They are so hard to get right! Incidentally Kasper is the name that seemed to gain the most approval.