Only just picked up on your latest observations Q; how convinced are you that this will develop into a medicane, according to your criteria? I note the conditions and location are right, and a warm core is forecast through to 20th, but the GFS 0z this morning seems to have the 500mb cold spilling into Spain by 20th, with the structured low staying close to the Balearics. Should I be looking higher up than the 500?
I'd say the odds are good, perhaps 60-70%
And yes the core of the upper cold moves over to spain
But these 500hpa temps are more than cold enough for Medicane development, and actually substantially colder than what we had for Trixie.
The window of opportunity is also quite large; there is ample opportunity for a medicane to develop given these conditions.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.