So Kaspar looks to be projected further east. I wonder if the SSTs there are lower than around the Balearics, as the Euro high has been pulling some cold air down for some time in the east. Trixie really got going as it moved towards Greece IIRC.

Edit: the 00z has it drifting towards Corsica but then returning towards Menorca:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_72_mslp850.png?cb=375

GFS back to developing a deepish warm core for Kaspar!

I like these graphs but am ashamed to say I don't understand them other than what Q points out (ie the warm core). Anyone recommend a link/ site that explains the two variables that define the graph?

First look at developing Medicane Kaspar. And she is a beauty!

Loads of convection, even signs of an eye wall starting to develop. Pretty big too!

Not a true medicane yet, but not purely extratropical either.

I like these graphs but am ashamed to say I don't understand them other than what Q points out (ie the warm core). Anyone recommend a link/ site that explains the two variables that define the graph?

Docs on interpretating cyclone phase space maps here:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/help.html

The upshot is, we want a warm symmetrical warm cored system; there are only two classes of storm that have these properties. 1) Tropical cyclones (including medicanes), 2) Warm secluded systems and subtropical systems.

Subsequent phase diagrams can eliminate 2), however this isn't as easy with medicanes as they have many similarities with subtropical systems too. To be honest I think medicanes really are unique. I always call them 'tropical like' rather than tropical because I personally believe they deserve a class of their own, not tropical, subtropical or extratropical.

Quite an amazing projection from the 12Z.

This storm is not projected to make landfall which means it has a greater chance at intensification. Its biggest limiting factor may well be upwelling cooler water to the surface. Still; what a beautiful storm!

 

Docs on interpretating cyclone phase space maps here:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/help.html

 

The upshot is, we want a warm symmetrical warm cored system; there are only two classes of storm that have these properties. 1) Tropical cyclones (including medicanes), 2) Warm secluded systems and subtropical systems.

Subsequent phase diagrams can eliminate 2), however this isn't as easy with medicanes as they have many similarities with subtropical systems too. To be honest I think medicanes really are unique. I always call them 'tropical like' rather than tropical because I personally believe they deserve a class of their own, not tropical, subtropical or extratropical.

 

 

I get this. Good link. Thanks.

Pinhole eye type system.

I suspect WRF has overdone it, but this is, like Trixie, an unusually strong medicane. Catogary 1 cannot be ruled out.

Again suspect anomalous run, I doubt it will be as strong as this.

These cyclone phase maps are actually better than Trixie was.

I doubt it will beat Trixie, that was a very strong storm but its not out of the question.

Can still see Kaspar on the cloud vis chart at midnight tonight, but he seems to lose his structure thereafter- to the untrained eye, that is. Is it all over by tomorrow?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_18_NAprecipratec.png?cb=636

Can still see Kaspar on the cloud vis chart at midnight tonight, but he seems to lose his structure thereafter- to the untrained eye, that is. Is it all over by tomorrow?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_18_NAprecipratec.png?cb=636

 

Things certainly don't look good for Kaspar; we will have to see.

What happens if you dump some of the coldest upper tropospheric air I have ever seen directly into the mediteranian?

Answer; I don't know. But its time to brush the dust off this thread once again and come up with a name just in case!

I mean clearly we have our ridiculously cold upper level air; the question is can we get our lower level warm core? Possibly. The temperature at 500hpa won't warm as it moves over the med but the temp at 850hpa will.

Very weak medicane formed this morning near Greece. No time for intensification before making landfall.

This one appeared out of nowhere!

Twin medicanes?!

Somehow I doubt it. Two medicanes at once is an exceptionally rare occurance. A medicane in the Adriatic is also considered to be exceptionally rare.

What the deuce!? A third one?!  (bottom left)

WTH is going on.

WRF 0.05 on the twin medicanes. The model can't even agree with itself. The first one intensifies appreciably before hitting Scicily. The 2nd one doesn't have time before it hits Italy. Quite different to the 0.1

What the deuce!? A third one?!

 

 

WTH is going on.

You've watched 'The Day After Tomorrow', yeah?

Well I'm calling it. Medicane formed this morning. Here is one visible image of it. Anyone have any ideas for what we should call it?

Unusually small system.

Here it is at 11:30. I think it is already past its peak as the land interaction is causing weakening.

Its notable how small the system is, medicanes are small systems; but this one is unusually tiny.