Russwirral
08 December 2015 22:19:54
18z run is trying to do something... Scndi high is almost developing....

Just another option in FI
Arcus
08 December 2015 22:22:33

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


And now for something completely different - I give you the 18z at 138 hours:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1


When there is so much variation in the output. you know something is brewing.



And I give you this


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1502.gif


as yet another example of how much the models are struggling. The disputed genesis of this development is much earlier on, hence the degree of scepticism on anything beyond 3 days at present. Shannon!


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Solar Cycles
08 December 2015 22:26:46
FI starts around +96 for me, of course we know now that the rest of December is going to mild.😜
Maunder Minimum
08 December 2015 22:29:22

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

FI starts around +96 for me, of course we know now that the rest of December is going to mild.😜


The 18Z is problematic - sure, it gives a Scandi HP, but it is damn all use to us in the given timeframe, because heights remain stubbornly high over central Europe,


A Scandi HP without LP to our south is as much use as a chocolate teapot.


New world order coming.
Stormchaser
08 December 2015 22:38:13
Technically an outlier is an outcome further than 1 or 2 standard deviations from the mean. Obviously calculating the size of a standard deviation each time over would be a right pain so its best to just go with any runs a long way from the majority as a guide. So there can be several outliers in a suite.

I see that LP from the subtropics is causing a lot of issues. The 18z GFS op has moved toward ECM wrt that but other elements remain different.
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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
08 December 2015 22:40:49

I have to say next week Monday GFS and UKMO have more rain, but a Weaker Cyclonic Low- this looks like a downer ahem.


Another one way out in SouthWest in West N Atlantic has both mild air and cool air in it cyclonic flow.


Looks like Cold with some hill Snow this Thursday Friday in NW then North UK, light winds and mild in South generally at same time Thurs Fri.


Looks like Cool high pressure this Weekend, feeling mild.


That Low in SW of NW Atlantic could head 300 miles ENE from next week Monday to Tuesday, dragging cold air into it from SE Canada & South Greenland High.


Our Monday Low with mild SW winds could move 300 mile NE with colder air move into Western and NW UK - Central and Mid North Atlantic to West SW UK high build from Tuesday 12:00 to following Wednesday, with winds a northerly as Tuesday Low goes to North Sea and North Sea SW Norway, linking with Cold Arctic Low from NW Norwegian Sea and Low move South from Svalbard during Wednesday and Thursday next Week.


Tuesday Low deepens with some Cyclonic winds over the UK heavy rain then blustery showers quite possible, mild in Central SE UK but even here it could turn colder with cold NW winds Tuesday night onwards next week.


 


😆😀🌦🌧💦


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Solar Cycles
08 December 2015 23:04:43

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


The 18Z is problematic - sure, it gives a Scandi HP, but it is damn all use to us in the given timeframe, because heights remain stubbornly high over central Europe,


A Scandi HP without LP to our south is as much use as a chocolate teapot.


Height rises to our east is what I'm looking for ( not like they deliver much IMBY ) until the latter end of the month then we're playing pin the tail on the donkey on where any favourable ( if any ) warming of the strat  leaves us.

Gooner
08 December 2015 23:49:04

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

FI starts around +96 for me, of course we know now that the rest of December is going to mild.😜


Its all over the shop , I'll give you that


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
08 December 2015 23:58:12


Just to kid myself there is something worth waiting for


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
09 December 2015 00:00:14

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Just to kid myself there is something worth waiting for


The countdown begins.😄

moomin75
09 December 2015 00:03:40

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Just to kid myself there is something worth waiting for


That won't come off as that's the day I return from Australia. January will see all the snow when I'm not around.  ðŸ˜‚


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
09 December 2015 06:25:03
Not much change this morning - there are still two distinct clusters after this weekend, a milder (but not as mild as present) option and a colder option. The balance of probability is swinging back and forth (the 0z GEFS has the colder cluster being dominant) but again that's expected as the models continue to struggle with the upstream pattern. Last night's 12z ECM control was one of the milder cluster, showing a generally zonal outlook.

(And to answer Brian's question from yesterday, I'd consider a pattern change to be anything that takes us away from the overwhelmingly mild setup we have had for the past couple of weeks. That could take the form of zonal (as per the milder cluster) or a more blocked pattern (as per the colder cluster); it would need to be a week or more of that for me to consider it a change.)
Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 December 2015 06:38:07
Anyone who loves records will be crossing fingers the ultra mild option as shown on a couple of runs yesterday will win out. We have a chance of a record warm December. Let's keep the cold for the new year.

I've not been paying attention to the models for a few days. Came in here and got the impression we were about to have a cold snap. Then looked at this morning's GEFS and got a very different impression. Looked damn mild to me.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Maunder Minimum
09 December 2015 06:49:41

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Anyone who loves records will be crossing fingers the ultra mild option as shown on a couple of runs yesterday will win out. We have a chance of a record warm December. Let's keep the cold for the new year.

I've not been paying attention to the models for a few days. Came in here and got the impression we were about to have a cold snap. Then looked at this morning's GEFS and got a very different impression. Looked damn mild to me.


Just damn then!


As for breaking records - Idon't think we want any more rainfall records broken thank you very much.


New world order coming.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 December 2015 06:54:15

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Anyone who loves records will be crossing fingers the ultra mild option as shown on a couple of runs yesterday will win out. We have a chance of a record warm December. Let's keep the cold for the new year.

I've not been paying attention to the models for a few days. Came in here and got the impression we were about to have a cold snap. Then looked at this morning's GEFS and got a very different impression. Looked damn mild to me.


 


If we don't get a cold spell we will smash the record that's for sure. We could well finish witha December cet above 9c and that after the third warmest November. Crazy surreal weather.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gusty
09 December 2015 07:12:08

Cooler for a time this weekend, especially in the north before milder air pushes in from the south again from Sunday and Monday would be my appraisal of the models this morning.


At face value a deep cold trough over Scandinava looks tempting but higher heights over Greenland continue to only appear in FI and high pressure dominant over Europe throughout maintains the mild status quo, especially the south.


IMO the GEFS ensembles don'toffer too much hope for the coldies at the moment but this can change as we all know.


A record breaking mild December is also very much on the cards if the synoptics continue to play out the way they are. 


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Ally Pally Snowman
09 December 2015 07:14:59

Well the ECM is an absolute stinker. Who's up for a record cet?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Shropshire
09 December 2015 07:16:51

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Anyone who loves records will be crossing fingers the ultra mild option as shown on a couple of runs yesterday will win out. We have a chance of a record warm December. Let's keep the cold for the new year.

I've not been paying attention to the models for a few days. Came in here and got the impression we were about to have a cold snap. Then looked at this morning's GEFS and got a very different impression. Looked damn mild to me.


 


How do you know the cold will come in the New Year ? Mild Decembers over the last 20 years have nearly always been followed by mild Januarys and Februarys according to my records.


 


Dreadful output today, feel desperately sorry for the flood stricken areas with so much more to come. 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
nsrobins
09 December 2015 07:19:00
Although I'd like to be seeing a few sub -10 members by now, I believe the period around the 14th and the behaviour of the 'warm' trough still needs resolving. A cool, seasonal weekend will at least be a pleasant change for many and if it does stay mild until the end of the year, it will be no different than many LRFs proposed given the ENSO status.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Maunder Minimum
09 December 2015 07:26:22

I give up! No more model watching for me, it is a complete waste of time given our stinking climate!


New world order coming.
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