(And to answer Brian's question from yesterday, I'd consider a pattern change to be anything that takes us away from the overwhelmingly mild setup we have had for the past couple of weeks. That could take the form of zonal (as per the milder cluster) or a more blocked pattern (as per the colder cluster); it would need to be a week or more of that for me to consider it a change.)

 Seems reasonable to me. 

IMO the most likely severe weather possibilities in the next couple of week are:

1) Further serious flooding

2) December CET potentially the mildest recorded

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I give up! No more model watching for me, it is a complete waste of time given our stinking climate!

It certainly seems like our Eternal Autumn is set to continue for some time yet. The one hope for me is the frequency with which the runs flirt with a pattern change. Nothing in the next 7-10 days of course, but a change will come.

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It certainly seems like our Eternal Autumn is set to continue for some time yet. The one hope for me is the frequency with which the runs flirt with a pattern change. Nothing in the next 7-10 days of course, but a change will come.

Of course it will, just most likely in spring.

 

With the slug to our south for the moment our winter is on hold, especially down south. 

I give up! No more model watching for me, it is a complete waste of time given our stinking climate!

As I said yesterday....live stress free and stick to the MetO 5 day faxes. IMO the most accurate. After 5 days it's Fantasy Island anyway!

For me up here, the faxes keep showing brief colder incursions of sub 528 dam air so we get brief snow events. We've had 4 already this season and we are not sharing in England's exceptional mildness just stormy and wet mostly.

 

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Unusual warmth in many eastern U.S. cities over the weekend Washington New York St Louis Chicago and Ottawa in Canada also likely to see temps 20f above average.

 

As I said yesterday....live stress free and stick to the MetO 5 day faxes. IMO the most accurate. After 5 days it's Fantasy Island anyway!

For me up here, the faxes keep showing brief colder incursions of sub 528 dam air so we get brief snow events. We've had 4 already this season and we are not sharing in England's exceptional mildness just stormy and wet mostly.

 

 

Are you kidding ?

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 Seems reasonable to me. 

IMO the most likely severe weather possibilities in the next couple of week are:

1) Further serious flooding

2) December CET potentially the mildest recorded

Agree Brian. Mild is the theme in Norway too and in fact, across much of the so-called N Hemisphere winter zones.

 

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As I said yesterday....live stress free and stick to the MetO 5 day faxes. IMO the most accurate. After 5 days it's Fantasy Island anyway!

For me up here, the faxes keep showing brief colder incursions of sub 528 dam air so we get brief snow events. We've had 4 already this season and we are not sharing in England's exceptional mildness just stormy and wet mostly.

 

Where I live, it hasn't been as persistently mild since mid-November as it had been during the first half of that month. There have been more by way of colder days in between the milder ones.

Like I said yesterday, and as I think Neil alluded to above, the issue of the behaviour of the LP to the west of the UK this coming weekend needs to be resoved before we can be anywhere approaching sure of where we go from there. This feature does seem to have been causing the models some issues, to my eyes.

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The atmosphere is responding in full Nino mode but there are signs of this waning now and this month is far from resolved despite the doomsayers in here and the those looking for records ( good grief who wants anymore of this ).

All of the of the output over the last few days has been a dogs dinner and until they've a better handle on the upstream pattern for next week then it's still all to play for.

FWIW  GEFS shows the following splits mild:cold  180h 50:50 HP  cold members have HP close or over UK. 240h 50:50 360h 85:15 after a period of slacker circulation, stronger zonal circulation is back in time for Xmas.

the only hope I can offer is that the HP shown around 180h spreads and ends up in a more favourable postion.

Charts changes run to run seem to be a bit chaotic with some notable changes even in the reliable. Each run holds its own interest for the time being.

The atmosphere seems to be in a very chaotic state at the moment with a whole range of options shown on the ECM and MOGREPS ensembles for Christmas week., zonal westerly, Northerly outbreak, anticyclone even some easterlies. Slight favourite is a Euro high

The atmosphere seems to be in a very chaotic state at the moment with a whole range of options shown on the ECM and MOGREPS ensembles for Christmas week., zonal westerly, Northerly outbreak, anticyclone even some easterlies. Slight favourite is a Euro high

Not with me, it isn't

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Not with me, it isn't

 

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December still looking a total write off then? Who would have thought that? Record December CET very much on the cards now. Just feel sorry for the flood hit areas as the charts show no solace. Anyone would take a cold high over this now. Shockingly bad charts again. Can start thinking January could follow suit too before long. Never has a pattern change been more sought after.

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December still looking a total write off then? Who would have thought that? Record December CET very much on the cards now. Just feel sorry for the flood hit areas as the charts show no solace. Anyone would take a cold high over this now. Shockingly bad charts again. Can start thinking January could follow suit too before long. Never has a pattern change been more sought after.

 

Totally agree, apparently the METO guy Ian has tweeted that there is no change in sight into January. The winter could break all manner of rainfall/temp records.

 

 

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The atmosphere seems to be in a very chaotic state at the moment with a whole range of options shown on the ECM and MOGREPS ensembles for Christmas week., zonal westerly, Northerly outbreak, anticyclone even some easterlies. Slight favourite is a Euro high

 

Slight favourite ? I think its rather more of an odds on shot ! 

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looking cold this weekend north of the Midlands

Possible snow for Pennines, and parts of Northern england.

With a bit of luck - it could even make its way to lower ground.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/h850t850eu.png

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/ukmaxtemp.png

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/prectypeuktopo.png

 

Temps into Sunday:

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/102/ukmaxtemp.png

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Totally agree, apparently the METO guy Ian has tweeted that there is no change in sight into January. The winter could break all manner of rainfall/temp records.

 

 

Not being funny but that was for the SW and he said any prolonged or significant cold weather, how often does the SW get that ???

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looking cold this weekend north of the Midlands

Possible snow for Pennines, and parts of Northern england.

With a bit of luck - it could even make its way to lower ground.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/h850t850eu.png

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/ukmaxtemp.png

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/78/prectypeuktopo.png

 

Temps into Sunday:

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151209/06/102/ukmaxtemp.png

A reasonable synopsis that appears to have been lost amongst the toys heaping up underneath the prams

06GFS  - it's an easterly, don't knock it LOL

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