Usual rules.

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I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.

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I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.

Is this your LRF for this winter? 

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I bet it won't even last two-thirds of winter!

The models are still looking good in terms of a change away from this persistent mild gunk with this weekend set to feel quite different from the last few down here at least!

Both GEFS and ECM-EPS show that after the weekend there are two options on the table. One is a return to zonality, albeit not the silly levels of warmth we've had recently. The other option is a pattern which includes some actual cold weather, which would feel absolutely perishing compared to the daily excursions into the teens we've had of late.

A winter wonderland still isn't likely, but the building blocks are still failling into place. The top of the stratosphere is still going to see an injection of warmth and lower down the forecast from ECM at least is for the zonal winds to reverse above about 70N in the mid-term - a sure sign of high pressure over the Arctic!

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ 
(click Zonal Wind charts - negative numbers mean the flow is east-to-west rather than west-to-east).

It then becomes a game of seeing just where that Arctic high ends up. The more interesting runs (in terms of cold) have it linking in some shape or form with a ridge from the Azores - it's the sort of thing we need to be looking out for in terms of seeing whether we get merely average weather or a cold spell. For now, it's too far out to draw any conclusions other than that the past few weeks worth of seemingly endless mild gunk look unlikely to be repeated after this weekend.

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I bet it won't even last two-thirds of winter!

The models are still looking good in terms of a change away from this persistent mild gunk with this weekend set to feel quite different from the last few down here at least!

Both GEFS and ECM-EPS show that after the weekend there are two options on the table. One is a return to zonality, albeit not the silly levels of warmth we've had recently. The other option is a pattern which includes some actual cold weather, which would feel absolutely perishing compared to the daily excursions into the teens we've had of late.

A winter wonderland still isn't likely, but the building blocks are still failling into place. The top of the stratosphere is still going to see an injection of warmth and lower down the forecast from ECM at least is for the zonal winds to reverse above about 70N in the mid-term - a sure sign of high pressure over the Arctic!

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/
(click Zonal Wind charts - negative numbers mean the flow is east-to-west rather than west-to-east).

It then becomes a game of seeing just where that Arctic high ends up. The more interesting runs (in terms of cold) have it linking in some shape or form with a ridge from the Azores - it's the sort of thing we need to be looking out for in terms of seeing whether we get merely average weather or a cold spell. For now, it's too far out to draw any conclusions other than that the past few weeks worth of seemingly endless mild gunk look unlikely to be repeated after this weekend.

This will be the key to any potential pattern change for our little neck in the woods, or we could end up with the remains of the PV still anchored in an unfavourable spot still. Scandi height rises are the form horse for me as  we head towards Xmas , so we really need that Arctic high to play ball so we can get a more pronounced block backing west.

Around +180 GEM ( and also CMA) show a weak extension of the arctic high nosing southwards with some small depressions running east underneath it over the southern UK. This would be where I would look for an early opportunity of a cold outbreak. It wouldn't take much tweaking for a much more favourable outcome- although both GEM and CMA collapse the high quickly.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015120712/gemnh-0-180.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2015120712/cmanh-0-180.png?12

There seems more than the usual model uncertainty past this weekend at the moment, with them all struggling with the complex set up after Fridays bog standard winter low moves eastwards. Maybe some short term and unexpected changes over the next few runs. Quite a few cold ensemble members popped up on the 12z GEFS.

Regards,

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Around +180 GEM ( and also CMA) show a weak extension of the arctic high nosing southwards with some small depressions running east underneath it over the southern UK. This would be where I would look for an early opportunity of a cold outbreak. It wouldn't take much tweaking for a much more favourable outcome- although both GEM and CMA collapse the high quickly.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015120712/gemnh-0-180.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2015120712/cmanh-0-180.png?12

There seems more than the usual model uncertainty past this weekend at the moment, with them all struggling with the complex set up after Fridays bog standard winter low moves eastwards. Maybe some short term and unexpected changes over the next few runs. Quite a few cold ensemble members popped up on the 12z GEFS.

Regards,

The 12h GEFS shows the mild cold split at 50:50 for both 240h and 360h.However there is little cohesion in the cold ENs -most are some form of cold north westerly or northerly with a sprinkling of easterlies.

On 50:50 I'd back mild as the winner.However if we start getting a consistent majority of cold ENS there  maybe some hope of a cold snap before the years end.

 

Is this your LRF for this winter? 

Better than last years eh K

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I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.

 

If you continue to sound like a stuck record, it'll feel like it has lasted all winter

 

 

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If you continue to sound like a stuck record, it'll feel like it has lasted all winter

 

 

Lol. Yeh but after a long winter without me what would you do? Just getting my posts in now before I depart these shores for a couple of months in Oz.

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Cripes! look at the monster low heading for the Bering Straits:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0&carte=1

 

 

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GFS18z brings a cold snap southwards next week.

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That's a desperate call Brian if ever I saw one. 😜 Lol. A brief cooler spell with temps just around average, but a tad more seasonal I guess.

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I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.

Very constructive, thank you. 

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There's still some options in the suite, but not enough to call anything other than the mean solution which is a cooler version of what we have now.
I think we'll see something more seasonal from the weekend though at some point. Not much of a prediction I know but there's not much else to say lol

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That's a desperate call Brian if ever I saw one. 😜 Lol. A brief cooler spell with temps just around average, but a tad more seasonal I guess.

Below to be precise K

Feel like the Artic to you though

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The hemispheric synoptics are quite interesting and the vortex is indeed torn apart.
The tragedy for the UK is the Euroslug, which thwarts all attempts to dislodge it and so we miss out on the real fun and stay average to mild.
The weather Gods are playing with us and causing much wailing and gnashing of teeth.
The UK weather is a Greek tragedy!

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Both the ECM15 control run from yesterday's 12z and the ECM32 control run from yesterday show a long period of changeable weather - lows followed by ridges followed by more lows. They're both representative of the milder cluster of runs - and as can be seen here, there's still a large divide between the mild and cold clusters:

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Looks as if there are some windows of opportunity on the models for something more interesting to happen but it never quite does. I understand the monthly latest from the ECM is more of the same albeit less wet.

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Looks as if there are some windows of opportunity on the models for something more interesting to happen but it never quite does. I understand the monthly latest from the ECM is more of the same albeit less wet.

If you've got that from "the other side", be careful as it's based entirely on mean charts. The control run for example shows a marked change in that instead of getting near-constant mild, dull weather we'll be seeing a seasonal mix of wind, rain, sun, frost - the works.

As you can see from the ECM spaghetti plot in my earlier post, the mean (in yellow) doesn't actually represent anything...

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