GFS0z was a mild outlier but if it came off we would be looking at a blowtorch Xmas away from Scotland. 

 

---

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

All rather academic though from one chart at day 15. Up here at least the outlook for the next week is more seasonal, just not especially cold, rather average - further south still a bit above and unfortunately still rather wet at times in some western parts.

---

As Darren said how anyone can be confident on 10 days plus is beyond comprehension - look at the spread on the ENS across the model range.
And with the PV shot, and some warming forecast at 2-5hPa, some fascinating synoptics are being toyed with.

---

GFS0z was a mild outlier but if it came off we would be looking at a blowtorch Xmas away from Scotland. 

 

So a BBQ xmas then,I would not be at all surprised now to see those kind of temperatures this year,the uk`s eternal autumn goes on and on.

Very close to what we want sadly the Atlantic looks too fired up

---

Not for the first time the Control looks for an Easterly

---

Very close to what we want sadly the Atlantic looks too fired up

I think that is to misread the chart. I don't think the Atlantic is fired up at all - the problem we have is with the stubborn Euro HP which won't give way - that steers the wind in from the SW with its damp and drizzly muck.

 

---

Could be a bit of snow for high ground of northern england this week, it also looks to reload a day later.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_111_mslp500.png?cb=332 

This little feature has the potential to deliver to lower levels if the charts progress a little more in the right direction.

---

Not for the first time the Control looks for an Easterly

I think we need to be looking east for any colder weather until we see a change in the upstream pattern, I still feel an easterly of sorts will take hold for the final third of the month and before that more seasonable albeit changeable spell ahead with TM/PM air.

I've managed to be much more relaxed these days by ONLY looking each morning at the MetO 5 day fax charts...I feel fitter and sleep better. It's been a long struggle and even now I do sometimes peek at the 144hr if I'm having a weak day.
If this weans just one TWO member off the madness of the longer range charts, it's been worth it! 😆

---

I've managed to be much more relaxed these days by ONLY looking each morning at the MetO 5 day fax charts...I feel fitter and sleep better. It's been a long struggle and even now I do sometimes peek at the 144hr if I'm having a weak day.
If this weans just one TWO member off the madness of the longer range charts, it's been worth it! 😆

You make it sound like we need some sort of therapy. 😂😂😂

I've managed to be much more relaxed these days by ONLY looking each morning at the MetO 5 day fax charts...I feel fitter and sleep better. It's been a long struggle and even now I do sometimes peek at the 144hr if I'm having a weak day.
If this weans just one TWO member off the madness of the longer range charts, it's been worth it! 😆

Yes the madness of longer range charts.If you cant find anything cold looking in the short term there  is solice in finding the odd bitterly cold ensemble member>however like a mirage they usually fade way as you get closer to the present!

So today's peek at the 240h and 360h GEFS ens.At 240h 50:50 spit mild : cold with most of cold members being anticyclones over or close to the UK.So not a cold airflow as such but enough for a frost or two.And an opportunity for HP to shift into amore favourable posoition although low probability.At 360h 65:35 split with zonal dominant.

There's clearly a lot to be resolved in the mid-term - some very different runs in the T+90 to T+168 period depicting quite a complex set-up in terms of path and intensity of these runner lows and the ridging of high pressure around them. Anything beyond that is even more speculative than usual.

---

Interesting

---

That's one hell of a temperature contrast

---

Interesting

Very interesting indeed. The entire set up seems to be on a knifedge and a tweak here and there in the earlier part of the run, would end up in an entirely different set up. The High over Southern Greenland/Iceland is under attack North and South and very uncertain where this run is going to head from here 

---

well then.....

hope and praying this isnt a cold outlier - ive a sneaky suspicion it might be. :(

Proper winter storm that.

---

A cold feed and good to see , before the HP settles over us

 

---

Most significant warming of the upper strat to date from the GFS by Xmas really. This would have some impact...

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

---

well then.....

hope and praying this isnt a cold outlier - ive a sneaky suspicion it might be. :(

Proper winter storm that.

I was just thinking the same, it would be a snow fest here in the Cairngorms would that and indeed for many Northern areas.

12z will no doubt be completely different