LOL at ECM op. I think it was thrown in on purpose just to keep the site traffic going.

Odds on for a record breaking warm December

Classic

The North Atlantic cold pool, is not what is was and has weakened a lot.

Looks pretty robust to me.

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Lets be honest, we have a cold pool in the north atlantic and and warm mid atlantic. There is only ever going to be one outcome from that.

Which is what ????

 

You can't say that then leg it???

Clearly you can

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Interesting ECM at day 10 but it's a big outlier. 

Vs ENS anomalies

"Interesting ECM at day 10 but it's a big outlier. "

The Op may be an outlier, but hope springs eternal - I wouldn't trash it yet - let's see what further runs produce.

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ECM op not a complete outlier at day 10. One or two even colder runs in the ensemble.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

 

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ECM op not a complete outlier at day 10. One or two even colder runs in the ensemble.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

 

Trendsetter ?    

The 0z ECM-15 control has a high to the east at 240 with southerlies and SSE'lies over the UK. By 360 pressure builds to the NE, with high pressure remaining to the east. There are lighter SSE'lies over the UK as a result.

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Interesting ECM at day 10 but it's a big outlier. 

Vs ENS anomalies

LOL but not without interest- even if the ENS as a group are correct then the core of the high is drifting North towards Scandy. Remember the skew on these things- the result could be a cooler ESE flow.

A little more interest, and as SFB has just mentioned one or two quite cold stragglers in the mix.

Hmmm, seems this thread has overrun a little. Better start a new one before I get my knuckles rapped!

Closing this one shortly.

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