ECM ensembles shows the operational as a big warm outlier, while the control is on the cool side. Models flip flopping all over the place
Martin

Its not an outlier, it is on the milder side of the ensembles with some support.  An outlier means it is out of kilter with other ens runs.

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Its not an outlier, it is on the milder side of the ensembles with some support.  An outlier means it is out of kilter with other ens runs.

Call for Darren

 

DAAAARRRRRRRRREEEEEEENNNNNNNNN

 

LOL

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http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png 

In the medium to longer term it is certainly on of the warmer options with a big "averagish" cluster.

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Its not an outlier, it is on the milder side of the ensembles with some support.  An outlier means it is out of kilter with other ens runs.

Very little, it has to be said

 

Thanks Michael 

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Whatever we want to call it, all the main models seem to be having these type of runs with the operational runs being colder in general than the pack and then warmer in general than the pack. At least it keeps us on our toes!
Martin

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Very little, it has to be said

 

 

No, it has support as you can see, at times not far from the mean.

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It is fairly representative until day 6 (next Monday) after that it could for all intents and purposes be declared an outlier.

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It is fairly representative until day 6 (next Monday) after that it could for all intents and purposes be declared an outlier.

your definition of outlier is very different from mine.

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your definition of outlier is very different from mine.

Indeed, doesn't look much of an outlier to me, unless I am missing something?

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It is fairly representative until day 6 (next Monday) after that it could for all intents and purposes be declared an outlier.

Yes, it is what it looks like to me.

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your definition of outlier is very different from mine.

Well the (not my) fpdefinitin if an outlier is smelling that is not part of a group of representative or a main grouping. If you think that the ECM does not fit that description in the time period I describe that is your prerogative. It is certainly n an outlier in the next 6 days but I have clearly stated that already.

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Indeed, doesn't look much of an outlier to me, unless I am missing something?

Everything is an outlier beyond a certain point, and that point is coming closer compared to normal modelling. Taxi for Shannon? Surname Entropy?

It's all good fun. 

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Indeed, doesn't look much of an outlier to me, unless I am missing something?

Yes, I think you must be.  Do you see the red line from day 6 to 10 that is away from the main groupings? 

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I haven't bothered looking at the models recently. December was always looking like a write off and it still does to be fair. Perhaps something more seasonal but no sign of any snow. All in line will most of the LRFs.

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I still don't get this "outlier" thing. It's a bit like a football fan trying to explain the offside rule to me and I still wouldn't be any wiser for it. I have tried to Google "outlier" but I ended up finding out I have 231 type of illnesses and 145 of them are potentially fatal.

Anyway, back on topic, I'm actually struggling with the outcome for this weekend (will it be a wet or dry one for here at Kent), never mind anything beyond that but I'm sure the water will be less muddy tomorrow morning when I do my next personal forecast.

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Yes, I think you must be.  Do you see the red line from day 6 to 10 that is away from the main groupings? 

 

Only I'm not. The general north Atlantic pattern is not that far removed from the mean at day 10. Local differences such as what your red lines represent mean little when set against the bigger picture.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif  Op at day 10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.gif  Mean at day 10

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O/T

The 21:55 showed nothing of what GFS is showing , in the end went for full on Atlantic attack with LP's hitting the UK

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Nice temperature contrast

Fingers crossed this isnt going to cause yet more rain...

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151208/18/105/ukmaxtemp.png 

Some places could end up with a surprise snow event from this i think

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And now for something completely different - I give you the 18z at 138 hours:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1

When there is so much variation in the output. you know something is brewing.

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Gfs 18z certainly is very different at T132 with the low about six hundred or so miles further south west than on the 12z. At least the models are generating some interest at last!

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