Nice to see Eastern Europe getting the cool and wet weather. They've had nothing but warm/hot summers for the past 10/11 years whilst we've had the drivel. It's about time we had a role reversal!

The GFS and ECMWF 12z, are showing the Opposites to each other at T144-168 et all!.

UKMO at T144 for Tuesday is dissimilar for that day Tuesday with a NE SW split in our weather, cool air wins, while for said day the ECMWF and GFS are both showing fine high pressure with mostly normal seasonal temperatures and dry conditions with light variable winds.

Will tomorrow at 144hrs show any change from the blocking High set up erm., cannot see it today more runs to check in next 48hours.

It looks like NW Atlantic SE tracking Low Pressure will try to nudge in to our West and SW, that various air masses can join together and creat convective Thundery showers- I have seen that GFS and ECMWF are pointing us that way and today's UKMO 144 is getting this idea, we just need to tap into air from our south, hot sunny, and wet showery thunderstorms from our SW are possible we need the SE tracking shortwave Low from NW Atlantic to be entering SW of N and NE UK High that the Models need to continue to bring on, as yet today's UKMO 144 could be heading that way, ECMWF 12z run today has very cool and wet weather with North C N Atlantic to UK Polar Vortex Low- the UKMO has that as well, with one for Norway and Finland to NE Europe being shown on GFS and ECMWF with long fetch cool arctic NW flow, as it bring East NE UK NW flow on Tuesday!!.

GFS00z really letting the heat rip! Just one run and one piece of the jigsaw puzzle. Nonetheless I wonder whether something notable could be on the way? 

Overnight GEFS now mostly keep it warm / very warm next week. #blowtorch

Also worth noting UKMO at 144 now more aligned with the GFS. Interesting!

Very very hot ECM run so far..

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Temps approaching the mid thirties I'd imagine, particularly towards Gloucestershire/Bristol area in line with the highest 850's. 

As much as I usually like hot weather, I feel the same. We have my mum's funeral next Thursday and I'd rather it not be too hot or thundery.  But we'll have to take what comes. 

20c 850s next Thursday/Friday in the SE. The heat in Spain and France is staggering!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

But a blocking high was setting up in the Atlantic and signs are for a 2012-like summer. Right?

My guess (as I wouldn't be obnoxious enough to spout such things as claiming I'll be proved right) is for a summer of patterns like we've seen. Brief, possibly increasingly hotter waves of southerly plumes lapping on the southern U.K. Shores like waves lapping on a beach, interspersed with unsettled spells.

Thanks for the welcomes. I'm not back. I still read this thread occasionally and it's clear there are still one or two trolls on this site. No names mentioned. 

Weekend looking fantastic and I have a Bristol harbourside pub crawl to attend. Tough eh?

Always guesswork, but I'm with you on my feeling for the summer! 

Very very hot ECM run so far..

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Temps approaching the mid thirties I'd imagine, particularly towards Gloucestershire/Bristol area in line with the highest 850's. 

Could be a legendary Glastonbury for the right reasons this year.

 

 

Could be a legendary Glastonbury for the right reasons this year.

 

 

Could be a legendary Glastonbury for the right reasons this year.

I hope so as I am going!!! 

At least it's looking dry (at the moment) for the run up to the festival which is very different to last year. 

Overnight GEFS now mostly keep it warm / very warm next week. #blowtorch

shades of the summers of 13/14 ☀ And they were both crackers. 

Only four days away now yet still a significant difference between UKMO and  GFS in terms of how strong the section of the ridge to the west of the UK is versus that to the east.

GFS has actually reverted more toward the stronger western feature compared to the previous two runs. Typical! At least it doesn't result in anything worse than some fresher air although it does turn rather cool near and along the eastern coasts.

Pleasing to see the HP ballooning strongly across the UK on the UKMO run while GFS also has it drifting steadily east. The models have converged here in terms of the SLP pattern, but UKMO has brought less in the way of cool air into the circulation so it would likely be warmer for central parts than what GFS shows. Slack winds mean cooling of easternmost parts should be mostly down to sea breezes on this day.

Not clear whether it would still be very warm in the far south; it's a fine margin between that and something more like 22-24*C.

As the ridge slows its progression and retains decent strength, and with the shallow low heights over Europe not giving rise to heat lows (cool air unable to achieve sufficient temp gradients far enough from the ridges) there are signs of a classic extended fine spell for the UK with temps gradually heading back upward after the freshening up Mon-Tue (latest to occur down south, if at all here).

Given these two runs, it will be interesting to see whether ECM backs down with it's development of 'heat lows' from Europe and interplay of those with what has also tended to be a stronger N. Atlantic jet than UKMO and GFS are predicting. This latter disagreement likely relates to ECM propagating some MJO activity east from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean while GFS and UKMO keep it stalled out in the Atlantic. The 12z update of the ECM projections for the MJO kept the propagation but weakened the magnitude of it quite a bit so there's hope for the model to tone down the jet stream strength this evening. Fingers crossed as it offers a means of getting the very fine weather right up north.

I think many would join you in wanting the 12z GFS scenario to come to fruition. I'd settle for a dry and sunny day at the moment to be honest.

I normally end up being happy enough if it's over 16°C (counts as warm here) and overcast!