I have mentioned a few times over on the moaning thread that I didn't really hold out much hope for this summer (the high rainfall totals which we have had so far this month and the very poor short-term forecasts seem to be keeping things on course for proving that right just now) despite the promising signs for further into July which has been shown recently on many medium to long term models. However, I have just seen something from Dr. Simon Keeling which seems to be backing that up even more. Looking at the SSTs, we can clearly see that there is a similar sort of cold blob in the mid-Atlantic which was thought to have resulted in that cooler than average summer which we had back in 2015.
However, there is also a lot of warm water around the UK itself, which also extends down into the Mediteranaen. Simon showed us a forecast for not too far into the future which shows the SSTs to have cooled down quite a lot around the UK. It is thought that cold SSTs tend to dampen any convection and be more like to promote the creation of higher than average height and so, it would not surprise me if those promising indications for next month were largely based on that SST forecast since those colder then average SSTs would be likely to promote more ridging around the UK, and this is also supported by those relatively short-term predictions for the both the AO and NAO to return to a more positive phase which would indicate a stronger Azores High.
In order to get to those colder SSTs though, the seas around the UK would have to cool down quite a lot in a short period of time for that happen, and that makes this a bit unlikely to happen. Furthermore, warm sea temperatures around the UK tend to create more energy and more instability in the atmosphere, thus promoting lower than average heights around the UK and therefore, increasingly the liklihood of more unsettled weather. Indeed, Simon even thought that this might be at least partly responsible for generating the really unsettled weather which is coming up this week. Added to that is the fact that the models appear to be backing off a bit from that idea of better weather during July and I suspect that those SSTs around the UK being warmer than expected, could be a factor on that.
Furthermore, the longer-term predictions for the AO and NAO seem be pointing to that returning to negative state by the latter part of the summer, thus ensuring that any positive phase in the short term is very short lived. That does not bode well for the rest of the rest of the summer either if that happens. If it is true that the medium term models are backing away from that idea of better weather for July, that means that there will then be no signs of any decent summer, even up until the middle of July at least. I know that it is still early days for this summer but by the middle of July, we will then be half way through the summer, and that will mean that time will already be starting to run out for things turning around and providing us with a decent summer overall.
Added to that is the fact that the NAO and AO could then act against us after that (that is, if it is a decent summer which we are after). That in turn should demonstrate exactly why I'm struggling to see much for this summer.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.