Extreme heat is expected on Monday 18th July and Tuesday 19th July. UK records are under threat and 40C could be recorded for the first time.
The tracker below is being regularly updated and it shows the probability of each event happening on both days. It is calculated using data from several computer models and may differ from other sources.
Probability of the temperature approaching or exceeding 38.7°C in the UK.
Probability of the temperature reaching 40°C in the UK.
The probabilities are calculated using data from the GFS, GEFS, UK Met Office Global, UK Met Office UKV, and CMC GEM models.
Many weather stations have broken the existing UK temperature record and a number have reported over 40C. Not all of the data is available yet, but the highest values currently listed for Tuesday 19th July 2022 are:
Coningsby: 40.3C
St James's Park: 40.2C
Heathrow: 40.2C
Gringley On The Hill: 40.1C
Kew Garden: 40.1C
Northolt: 40.0C
Cambridge: 39.9C
The highest officially reported temperature in the UK on Monday is 38.1°C at Santon Downham. Sometimes there can be delays in publishing data, but if this turns out to be the maximum it will mean 18th July 2022 was the third hottest day on record in the UK.
The hottest 5 days on record in the UK as of 15th July 2022 are listed below.
1) 38.7 °C (101.7 °F) 25 July 2019 Cambridge University Botanic Garden, Cambridgeshire
2) 38.5 °C (101.3 °F) 10 August 2003 Faversham, Kent
3) 37.8 °C (100.0 °F) 31 July 2020 Heathrow, London
4) 37.1 °C (98.8 °F) 3 August 1990 Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
5) 36.7 °C (98.1 °F) 1 July 2015 Heathrow, London
We welcome all press enquiries, whether relating to this feature, or seeking comment on other weather news.
You are subscribed to push notifications.
You are not subscribed.
Click the Notify Me! button and then Allow. You can stop them at any time.
Unsettled weather for the early May bank holiday?
Hot and thundery summer?
Will the relentless rain relent for Easter?
Cheltenham Festival weather
A close to average spring?
Daily weather by email
14 day outlook
Monthly outlook
Seasonal outlook
Christmas weather
See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data