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UK heatwave tracker July 2022

Probability of a new UK temperature record


15/07/2022

Will records be broken?

Extreme heat is expected on Monday 18th July and Tuesday 19th July. UK records are under threat and 40C could be recorded for the first time.

The tracker below is being regularly updated and it shows the probability of each event happening on both days. It is calculated using data from several computer models and may differ from other sources. 

Will a new UK temperature record be set?

Probability of the temperature approaching or exceeding 38.7°C in the UK.

Update issued Mon 18/07 UK record Tue 19/07 UK record
19/07, 11:10 N/A 95%
19/07, 06:50 N/A 95%
18/07, 18:50 N/A 94.9%
18/07, 11:40 71.8% 94.9%
18/07, 07:30 64.1% 92.3%
17/07, 19:05 76.9% 94.9%
17/07, 12:10 71.8% 89.7%
17/07, 09:30 71.8% 84.6%
16/07, 19:45 74.4% 84.6%
16/07, 13:10 76.9% 87.2%
16/07, 07:10 71.8% 87.2%
15/07, 19:10 82.1% 79.5%
15/07, 16:00 71.8% 82.1%
15/07, 12:00 56.5% 84.5%
Table 1: Probability of the temperature exceeding 38.7°C

 

Will 40°C (104°F) be reached in the UK?

Probability of the temperature reaching 40°C in the UK.

Update issued Monday UK 40°C Tuesday UK 40°C
19/07, 11:10 N/A 87.2%
19/07, 06:50 N/A 89%
18/07, 18:50 N/A 82.1%
18/07, 11:40 12.8% 89.7%
18/07, 07:30 5.1% 79.5%
17/07, 19:05 12.8% 84.6%
17/07, 12:10 15.4% 79.5%
17/07, 09:30 17.9% 71.8%
16/07, 19:45 41% 64.1%
16/07, 13:10 43.6% 64.1%
16/07, 07:10 43.6% 59%
15/07, 19:10 53.8% 56.4%
15/07, 16:00 30.8% 56.4%
15/07, 12:00 23% 61.5%
Table 2: Probability of the temperature reaching 40°C

 

The probabilities are calculated using data from the GFS, GEFS, UK Met Office Global, UK Met Office UKV, and CMC GEM models.

New provisional UK record and 40C for the first time

Many weather stations have broken the existing UK temperature record and a number have reported over 40C. Not all of the data is available yet, but the highest values currently listed for Tuesday 19th July 2022 are:

Coningsby: 40.3C

St James's Park: 40.2C

Heathrow: 40.2C

Gringley On The Hill: 40.1C

Kew Garden: 40.1C

Northolt: 40.0C

Cambridge: 39.9C   

The highest officially reported temperature in the UK on Monday is 38.1°C at Santon Downham. Sometimes there can be delays in publishing data, but if this turns out to be the maximum it will mean 18th July 2022 was the third hottest day on record in the UK. 

The UK's hottest days

The hottest 5 days on record in the UK as of 15th July 2022 are listed below.

1) 38.7 °C (101.7 °F) 25 July 2019 Cambridge University Botanic Garden, Cambridgeshire

2) 38.5 °C (101.3 °F) 10 August 2003 Faversham, Kent

3) 37.8 °C (100.0 °F) 31 July 2020 Heathrow, London

4) 37.1 °C (98.8 °F) 3 August 1990 Cheltenham, Gloucestershire

5) 36.7 °C (98.1 °F) 1 July 2015 Heathrow, London

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