Didn’t we see this chart almost exactly the same two and a half weeks ago? 🤣

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx 

(ECM OP go to +240 hours to see what I mean)

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Didn’t we see this chart al,ost exactly the same two and a half weeks ago? 🤣

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx 

(ECM OP go to +240 hours)

We saw a very similar ECM T+240 chart 24 hours ago, with a very tight temperature gradient over the southernmost counties of the country, up to the Northern Home Counties and copious amounts of precipitation . I don’t recall what ECM was showing 17-18 days ago.



 

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It was a channel low that gave us an interesting will it (snow) or won’t it (snow) week long discussion here. In the end it clipped a few southern coastal towns briefly.  The charts at the time looked quite similar.

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A few more glimmers of interest in tonight's runs although consistency is somewhat lacking of late, certainly in the ops. 

Overall I still think we're creeping towards a pattern change with the dominant HP cell to the south losing it's grip and weak heights forming somewhere around Greenland and Iceland in the 8-10 day range. Whether that's enough to coax cold air over the whole of the country is debateable but it has potential at least if you're not fed up with looking for cold just yet.

No signs of a deep freeze by any means but as the ECM and GFS ops show colder air pushing south with LPs taking a reasonably southerly track would be likely to bring some fun snowfall for some areas.

Be nice to see something of a cooler mid to long term maintained by tomorrow's runs as seems we get one promising set followed by a milder set immediately after.

One other thing I've noticed is the ECM 10 hPa zonal wind charts are now showing a dip again after the incoming stronger burst. 

 

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It was a channel low that gave us an interesting will it (snow) or won’t it (snow) week long discussion here. In the end it clipped a few southern coastal towns briefly.  The charts at the time looked quite similar.

Yes, and that shift southwards of the LP and associated frontal trough was down to the fact that the LP was initially expected to engage with the southern arm of the jet stream, which was expected to drive a more northerly track.  In the event it didn’t - but it still produced a fair bit of snow across northern France and eastwards.

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Inconsistency of evolution between a cold, blocked, more expected post SSW patterns and the continued zonal flow with added amplification of the jet - run to run - seems to be  the one constant. Another disappointing Peter-to-party pub run. However, all eyes on the morning. 24 hours ago - 2 disappointing model runs for coldies, and then 2 crackers: will this pattern repeat again? All bets are off. 

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Consistency of inconsistency to the easterly....
 

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Still just noise. Seems 06z are poor where as 12z are always better...

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WX summary showing temp distribution much as it has been forecast previously; still freezing NE of a line from S Sweden to S Urals with all of Europe (including the freezing area) above norm. In week 2, a little intensification of the cold within this area and ultra-cold air putting in a limited appearance in the far NE.

GFS Op - LP close to N Scotland today with shallow trough crossing Britain, followed by a week (to Wed 7th with HP over or close to SW Britain and breezy W-lies. LP then develops on the Atlantic 955 mb Rockall Sat 10th moving steadily SE-wards to Cumbria 960mb Mon 12th bringing some rather cold air with it (but not the dramatic SE-ly snowstorm which popped up in yesterday's 12z - GFS did a similar cancellation a couple of weeks back). This LP fades out over Sweden Wed 14th but revives with weak N-lies for Britain a couple of days later.

ECM - like GFS at first, though wind more NW-ly. From Wed 7th, the LP develops less deeply and moves towards Biscay 975mb Sat 10th but still manages to drag cold air towards Britain.

GEFS - in the S, mild until Wed 7th when the mean declines quite quickly to norm (a small cluster of cold runs around the 10th). Rain heavier than shown yesterday and mostly in the week following the 7th. Variation in the N is that the mild spell is interrupted by brief colder spells (tomorrow and 4th Feb) and the rain starts Mon 5th. 

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WX summary showing temp distribution much as it has been forecast previously; still freezing NE of a line from S Sweden to S Urals with all of Europe (including the freezing area) above norm. In week 2, a little intensification of the cold within this area and ultra-cold air putting in a limited appearance in the far NE.

GFS Op - LP close to N Scotland today with shallow trough crossing Britain, followed by a week (to Wed 7th with HP over or close to SW Britain and breezy W-lies. LP then develops on the Atlantic 955 mb Rockall Sat 10th moving steadily SE-wards to Cumbria 960mb Mon 12th bringing some rather cold air with it (but not the dramatic SE-ly snowstorm which popped up in yesterday's 12z - GFS did a similar cancellation a couple of weeks back). This LP fades out over Sweden Wed 14th but revives with weak N-lies for Britain a couple of days later.

ECM - like GFS at first, though wind more NW-ly. From Wed 7th, the LP develops less deeply and moves towards Biscay 975mb Sat 10th but still manages to drag cold air towards Britain.

GEFS - in the S, mild until Wed 7th when the mean declines quite quickly to norm (a small cluster of cold runs around the 10th). Rain heavier than shown yesterday and mostly in the week following the 7th. Variation in the N is that the mild spell is interrupted by brief colder spells (tomorrow and 4th Feb) and the rain starts Mon 5th. 

Efficient and well described summary - but crud for snow lovers south of Hadrians wall, -  the new M4? 😂

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That's a pretty decent cold signal from the ECM ensembles this morning from about the 11th. Can it hold?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

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GFS op quite a snowy run for a few especially the more NE parts. How much pressure the high can exert on and sink the low will vary a lot over next couple of days. Could be some cracking runs mixed with very wet runs

Updated 10 day metoffice

Interesting,  low confidence near term,but high for mid feb cold.

https://youtu.be/Q2t2AFfmaQE?si=Y23Ae20bPOJ2ftqN 

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Hope we are not setting up for another March 2013....

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Have to say getting a bit excited by the output at the moment

Hope we are not setting up for another March 2013....

Think it's a bit early to be contemplating prospects for March at this stage; we'll only be starting February tomorrow.

Let's see how February pans out, but what I will add here is the model output does look a little more interesting for those seeking late winter cold than it did not so long ago. 🙂

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At the end of the MetO 'Deep Dive' , about 18 minutes in, presenter Alex Burkill is fairly certain about cooler weather from Feb 12th, and colder still from Feb 19th. The charts he was using suggested NE-lies though he didn't specify a source for the cold.

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Hope we are not setting up for another March 2013....

I hope we are!

😀

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This Saturday may well be the warmest day of February 😉

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GEFS beginning to get that cold look about them