Noted. Will make sure I drive the point home in my next analysis. Thanks for your feedback. 

Analysis? 

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ECM Is on the right track 10 days away.

Seems to tie in with the UK Met and Met Eireann long ranges posted on here about a week ago 

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Analysis? 

Mild and springlike in the reliable. A possibility of something more wintry into mid-Feb on the far reaches of fantasy island. Not worth worrying about at this range, your honour. 

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Mild and springlike in the reliable. A possibility of something more wintry into mid-Feb on the far reaches of fantasy island. Not worth worrying about at this range, your honour. 

Now that is actually an analysis and I would tend to agree.

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If ECM are right at 240hrs South Wales will be buried in snow

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Noted. Will make sure I drive the point home in my next analysis. Thanks for your feedback. 

You are welcome.

Maybe don’t mention Bartlett highs in your analysis, since there hasn’t been a Bartlett-type pattern at all so far this winter.

🙂

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If ECM are right at 240hrs South Wales will be buried in snow

I thought it looked a bit marginal?  I guess the intensity of the precipitation would tip the balance but wouldn’t the ground be soaked by then?

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I thought it looked a bit marginal?  I guess the intensity of the precipitation would tip the balance but wouldn’t the ground be soaked by then?

very pronounced temperature gradient in that area  ....be interesting how this develops...

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Analysis? 

🤣

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You are welcome.

Maybe don’t mention Bartlett highs in your analysis, since there hasn’t been a Bartlett-type pattern at all so far this winter.

🙂

yep a term thrown around for any for sort of high over Europe!

You are welcome.

Maybe don’t mention Bartlett highs in your analysis, since there hasn’t been a Bartlett-type pattern at all so far this winter.

🙂

Indeed there has not, but I said many might wish for one. 

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very pronounced temperature gradient in that area  ....be interesting how this develops...

Agreed.  A 10c temperature difference across about 50-60 miles is pretty unusual and the proverbial forecaster’s nightmare - if it actually verified like that.

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If ECM are right at 240hrs South Wales will be buried in snow

​​​​​​Would be rain for the extreme southern margins of the principality as I see it, and dare I mention it? ........where the vast majority of the population live!

​​​​​​Would be rain for the extreme southern margins of the principality as I see it, and dare I mention it? ........where the vast majority of the population live!

A fair point!! 😁

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​​​​​​Would be rain for the extreme southern margins of the principality as I see it, and dare I mention it? ........where the vast majority of the population live!

Wrexham these days is a sprawling metropolis!

ECM evolution very different to GFS

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Quite a wintry update from met office,medium and long term. Not sure what charts they are looking at?

Stopped clock and all that ...... 😀

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ECM has something of interest towards the end of it’s run but it’s so far away in forecasting terms it’s barely worth the pixels it’s written on. Even then it’s a marginal fest for the vast majority of the UK population, nothing to inspire.

Might be worth checking back in a week’s time to see whether the signal remains.

The story of this winter has been one of serial disappointment for 70+% of the UK population, with many now rolling out the red carpet for a Uncle Barty, in the hope he arrives at the front door with a bunch of daffs and ushers in an early spring. 

Yes, London rarely even gets listed on list of cities on the BBC outlook graphic these days, presumably because there isn't match to comment on!

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I thought it looked a bit marginal?  I guess the intensity of the precipitation would tip the balance but wouldn’t the ground be soaked by then?

I never see anything at T240 as anything but marginal, unless of course there is unanimous agreement across all of the ensembles 😀

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yep a term thrown around for any for sort of high over Europe!

And ultimately who cares really? A high across Europe, or west of Europe, or the east, feeding in mild west or south westerly winds. The semantics are utterly boring on here every winter by the my ***** doesn’t stink brigade

I suppose the least risky way of presenting it is to just reference the pattern. Euro high, Kettley High, Bartlett, just reference the weather pattern it’ll produce and you can’t be castigated 

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GFS 18z pub run is the nearly model, but it wouldn’t need a massive shift in shape to deliver the desired goods to Blighty. P2 is this evenings peachy dream boat. Worth a peak for its easterly perfection.  

On another note, I went fishing today. First time Ive ventured out in January, ever. I’m not a foul weather fisherman - and in my experience, fish like settled weather too. At 11 degrees C, and a light southerly breeze, it felt more like April than Jan, and it was a bonanza. Fish were begging to be caught - with two monsters. I remember reading a fishing mag’ as a child with hardy souls I barely envied - fishing with ice forming in their rod eyes, in finger numbing cold. It was positively balmy on the bank today. A weird light to-boot, with all that Saharan sand in the sky.

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