The temperatures in the south are spring-like, but the radar shows sleet in southern Ireland at 2 degrees C. Quite some contrasts. Overall though, the mild conditions continue to dominate. I was looking at the temperature anomalies for the week across the N hemisphere - the gif sequence speaks for itself. https://images.meteociel.fr/im/11/24371/animndc2.gif 
 

That's a fascinating sequence - some off the scale positive anomalies over Northern Canada at times. I can also vouch the chill here this morning - not too far from a snow event and no doubt the mountains here must have deep snow cover this morning. 

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Going to try something new in terms of how I analyse the medium term. The upper troposphere is more accurately predicted by models; and simplying the broad situation in this way allows a better qualitative comparison between models and within them.

So upper trop analysis. Orange lines are ridges.

https://pasteboard.co/DQ6BZrtUKQza.png 

By the 4th February there is strong agreement in the pattern. The atlantic sector is dominated by LP centred around iceland/greenland with HP over the high arctic with some ridging towards a Canadian HP. By the 6th the LP has migrated towards Scandi which is good for us for cold weather however there is not much good ridging towards that high arctic high which would be ideal. By the 7th unfortunately we have a resurgence of the trop PV near greenland and still no communication between lower latitudes and that arctic HP. Ideally we need the PV over scandi to be stronger and the one over greenland weaker.

 

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Going to try something new in terms of how I analyse the medium term. The upper troposphere is more accurately predicted by models; and simplying the broad situation in this way allows a better qualitative comparison between models and within them.

So upper trop analysis. Orange lines are ridges.

https://pasteboard.co/DQ6BZrtUKQza.png 

By the 4th February there is strong agreement in the pattern. The atlantic sector is dominated by LP centred around iceland/greenland with HP over the high arctic with some ridging towards a Canadian HP. By the 6th the LP has migrated towards Scandi which is good for us for cold weather however there is not much good ridging towards that high arctic high which would be ideal. By the 7th unfortunately we have a resurgence of the trop PV near greenland and still no communication between lower latitudes and that arctic HP. Ideally we need the PV over scandi to be stronger and the one over greenland weaker.

 

Thanks Q. That would tie in with the general theme of a brief N/NW early next week followed by a return of the westerly flow.
The Am theme could strengthen which would deliver in the North especially, but it doesn't look too long-lived as it stands.

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Thanks Q. That would tie in with the general theme of a brief N/NW early next week followed by a return of the westerly flow.
The Am theme could strengthen which would deliver in the North especially, but it doesn't look too long-lived as it stands.

The only good news is that, I don't think this pattern would have to change much to be really quite good. If the scandi lobe is stronger and we get better communication between the arctic HP and low latitude ridging then the situation could be quite different.
 

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IMANAF22                4.6c                Nicks'-1BATH 75          4.7c
Metcheck                  4.72c              Anomaly                      0.57c
Netweather               4.94c              Anomaly                      0.75c
Peasedown St john   4.66c              Anomaly                      -0.73c.
 

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Not much change in the models, a paltry puff of a northerly possibly for the north. Core of winter being eroded by the slug.

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Not much change in the models, a paltry puff of a northerly possibly for the north. Core of winter being eroded by the slug.

This could be the first winter I have ever lived through where I haven't seen a single flake of snow. I'm actually hoping this turns out to be the case. 

It's getting to that point in winter now where the thrill of it is wearing off. Evenings are getting longer and sun notably higher, yet still no real comfortable warmth to be had. Nor will there be until April at least. 

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The only good news is that, I don't think this pattern would have to change much to be really quite good. If the scandi lobe is stronger and we get better communication between the arctic HP and low latitude ridging then the situation could be quite different.
 

without heights dropping to the south it’s futile! There was definite potential but day by day it’s eroding! 

This could be the first winter I have ever lived through where I haven't seen a single flake of snow. I'm actually hoping this turns out to be the case. 

It's getting to that point in winter now where the thrill of it is wearing off. Evenings are getting longer and sun notably higher, yet still no real comfortable warmth to be had. Nor will there be until April at least. 

In the golden era of the 60s to the 80s I used to expect snow in the winter and was unpleasantly surprised if there was none.  Now  I expect no snow and will pleasantly surprised if some arrives.  That way is very gentle on my mental health. 😊.   However this does not stop the search,  and to that end we keep a weak cold signal for around the 5th and a somewhat stronger one into the middle the month from the 11th.  The ensemble options are showing that low pressure may not be too far away if this were materialise. Wet or slushy chill for the South maybe, but then again you never know....

Quite a wintry update from met office,medium and long term. Not sure what charts they are looking at?

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Quite a wintry update from met office,medium and long term. Not sure what charts they are looking at?

The same ones as everyone else. The ones that show that there is a chance of wintry conditions in a range of other options, therefore the inclusion of low confidence in the forecast. A fair reflection of the current model output.

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Quite a wintry update from met office,medium and long term. Not sure what charts they are looking at?

think the South is obviously not looking wintry and will probably be wet with more southerly tracking lows. Could be some decent falls elsewhere though

First time I've seen the Arctic high looking interested at 288hrs. Be gone by the next run no doubt. 

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Have to say the op run has thrown up quite a shift see if there is any support

Quite a wintry update from met office,medium and long term. Not sure what charts they are looking at?

Maybe they had advanced sight of the GFS 12z run. 😁

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The second week of February will produce weather unsuitable for golf. That will be one of wind, fog, snow or rain! My cousin is coming down from York  to play golf. Last February we played in polo shirts as it was high teens.

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ECM Is on the right track 10 days away.

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ECM Is on the right track 10 days away.

ECM has something of interest towards the end of it’s run but it’s so far away in forecasting terms it’s barely worth the pixels it’s written on. Even then it’s a marginal fest for the vast majority of the UK population, nothing to inspire.

Might be worth checking back in a week’s time to see whether the signal remains.

The story of this winter has been one of serial disappointment for 70+% of the UK population, with many now rolling out the red carpet for a Uncle Barty, in the hope he arrives at the front door with a bunch of daffs and ushers in an early spring. 

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ECM has something of interest towards the end of it’s run but it’s so far away in forecasting terms it’s barely worth the pixels it’s written on. Even then it’s a marginal fest for the vast majority of the UK population, nothing to inspire.

Might be worth checking back in a week’s time to see whether the signal remains.

The story of this winter has been one of serial disappointment for 70+% of the UK population, with many now rolling out the red carpet for a Uncle Barty, in the hope he arrives at the front door with a bunch of daffs and ushers in an early spring. 

🤣🤣🤣🤣

I knew there’d be the usual reference to population distribution; you managed two references….

Must try harder… 😉

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🤣🤣🤣🤣

I knew there’d be the usual reference to population distribution; you managed two references….

Must try harder… 😉

Noted. Will make sure I drive the point home in my next analysis. Thanks for your feedback. 

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