Brian Gaze
12 January 2024 06:35:01
Onwards....
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
12 January 2024 06:40:14
Dammit, wrote a really long post only to get access denied as the old thread closed!

I can't be arsed to write it all out again, but suffice to say I like the ECM and we're in for a cold spell, with a decent chance of snow down here.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
12 January 2024 06:40:15
The consensus this morning is still for a cold and for some potentially snow week ahead. There is some notably cold air moving in from the north from Sunday, a timescale unchanged for over a week.

The t850hPa GEFS mean here is now below -12°C on Monday and the ECM 00z op run shows a band of snow hitting the far south on Wednesday. Interesting times.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 January 2024 07:08:46
Originally Posted by: Retron 

Dammit, wrote a really long post only to get access denied as the old thread closed!

I can't be arsed to write it all out again, but suffice to say I like the ECM and we're in for a cold spell, with a decent chance of snow down here.

 



Looks a bit rubbish for most though. It's going to be a case of hoping something turns up short notice snow wise. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
12 January 2024 07:14:23
Originally Posted by: Retron 

Dammit, wrote a really long post only to get access denied as the old thread closed!

I can't be arsed to write it all out again, but suffice to say I like the ECM and we're in for a cold spell, with a decent chance of snow down here.

 


EC 46 hints at blocking returning 
https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2024_01/Schermafbeelding2024-01-11212315.jpg.304a1ab0adc0b394ba4b699c803c0850.jpg 
 
Tim A
12 January 2024 07:17:04
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Looks a bit rubbish for most though. It's going to be a case of hoping something turns up short notice snow wise. 
 


Perhaps but you can never track a snow event from 7-8 days successfully.  Anything showing for next week would be almost meaningless at this stage. Lets hope within 72 hours something interesting pops up.  
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl


Rob K
12 January 2024 07:28:39
I was hopeful that we would have one of two scenarios next week:

a) heavy snow, but heralding a return to milder weather. 

b) snow missing us to the south but keeping us in the cold air. 

Unfortunately the models seem to have managed to land on option c), which has the snow missing is to the south but mild air still quickly sweeping in anyway, with not a flake of snow before the cold disappears!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
12 January 2024 07:36:30
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Looks a bit rubbish for most though. It's going to be a case of hoping something turns up short notice snow wise. 
 


Having had a nice bath, I'll put down a bit of what I wrote earlier (I spent a good 20 minutes writing that post, which was why I was miffed!)

Generally, it does look like we're in for something unusual in recent times, a notable northerly. All the conditions are there for some severe minima over Scotland: we have low 500hPa heights incoming, low 850s, the both together indicating a real Arctic airmass; there will be snow on the ground, light winds and a col overhead, so nothing much to prevent cold air pooling close to the surface. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see -15 or even -20 reached over the coming days. (Note that the rather excitable MetO GM has been showing much lower temperatures than have been recorded - it had -14C earlier this morning, when the coldest PWSs in the area, the Cairngorms, only had -8s).

The other notable thing is how far south that deep cold airmass will reach; yesterday's 18z GEFS was a high point, with a -10 mean down here. Unsurprisingly the 0z GEFS suite has backed off from that a bit, but it still hits -9 briefly. In tandem with that, we see low dewpoints modelled, another characteristic of an Arctic airmass. That should wick away water from the ground, enabling widespread (and literal) hard frost to develop. With the sun still weak, I've a feeling we're in for a magical few days, the sort where ponds remain frozen, frost lingers all day long. It also means if any snow appears it should avoid melting (as it did down here on Monday).

That brings me onto snow itself: we all know that given a deep cold airmass, convection is something to look out for - it doesn't take much to spark this. Others will know their areas better than I do, but there are bound to be lake-effect showers in areas exposed to coasts, as well as troughs or other features moving south - I would expect snow to pop up almost anywhere, but it'll be short notice - it always is! Just look at the snow we had down here on Monday, the modelling of it was unimpressive, even though it was likely to happen.

The midweek snow is now looking like mainly heading over France, perhaps clipping the south (as in the ECM, which is why I wrote I liked it). I'm not keen on the post 168 evolution, mind you! The MetO 168 is worth commenting on, as it's an incredibly rare sighting of cold WSW'lies... the legacy of the earlier cold lingering on for a bit. The MetO, incidentally, takes the snow hundreds of miles further south than the ECM, so we trade snow for deeper cold.

Towards the end of the week, yesterday's modelling was emphatic on a warmup, with T2Ms hitting 9C as a mean on the 21st down here. I expect that to be similar today, but it's also worth mentioning that both GEFS and EPS have a small number of members maintaining the cold throughout - and we can't really expect the charts to be terribly accurate 9 days out, after all. The models are excellent at handling zonal jets, but as can be seen at the moment they're having "fun" pinning down that split we're seeing! If it does warm up, though, at least there will have been a good 5 days or so of deep cold over the UK.

Obviously Scotland is the place to be this week - and I look forward to seeing reports in due course, including ones from our Scottish members on here!
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
12 January 2024 07:48:20
Originally Posted by: Retron 

Having had a nice bath, I'll put down a bit of what I wrote earlier (I spent a good 20 minutes writing that post, which was why I was miffed!)

Generally, it does look like we're in for something unusual in recent times, a notable northerly. All the conditions are there for some severe minima over Scotland: we have low 500hPa heights incoming, low 850s, the both together indicating a real Arctic airmass; there will be snow on the ground, light winds and a col overhead, so nothing much to prevent cold air pooling close to the surface. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see -15 or even -20 reached over the coming days. (Note that the rather excitable MetO GM has been showing much lower temperatures than have been recorded - it had -14C earlier this morning, when the coldest PWSs in the area, the Cairngorms, only had -8s).

The other notable thing is how far south that deep cold airmass will reach; yesterday's 18z GEFS was a high point, with a -10 mean down here. Unsurprisingly the 0z GEFS suite has backed off from that a bit, but it still hits -9 briefly. In tandem with that, we see low dewpoints modelled, another characteristic of an Arctic airmass. That should wick away water from the ground, enabling widespread (and literal) hard frost to develop. With the sun still weak, I've a feeling we're in for a magical few days, the sort where ponds remain frozen, frost lingers all day long. It also means if any snow appears it should avoid melting (as it did down here on Monday).

That brings me onto snow itself: we all know that given a deep cold airmass, convection is something to look out for - it doesn't take much to spark this. Others will know their areas better than I do, but there are bound to be lake-effect showers in areas exposed to coasts, as well as troughs or other features moving south - I would expect snow to pop up almost anywhere, but it'll be short notice - it always is! Just look at the snow we had down here on Monday, the modelling of it was unimpressive, even though it was likely to happen.

The midweek snow is now looking like mainly heading over France, perhaps clipping the south (as in the ECM, which is why I wrote I liked it). I'm not keen on the post 168 evolution, mind you! The MetO 168 is worth commenting on, as it's an incredibly rare sighting of cold WSW'lies... the legacy of the earlier cold lingering on for a bit. The MetO, incidentally, takes the snow hundreds of miles further south than the ECM, so we trade snow for deeper cold.

Towards the end of the week, yesterday's modelling was emphatic on a warmup, with T2Ms hitting 9C as a mean on the 21st down here. I expect that to be similar today, but it's also worth mentioning that both GEFS and EPS have a small number of members maintaining the cold throughout - and we can't really expect the charts to be terribly accurate 9 days out, after all. The models are excellent at handling zonal jets, but as can be seen at the moment they're having "fun" pinning down that split we're seeing! If it does warm up, though, at least there will have been a good 5 days or so of deep cold over the UK.

Obviously Scotland is the place to be this week - and I look forward to seeing reports in due course, including ones from our Scottish members on here!



Thanks Darren. That’s a comprehensive analysis and great reflection on the current output. Depending on specifics like cloud and snow cover there coukd be some notably low temperatures this week. I’m also wondering if a rogue op run may show -15°C t850s reaching this far south on Monday, given that the 18z GEFS mean dipped to -13.2°C here.
Crepuscular Ray
12 January 2024 07:49:08
We'll do our best Retron 😁
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Hippydave
12 January 2024 08:01:11
Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The consensus this morning is still for a cold and for some potentially snow week ahead. There is some notably cold air moving in from the north from Sunday, a timescale unchanged for over a week.

The t850hPa GEFS mean here is now below -12°C on Monday and the ECM 00z op run shows a band of snow hitting the far south on Wednesday. Interesting times.



The ECM accumulated precip charts at least suggest a showery Northerly. 
UserPostedImage

Not an unusual distribution in a North backing North West airflow but shows it could be rather snowy in places. I assume the precip totals along the southern coastal strip reflect the encroaching LP just grazes the coast on this operational. Not convinced by that given other output but if it doesn't happen IMBY will be sunny, crisp days with overnight frosts and what's not to like about that😁

As you've mentioned the depth of the cold air is quite notable particularly by recent Northerly standards - we even get -10/-11 down here according to the UKV, which really is unusual from that direction. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Retron
12 January 2024 08:02:40
The 0z EPS are now available (grab 'em here , change your town name as appropriate).

FWIW, down here at least, the median for Sunday 21st has fallen - it's now only 6C, down a couple of degrees on yesterday's output. It still gets warmer thereafter, but shows a bit of a wobble at least. Again, this is something we've seen before: models overestimating the arrival of milder air, when come the time things are delayed a bit.

The other thing which is unusual is that the figures above relate to the 15-day EPS. If you go to the 10-day EPS, the median for the 21st is just 4C! I'm not sure what's going on there, as you'd expect them to be the same.

If you head further north, it's much the same in the Midlands. But by the time you get to Glasgow, the ensembles paint a really cold picture - an ice day, and with much more scatter towards the end of the run, indicating less certainty in things warming up. Head another hundred miles north, to Inverness, and a string of ice days are modelled.

All in all, a very interesting week to come - I look forward to watching it unfold!
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
12 January 2024 08:09:54
Incidentally, while I'm looking at charts for Inverness (a lovely city btw, I'd recommend a visit), this really stands out from the EPS:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202401120000&epsgram=classical_plume&lat=57.4667&lon=-4.23333&station_name=Inverness 

That's a "plumes" chart, which shows 850s. Note how they trundle along at -10C or below for 5 and a half days - that's an impressively long period of deep cold air! Note also the 500hPa chart (not to be confused with thickness); at the peak of the cold it's around 510dam, which again is indicative of exceptionally cold air aloft... all ingredients for a memorable spell up there.

Down here it's less intense, of course, but even then in Reading, for example, there's a respectable 5 and a half days below -5, with 520dam heights at the peak.
Leysdown, north Kent
Joe Bloggs
12 January 2024 08:13:46
The output is really good this morning, let’s be honest.

Very cold for a full week, and we’re already seeing signs of it maybe turning blockier again into FI (check the 00z GFS op for an example of this).

There is near cross model agreement now for the winds to back NW’ly, or even WNW’ly around the middle of next week - I can’t emphasise enough that this makes such a difference to the shower distribution. Think NW England, perhaps parts of Yorks and North Midlands. We won’t know till much nearer the time - but wishbone northerly this ain’t. 

The MetO run looks fairly unstable to me this morning, always good to have that on board. A weak NW’ly flow and little lows moving down the North Sea too - could they maybe bring snow to eastern parts? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU00_114_1.png 
one to watch! 

Scotland (even the central belt) looks to get a lot of snow. Check out the MOGREPS ensembles, very strong agreement of this: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/mogreps//snow_depth_168_ps.png 

note also a few MOGREPS members giving a significant snow event to the south / Midlands. 


So much to keep an eye on next week. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Chunky Pea
12 January 2024 08:14:36
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Looks a bit rubbish for most though. It's going to be a case of hoping something turns up short notice snow wise. 
 



That's the thing about snowy troughs. The often develop at short notice. 

Looks very dry for me (I really couldn't care less about seeing snow) and it could end being my 2nd dry week in a row. Only prep Ive recorded this last week is from fog and melted frost. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gusty
12 January 2024 08:21:45
Great output this morning. Nowhere is immune from snowfall next week in what will be our first notable arctic UK wide incursion in January for many years.

It will be the little things like frozen ponds, icicles in trees next to wet roads, very cold minima, sparkling sunshine and such like that with the very low sun that will set this apart from a usual grey week in January.

Enjoy. If snow happens to fall then that will be the cherry on the cake.

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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Ally Pally Snowman
12 January 2024 08:37:15
Chunky Pea wrote:

That's the thing about snowy troughs. The often develop at short notice. 

Looks very dry for me (I really couldn't care less about seeing snow) and it could end being my 2nd dry week in a row. Only prep Ive recorded this last week is from fog and melted frost. 



This is what I'm hoping for . A week of -5c or below 850s is rare here would be a shame to waste it.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
12 January 2024 08:45:14
This screengrab of the local forecast from xc, i.e. the GFS run, sums up the current output in a nutshell for me. Westerlies backing SW'ly, sun and clouds, but... 1C as a high and with a -10C dewpoint!

Remarkable stuff. I genuinely can't remember the last time I saw those figures with a flow, even briefly, from the SW, and I certainly can't remember anything like that without snow on the ground.

...and it only gets better further north, remember! 😀
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/coldsw.jpg 
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Hippydave
12 January 2024 08:47:00
Looking at the ECM ens and there's actually a reasonable amount of support for the mid week LP to get close enough for precip IMBY.

https://weather.us/forecast/2639022-royal-tunbridge-wells/ensemble/euro/snow-precipitation-24h 

Obviously I'll take the purple coloured doodad!

Should say there's a few members still that pile that low further north still and I get cold rain and presumably plenty that keep it further south. Looking across the ens sets I'd say maybe a 30-40% chance at the moment of it snowing here mid week, although obviously precip charts for 6 days away are at best a rough guess and probably won't have a good idea of things until Sunday evening or possibly Monday.  

Other than just where the LP sits the ECM ens are pretty consistent with earlier sets for here I think - a cold working week, probably warming up Saturday/Sunday although cold may hang on for a day or two beyond that. Longer term it's resolutely mild at 850 level although the accompanying pressure doesn't look that low after the breakdown blip, so HP reasonably likely to be near enough to the South/South West to affect me at times. GEFS are similar, suggesting reasonably strong confidence in the broadscale pattern. 

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
fullybhoy
12 January 2024 08:50:11
Originally Posted by: Retron 


Obviously Scotland is the place to be this week - and I look forward to seeing reports in due course, including ones from our Scottish members on here!



Hopefully i’ll be posting lots in the snow reports thread in the next week 👍🏻
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
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