And ultimately who cares really? A high across Europe, or west of Europe, or the east, feeding in mild west or south westerly winds. The semantics are utterly boring on here every winter by the my ***** doesn’t stink brigade

I suppose the least risky way of presenting it is to just reference the pattern. Euro high, Kettley High, Bartlett, just reference the weather pattern it’ll produce and you can’t be castigated 

🤣🤣 has to be said it’s become almost impossible to have rational conversation in here this winter. 
Meanwhile, it’s looking increasingly tricky to see how any meaningful Feb cold spell might manifest. Potentially chillier and/ or stormy from mid month. Met office refusing to pick a particular favoured outcome in the long ranger. 

Who invited Pete to the party: GFS and ECM have little of cheer for coldies: The number of pert’s showing a cold evolution has fallen to 6 too, and neither the Op or controls are among them. As if they say - what SSW! Start the mower, and bring on the spring bulbs. My snowdrops are already in full bloom, catkins are open and yellow. This is January not March.
Joe ******i did an analysis of strong El Niño years and they rarely if ever correlated to negative NAO spells: Whereas La Nada, or weak El Nino’s did. Perhaps the heat added by this strong ElNino has top-trumped the 3rd SSW this year. 

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Who invited Pete to the party: GFS and ECM have little of cheer for coldies: The number of pert’s showing a cold evolution has fallen to 6 too, and neither the Op or controls are among them. As if they say - what SSW! Start the mower, and bring on the spring bulbs. My snowdrops are already in full bloom, catkins are open and yellow. This is January not March.

Very true. Seems as though SSW has again been a misleading factor in the hunt for coldies. The backloaded winter Met office went for is crumbling away. Pete’s invite can be torn up and left in the bin please where everyone would prefer it. 

WX charts show little change with cold weather remaining to the NE, if anything the freezing area shrinks a little compared to yesterdays' forecast; by week 2 this is N of a line from S Sweden to S Urals, and excludes Scotland. Rain for western fringes , Norway and Scotland week 1, extending to Spain week 2, less penetrating into the continent than yesterday.

GFS Op - a general W-ly theme with variations. The default of LP near Iceland and Hp over the continent is perturbed by - Wed 31st, LP nearer Scotland with severe gales for the N:: Mon 5th, LP closer to Scandinavia so cooler NW-lies; Sat 10th, LP from Atlantic 960mb arrives in Cornwall traversing England NE-wards and dragging in cooler air in its wake; Thu 15th, LP is more to S of Iceland so winds are back to SW.

ECM - keeps pressure higher close to Britain, so gales on 31st restricted to NW (MetO agrees), the NW-lies on Mon affect the other side of the N Sea and it looks as if the LP Sat 10th will be downgraded to a trough off the W of Ireland.

GEFS  - In the S, becoming mild and staying that way to about Wed 7th when ens agreement breaks up and mean declines to norm, with rain in most runs after that date. A lot more variation in temps in Scotland and to a lesser extent in N England with pronounced swings from mild to cool until the 7th after which a decline to norm as in the S, rain event ca Thu 1st and then more general rain after the 5th.

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Very true. Seems as though SSW has again been a misleading factor in the hunt for coldies. The backloaded winter Met office went for is crumbling away. Pete’s invite can be torn up and left in the bin please where everyone would prefer it. 

The models always seem to underestimate the power of the jet these days. Any blocking picked up disappears closer to reality. Just hope we can avoid anymore nasty storms in Feb once our current euro slug moves east
 

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Easterly setting up on GFS op run! What I noticed though is the M4 corridor runs all the way in Europe! 

Away from the far SE a snowy run for southern parts - be good to see that trend

Easterly setting up on GFS op run! What I noticed though is the M4 corridor runs all the way in Europe! 

Away from the far SE a snowy run for southern parts - be good to see that trend

Yes decent end to the GFS 6z. Straw clutching atm. But agree with others who have said it wouldn't take to much change in the output for it to look much better. The period between 10th February and 20th is up for grabs.

 

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Easterly setting up on GFS op run! What I noticed though is the M4 corridor runs all the way in Europe! 

Away from the far SE a snowy run for southern parts - be good to see that trend

Yes - the Op is very similar to
pert 4 of yesterdays pub run, which I’d picked out (just for fun), and a snowy easterly too boot as modelled. It’s all very unresolved, but it’s great to have hope for something to evolve and trend that’s more memorable for us cold and snowy weather fans! 

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There are signs of the semi permanent euro high pressure dwindling a little which ‘could’ allow some decent wintry weather. 

An eyebrow raiser from the GFS 12z. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=249&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

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Belting run that

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Pete may have turned up, but it looks like he's thrown
some cats amongst the pigeons.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=297&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

will it / won’t it continue to sink?!

Ridiculous low pressure at the end of the op run over the SE - would be funny to see that happen but I reckon the chance is zero! Entertaining op run

Despite the dream models  I anticipate only a return to some nasty unsettled conditions for the UK. Wouldn't be surprised if the south have some traumatic model viewing in the next few days before reality returns

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Well I'm more than happy with the 12Z GFS for my area.......should it verify of course ❄️❄️

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Well I'm more than happy with the 12Z GFS for my area.......should it verify of course ❄️❄️

I’d be more interested if it had more cross-model or ensemble support. The fact that the wintry scenario has been shown on two consecutive runs does however mean it should not be discounted. The ECM runs over the next couple of days will be informative.

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ECM sort of following GFS op run

ECM sort of following GFS op run

Yep the chase is officially back on.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20240209-1200z.html#tab-dates-date 

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Didn’t we see this chart al,ost exactly the same two and a half weeks ago? 🤣

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx 

(ECM OP go to +240 hours)

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