BJBlake
31 January 2024 23:53:46
Pub run decent - here’s the Op Gif sequence for week 2 GFS: https://images.meteociel.fr/im/75/11319/animynx4.gif 

But just for fun - check out pert 11, its a dream boat...😂
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
CField
01 February 2024 06:25:53
Signs possibly the Siberian High will come out of shy mode and squeeze through to be a player...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 February 2024 06:58:48
Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

Pub run decent - here’s the Op Gif sequence for week 2 GFS: https://images.meteociel.fr/im/75/11319/animynx4.gif 

But just for fun - check out pert 11, its a dream boat...😂



Don't get too excited - the models change overnight and no. 11 now has a couple of spectacular days but doesn't last😑
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
01 February 2024 07:06:50
There’s been quite a notable shift in the GEFS ensembles here overnight and less “chaos” in the medium term:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&ext=1&run=0&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0&type=0  
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2024 07:35:51
Yep the mid February cold spell is shuffling closer this morning.  No spectacularly cold 850s but probably cold enough for most . 11th looks the start date here.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gem&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 February 2024 07:50:38
WX temp chart for week 1 continues yesterday's theme with mild weather across central Europe and the freezing line running from S Sweden to S Urals. In week 2, a bit of a shift from the NE with cooler though not freezing weather spreading down from the Baltic to the Alps; England also cooler and Scotland joining the freezing area. Pptn in week 1 from N Britain across to the Baltic; in week 2 generally over Europe with the heaviest lying from France to the Adriatic.

GFS Op - the current zonal W-lies continue for a few days but pressure begins to drop both E & W of Britain Tue 6th and by Fri 9th LP is 975mb England with something of a N-ly feed. The centre shifts N to Shetland 975mb Sun 11th while maintaining a trough over the rest of Britain, then filling but still present as a weak feature to Wed 14th before HP takes over, 1030mb neatly covering Britain Sat 17th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the cold LP reaches its deepest Sat 10th 965mb southern N Sea and by Sun has moved to Sweden.

GEFS - S England, still mild to Sun 10th followed by a cold spell to Tue 13th all with moderately good ens agreement, then mean back to norm though op & control still flirting with colder outcomes. Heavy rain Fri 7th to Sun 10th, damp thereafter. In Scotland, mild-cool-mild before the general cooler spell sets in earlier than in the S, on Fri 7th, but then back to norm by 13th as above. Rain, or marginal snow at low level, in two tranches, Thu 6th and Fri 9th, then damp.  N England closer to S England but with elements from Scotland.


I'm away for the weekend but expect to keep these reviews going, relying on free wifi and fitting into the timetabled activities of where I'm staying. I could just take more interest in N England?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
BJBlake
01 February 2024 07:59:01
That’s the first morning for a long while (since the last cold snap) that the GFS model has upgraded for modelling a cold weather spell for the morning’s 0z from last night’s pub run’s 18z output. Too early for a trend? Much better consistency from the panel of perts - (as highlighted by Doc-mog above. Just need something similar to verify down the line away from FI land now...
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
ballamar
01 February 2024 08:15:56
Looks like the first attempt to sink the lows will be a starter and might not be cold enough for most but the real signal is from mid Feb onwards. Proper blocking to the NW with NE winds! But all of that is well in the future
Retron
01 February 2024 08:21:55
Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Looks like the first attempt to sink the lows will be a starter and might not be cold enough for most but the real signal is from mid Feb onwards.


It's interesting to see that the ECM extended ensembles have been firming up on a cold spell centred around the 26th Feb - several degrees below average, which is very unusual to see at that range. This'll be part of why the Met Office has been so bullish on a cold spell in mid-Feb onwards, I'd imagine.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202401310000&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London 

(London chart, you can choose your own town by typing it in)
Leysdown, north Kent
01 February 2024 08:34:54
Originally Posted by: Retron 

It's interesting to see that the ECM extended ensembles have been firming up on a cold spell centred around the 26th Feb - several degrees below average, which is very unusual to see at that range. This'll be part of why the Met Office has been so bullish on a cold spell in mid-Feb onwards, I'd imagine.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202401310000&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London 

(London chart, you can choose your own town by typing it in)



Too little too late for southern contingent, unless it starts to be potent....

 
Berkshire
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2024 08:52:35
UncleAlbert
01 February 2024 10:02:16
GEFS now vote about 50% for a cold snap around  the weekend after next.  An uptick after about 3 days though which is a change from the pub run.  Maybe a taster for later on?   Panels towards the very end show a lot of potential for the onset of HLB.  Notable when taken in the context of the MO outlook.  Not really reflected in the 850s at this stage.  Around half of the ECM ens also go cold Sunday week (ish) and not so keen on picking up the average later on either.  So all in all, plenty of interest this morning if you are not wishing up the daffodils!
nsrobins
01 February 2024 11:19:35
The GFS OP is as useful as a headline from The Daily Express at the moment. That accepted, the EPS and EC46 do show a solid slide in 2m temps with Iberian heights finally draining in favour of a Scandy trough sinking SE.
We might have something developing (see end of latest MetO deep dive) but the OPs won't tell us much at the moment.
Expectation (from a cold perspective) on hold but from where we were this time last week that's a big improvement.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2024 11:36:21
Well the GFS 6z is a bag of crap. We'll have to make do with the Control. 😄

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=222&lid=C00&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
MStewart
01 February 2024 11:50:52
It’s starting to look more consistent for a change to colder weather towards the end of the 2nd week in February from looking at GEFS and ECM ensembles, with more members trending to below average consistently over the last few days.

how cold is yet to be determined, but the possibility of a notable wet spell during the transition could make things interesting.

It’ll keep me model watching for a few more weeks yet!
Mark
Twickenham
12m ASL
Downpour
01 February 2024 12:43:43
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Ecm ensembles continue to look promising from the 11th. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Further north from the 7th

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50048&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 



A popular guitar-beat combo have put together a tune on that Ally!

https://youtu.be/IHXK9glwFBg?si=DaB4bVdHdeSpIIKC 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
01 February 2024 12:45:44
Originally Posted by: MStewart 

It’s starting to look more consistent for a change to colder weather towards the end of the 2nd week in February from looking at GEFS and ECM ensembles, with more members trending to below average consistently over the last few days.

how cold is yet to be determined, but the possibility of a notable wet spell during the transition could make things interesting.

It’ll keep me model watching for a few more weeks yet!



Hmm. I remain sceptical. Looks on the wrong side of marginal for the vast majority of the UK population at this stage. Perhaps something to rattle the loins of our Scottish and hill-top brethren. 

In any case, it's FI. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2024 12:57:31
Originally Posted by: Downpour 

A popular guitar-beat combo have put together a tune on that Ally!

https://youtu.be/IHXK9glwFBg?si=DaB4bVdHdeSpIIKC 



😄

I'm actually quite optimistic about mid February.  It's not looking like a direct northerly which will help snow chances especially down here.




 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
01 February 2024 13:28:39
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

😄

I'm actually quite optimistic about mid February.  It's not looking like a direct northerly which will help snow chances especially down here.




 



Well if it hits you, it hits me. So here's hoping. The Dec 2022 fall in these parts remains legend. But was a very local affair with the vast majority of the UK population bone dry!
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2024 13:36:49
Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Well if it hits you, it hits me. So here's hoping. The Dec 2022 fall in these parts remains legend. But was a very local affair with the vast majority of the UK population bone dry!



This is looking much more like an unsettled spell. Think the issue here will be if its cold enough.  At least the interesting model watching is back. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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