WX temp chart for week 1 continues yesterday's theme with mild weather across central Europe and the freezing line running from S Sweden to S Urals. In week 2, a bit of a shift from the NE with cooler though not freezing weather spreading down from the Baltic to the Alps; England also cooler and Scotland joining the freezing area. Pptn in week 1 from N Britain across to the Baltic; in week 2 generally over Europe with the heaviest lying from France to the Adriatic.
GFS Op - the current zonal W-lies continue for a few days but pressure begins to drop both E & W of Britain Tue 6th and by Fri 9th LP is 975mb England with something of a N-ly feed. The centre shifts N to Shetland 975mb Sun 11th while maintaining a trough over the rest of Britain, then filling but still present as a weak feature to Wed 14th before HP takes over, 1030mb neatly covering Britain Sat 17th.
ECM - similar to GFS but the cold LP reaches its deepest Sat 10th 965mb southern N Sea and by Sun has moved to Sweden.
GEFS - S England, still mild to Sun 10th followed by a cold spell to Tue 13th all with moderately good ens agreement, then mean back to norm though op & control still flirting with colder outcomes. Heavy rain Fri 7th to Sun 10th, damp thereafter. In Scotland, mild-cool-mild before the general cooler spell sets in earlier than in the S, on Fri 7th, but then back to norm by 13th as above. Rain, or marginal snow at low level, in two tranches, Thu 6th and Fri 9th, then damp. N England closer to S England but with elements from Scotland.
I'm away for the weekend but expect to keep these reviews going, relying on free wifi and fitting into the timetabled activities of where I'm staying. I could just take more interest in N England?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl