If the latest GFS is to be believed, the rains are set to return to the UK over the weekend and there is little respite from that point onwards. Perhaps we are all set for a June monsoon after all?

Fairly warm but if cloud amounts are high I don't see any 'proper' heatwave. 

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If the latest GFS is to be believed, the rains are set to return to the UK over the weekend and there is little respite from that point onwards. Perhaps we are all set for a June monsoon after all?

Fairly warm but if cloud amounts are high I don't see any 'proper' heatwave. 

This is starting to become almost a repeat performance of 2020.  A cool start, dry and sunny and getting warmer, then June thunderstorms

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This is starting to become almost a repeat performance of 2020.  A cool start, dry and sunny and getting warmer, then June thunderstorms

Please not a repeat of that summer 😫

Rainier and cooler than average (for Midlands-north) is not what I want to see.


One thing that's consistent across most models is northern blocking. GFS's latest runs have the bocking more confined to the Greenland area, allowing low pressure from the SW to influence the UK, whereas ECM & GEM favour a continuation of lobes from that GH expanding far enough eastwards (SE'wards) to effect the UK weather with a continuation of the broadly easterly/north-easterly flow, for the northern two-thirds of the country at least.


 

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I do have a portable air-con, and it's very useful. The snag is they stop working once the ambient temperature reaches 35C or so - as their compressor overheats. They simply won't turn on. Proper air-con is going to be increasingly common, I think, and I will probably end up going down that route - it's cheaper than demolishing and rebuilding the house!

There's definitely signs of a change in the ensembles, going back to the models. The ECM ensembles show the weekend onwards having temperatures in the low to mid 20s down here; after a couple of aimless days over the weekend the NE'lies return, but much lighter in nature.

GEFS meanwhile has lost the NE'ly signal in the long term now, and after a spell of "could be any direction" after the weekend, shows SW'lies gaining dominance. Last night's 12z op run was a remarkably cold outlier and it's no surprise that the 18z was closer to the pack.

The one thing that shows in both models is a period of generally well above average 850s. Currently it's the strength of the NE'lies that's minimising those effects, but once the winds drop they'll have much more of an effect.

Provided you have an outside wall to the main room you want to cool down it is starightforward and worth it as it has been much cheaper to run than I expected. Only uses about 750W and cools the bedroom in less than half an hour. Plus it is only required now and again. If it gets oppressive elsewhere in a real heatwave we just go upstairs to the room just to cool down.

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I love it. Can’t understand why anyone would check into a hotel because it’s hot either. I wonder how many people felt they had to do that to get aircon. Maybe health related I could understand. 

But then to be fair, you have always struggled to see things from someone else's point of view. 😀

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Can't post the link, as I don't know how, but the newly released ECMWF seasonal forecast for July, August & September is strongly pointing towards return of drought conditions, with enhanced risk of high temperatures.
This looks very similar to last summer. Can lightning strike same place twice?
Possibly not so hot as there is no heat in the south of Europe, but things can change fast.

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The 12s paint a humid picture from Friday.  Plenty of thunderstorms but some decent warmth 25c to 28c quite widely. Will feel great after this low cloud cool fest we've had to put up with here.
 

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The 12s paint a humid picture from Friday.  Plenty of thunderstorms but some decent warmth 25c to 28c quite widely. Will feel great after this low cloud cool fest we've had to put up with here.
 

Thunderstorms Sunday please. 
I've still only played 1 game of cricket this season and this Saturday is my first opportunity to play since 13th May.
I will be mighty annoyed if the rain intervenes and I miss out yet again.

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The 12s paint a humid picture from Friday.  Plenty of thunderstorms but some decent warmth 25c to 28c quite widely. Will feel great after this low cloud cool fest we've had to put up with here.
 

With those temperatures we need full sunshine more than 10 hours to generate those temperatures more so in the mornings as we been robbed from those for weeks from the nasty cloud fest that prevent a morning rise.  The apps had been very wrong lately with sunny and high teens to 20 only end up overcast at low 10's now they put high temps and 3 days 24r hours rain nonstop with no sun so I expect the opposite. 🤣

That's more like it. Lovely ECM this evening.  Setting up a genuinely hot pattern. Lovely stuff!
 

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But then to be fair, you have always struggled to see things from someone else's point of view. 😀

And always will, and make no apologies for it. When that view is ridiculous of course. 

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That's more like it. Lovely ECM this evening.  Setting up a genuinely hot pattern. Lovely stuff!
 

Indeed! Bring it on! Just get that within nailed on reach 

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Can't post the link, as I don't know how, but the newly released ECMWF seasonal forecast for July, August & September is strongly pointing towards return of drought conditions, with enhanced risk of high temperatures.
This looks very similar to last summer. Can lightning strike same place twice?
Possibly not so hot as there is no heat in the south of Europe, but things can change fast.

Return to drought? With no significant rain likely here for the rest of June it will have been mid-May to September here in Essex. This follows last year's lowest recorded rainfall here.

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The Meto 12z totally scrubbing out any rainfall over much of the country. Bone dry here in North Cumbria out to 168h. 

Very conflicting comments in here regarding general wetness/ drought unfolding for the Uk.
Meanwhile, Met office medium and long range text looks like it’s been written by a 6 year old today. 

WX charts show warm weather widespread over NW Europe, and moving steadily N-wards over Britain in the next 2 weeks. By the end of week 2 the significant cold area is only over N Scandinavia and N Russia plus a tiny patch over the Alps. Dry around the N Sea in week 1 with the persistent band of wet weather across S Europe; in week 2 the dry area is still there but the rain has moved E-wards to the Balkans, and some is appearing near NW Scotland (though not as much as shown yesterday)

GFS Op - HP moves off to Scandinavia by Sun 11th allowing S-ly drift with some LP moving N from France, but by Wed 14th the HP is back over Scotland with E/NE-ly winds back for the rest of the week. From Sun 18th pressure drops over the UK with LP off the Hebrides 995mb Tue 20th and a trough from it over the rest of Britain. That LP moves back into the Atlantic by FRi 23rd with SW-lies for all. Pressure remains low over the continent for much of this period and could affect S England at times.

ECM - similar to GFS to Sun 11th but the HP then stays out to the east, admittedly looking rather flabby, but enough to continue the theme of S-ly drift and shallow LP from France through to Thu 15th. I'm going out now so don't have time to wait for ECM 0z after that, but the 12z from yesterday shows HP spreading back over Britain but centred further S than on GFS thus avoiding E-ly winds.

GEFS - becoming warm or very warm around Sun 11th before slowly decreasing to norm by Fri 23rd with good agreement from ens members. Some rain from time to time, most likely following 11th and then again Mon 19th in S & E, more general in W, very dry in NE Scotland.

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Very nice ECM this morning would be very close to 30c on a couple of days if it verifies. 
 

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A tentative shift towards something a bit more settled again next week across the models at least for a while.

If the latest GFS is to be believed, the rains are set to return to the UK over the weekend and there is little respite from that point onwards. Perhaps we are all set for a June monsoon after all?

Fairly warm but if cloud amounts are high I don't see any 'proper' heatwave. 

I read this post yesterday and couldn't really see anything to justify it. Very light rain and blobs indicating showers which we know would be sporadic and well spaced. No widespread rain at all. What was I missing?

EDIT: Just taken a look at the latest version and again, a lot of lightish areas but diffuse and never gains traction except perhaps in the far south west. This is in accordance with the UKMO outlook of course, but doesn't represent 'little respite' unless you're meaning from largely dry calm weather, if not wall to wall sunshine accompanied by heatwaves.

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Very nice ECM this morning would be very close to 30c on a couple of days if it verifies. 
 

Goes to show how easy it is to reach hot temps now without a consistent pattern. Think any heat this year might be accompanied by some stormy weather