Looks like a genuinely hot ECM tonight.  It drifts the high east so we pick up a sultry south easterly. 
 

The SE'ly scenario isn't supported by its ensembles (like GEFS, they're majority NE'ly right out to 15 days), but there are signs of a warmer, more humid waft next weekend. Both GEFS/EPS have temperatures into the low 20s here, which with an onshore NE'ly persisting would suggest a warm airmass is involved...

 

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The SE'ly scenario isn't supported by its ensembles (like GEFS, they're majority NE'ly right out to 15 days), but there are signs of a warmer, more humid waft next weekend. Both GEFS/EPS have temperatures into the low 20s here, which with an onshore NE'ly persisting would suggest a warm airmass is involved...

 

Seems to be a growing theme on the Ops now . Seriously warm ECM this morning.  15c 850s making an appearance. 
 

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WX charts still unstable. In the west, the heat over Spain and France in week 1 is now shown as making it north to cover all of Britain (exc very far north) in week 2 while in the east the cool patch over Finland & W Russia not only persists but now shown in week 2 as moving south to Romania. In week 1 there is a very dry area for countries around the N Sea in week 1, persisting but becoming fragmented in week 2, with rain for most other areas in Europe. 

GFS Op - HP near NW Scotland to start with with E/NE-lies continuing, drifting a little eastwards by Fri 9th thus switching winds into the SE before resuming its position to the NW Wed 14th. Then it declines to become no more than a col Mon 19th between LPs in mid Atlantic (looking as if it may move closer) and the N Baltic. 

ECM - similar to GFS this week but then a more definite movement of HP eastwards, situated over Sweden Mon 12th with winds definitely from the S, even bringing up shallow LPs from France in the flow. The ens temps marginally higher than GFS around 11th, say 6-7C above norm, but much less agreement on a breakdown after that, esp for the north.

GEFS - temps rising gradually to 4-5C above norm around Sun 11th then with less ens agreement dropping back to norm Mon 19th with a few notably cold outliers esp in the N & E. Some chances of rain after Sun 11th, greater in the W. 

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WX charts still unstable. In the west, the heat over Spain and France in week 1 is now shown as making it north to cover all of Britain (exc very far north) in week 2 while in the east the cool patch over Finland & W Russia not only persists but now shown in week 2 as moving south to Romania. In week 1 there is a very dry area for countries around the N Sea in week 1, persisting but becoming fragmented in week 2, with rain for most other areas in Europe. 

GFS Op - HP near NW Scotland to start with with E/NE-lies continuing, drifting a little eastwards by Fri 9th thus switching winds into the SE before resuming its position to the NW Wed 14th. Then it declines to become no more than a col Mon 19th between LPs in mid Atlantic (looking as if it may move closer) and the N Baltic. 

ECM - similar to GFS this week but then a more definite movement of HP eastwards, situated over Sweden Mon 12th with winds definitely from the S, even bringing up shallow LPs from France in the flow. The ens temps marginally higher than GFS around 11th, say 6-7C above norm, but much less agreement on a breakdown after that, esp for the north.

GEFS - temps rising gradually to 4-5C above norm around Sun 11th then with less ens agreement dropping back to norm Mon 19th with a few notably cold outliers esp in the N & E. Some chances of rain after Sun 11th, greater in the W. 

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GFS 6z continues the theme of a warm up late next week with the high drifting east allowing a south easterly wind. It has 30c for the 12th and 29c for the 13th. The 13th is the only Summer day never to get to 30c. Could this be the year?
 

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Seems to be a growing theme on the Ops now . Seriously warm ECM this morning.  15c 850s making an appearance. 
 

It'll be interesting to see whether the ops are going off on one or not... it's far from the first time that the ensembles, both GFS and ECM, show a strong NE'ly picture (out to day 10 and beyond), but the op doesn't.

If there's to be a SE'ly "plume", it'll pass over Kent first, but as you can see the ensembles really aren't keen on anything south of east - just look at those wind roses!

You can get a chart for your area by clicking on this map - mine (north Kent) is below.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=337&y=147&run=6&runpara=0&type=4&ext=1 

The ECM ensembles paint a similar picture, by far the most likely direction is NE through next weekend and beyond:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202306030000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.3973&lon=0.921564&station_name=Leysdown-on-Sea 

The interesting thing there is the uplift in temperatures... getting a median of 26C (on Sunday) with a wind off the sea is quite something.

You can plot charts for other areas by using my ECM link and typing in a location on the left of the webpage.

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iPhone app is sniffing the wind of change with 28C for my area by next weekend. We shall see…

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The seesaw between very wet and very dry is quite something in this neck of the woods. We'll be approaching 5 weeks straight without rain if the latest model output verifies - quite unusual here. I'd also love to see the sunshine stats for this period - day after day of unbroken sunshine from dawn till dusk.

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WX temp charts showing an east-west split. Hot weather spreading up from Spain into France and by week 2, Germany; Britain especially England getting a fair share of this by week 2. At the same time cooler from Finland down to Romania with Russia near the Urals becoming quite cold. Very dry over N Sea and Baltic week 1, rain elsewhere generally in week 1, but a change in week 2, with rain at hand in Scotland and Norway, damp more generally in NW Europe. Rain still in the Alps but decreasing but transferring eastwards with deluges around the Black Sea.

GFS Op - HP continues over Scotland (but only 1025mb, not so intense) until Friday when it withdraws to the NE as LP approaches the SW - not that close, but enough to switch winds into the S and bring up shallow secondary LP from France. By Mon 12th the main LP is in mid-Atlantic, a shallow LP 1015mb is over Belgium, and HP is well to the east at St Petersburg 1030mb. The LP then moves NE and through to Thu 20th the 'normal' summer pattern develops with LP near Iceland, the Azores high poking a ridge into England, and a westerly regime for Britain as a whole.

ECM - treats the HP differently, keeping it stronger so still dominant on Friday with the Atlantic LP correspondingly weaker, and winds more SE-ly than S-ly. By Wed 14th this model looks quite different to GFS with the HP having transferred to Iceland, the Atlantic LP down near the Azores, and England at least under the influence of continental LP stretching up from Italy (and the NE-lies are back!)

GEFS - steadily becoming very warm by Mon 12th, then mean dropping back slowly to norm (though op run is still a very warm outlier Tue 18th  at least in the S , and conversely the control is a cold outlier more widely). Chances of rain in most places from Sun 11th onwards (though BBC suggesting some heavy showers in the S/SW a day or two earlier), more general and heavier rain in the NW from this date. (Norwich has one ens member with a monster deluge on Sun 11th!)

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A real Flaming June showing on the 6Z, as next weekend's Spanish plume quickly gives way to the Azores High moving north by the end of the following working week.

Some thundery potential bringing convection, before a return to warmer high pressure. Looks like a great start to summer.

 

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A real Flaming June showing on the 6Z, as next weekend's Spanish plume quickly gives way to the Azores High moving north by the end of the following working week.

Some thundery potential bringing convection, before a return to warmer high pressure. Looks like a great start to summer.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 

That set up was like that in the 90s to 2006 with AZ Hp move in after a hot spell so great set up more sunshine with low 30s then low 20s days no stupid cloudy cold days like we seem to get recently every time after a single day heat spike rubbish.

WX charts start in week 1 with warm/hot weather from the W Med extending into NW Europe. This continues to push N-wards in week 2 on its western edge to encompass all of Britain. W Russia is cool in week 1 but warming slowly; and there are patches of cooler weather persisting in Czechia, Romania and Turkey. Dry in week 1 from Britain to Baltic; in week 2 from Spain to N Sea though perhaps some convective activity over the British Isles; the area through the N Med, Pyrenees - Adriatic - Black Sea, continues (still!) to be the wettest part of Europe.

GFS Op - HP near Scotland moving NE-wards to Norway by Sat 10th, switching the winds from NE-ly to SE-ly thus probably warmer. Then for the following week Britain under slack LP originating both from mid-Atlantic (mostly early on) and from the Continent (mostly later). By Sun 18th HP re-asserts itself as a ridge from the Azores to N Norway, not lasting, and as so often this summer splitting into two centres at the ends of this range leaving Britain under a col by Wed 21st. Yesterday's suggestion of a zonal spell has gone.

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP moves nearer to  Iceland than Norway, and then next week's LP is more influenced by that from the Continent than from the Atlantic.

GEFS - temps rising to a maximum of about 6C above norm Sun 11th (a day or two later in Scotland) with good ens agreement, then most ens members accompanying the mean back to just above norm by Wed 21st but with increasing uncertainty. Some rain in many ens members from Sun 11th, less in the E but there are some big totals in the odd run there.

Jet steam running irregularly but for the next ten days well to the S, variously as far south as the Canaries and S Spain, then on into the Mediterranean; after that developing a new streak over N Greenland.

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I'm loving the GFS 12z today - at least in the medium term. 12C highs and rain in mid-June down here? Yes please! 😍

Fat chance of that happening, though. This weekend's muggy fest is much more likely, of course! Beyond that is still very much up for grabs, whether it's a return to stronger NE'lies again or a switch to a warmer, wetter SW'ly flow remains to be seen.

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I'm loving the GFS 12z today - at least in the medium term. 12C highs and rain in mid-June down here? Yes please! 😍

Fat chance of that happening, though. This weekend's muggy fest is much more likely, of course! Beyond that is still very much up for grabs, whether it's a return to stronger NE'lies again or a switch to a warmer, wetter SW'ly flow remains to be seen.

You truly are a miserable git 🤣🤣🤣

Fretting about everything in the world and wishing it rained every day. Christ. 

Personally I’m hoping for a repeat of last summer - just hotter. Been a decent average-feeling spring. The last couple of weeks have been lovely

The outlook remains decent enough. Plenty to hold on to here in the opening days of Summer. 6 months of potentially decent weather ahead. Maybe more. We were in tee shirts and shorts in November last year 

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You truly are a miserable git 🤣🤣🤣

Fretting about everything in the world and wishing it rained every day. Christ. 

As you yourself said the other day, Matty, "Once a bully, always a bully". You would know that very well, of course, despite the emojis.

One of the things bullies do is exaggerate things. I don't want it to rain every day, but what I do want to see is average rainfall - spaced over a month, not the year. That means several days a month with rain, which surely isn't much to ask of a maritime nation such as ours.
I also don't want to have to spend more nights in a hotel because it's simply uninhabitable at home - as was the case last year when we had that 40C day. Beats me why anybody would think that was a good thing, but hey-ho.

 

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As you yourself said the other day, Matty, "Once a bully, always a bully". You would know that very well, of course, despite the emojis.

One of the things bullies do is exaggerate things. I don't want it to rain every day, but what I do want to see is average rainfall - spaced over a month, not the year. That means several days a month with rain, which surely isn't much to ask of a maritime nation such as ours.
I also don't want to have to spend more nights in a hotel because it's simply uninhabitable at home - as was the case last year when we had that 40C day. Beats me why anybody would think that was a good thing, but hey-ho.

 

Why dont you get air con if your that affected by the heat? The portable ones do the job for small rooms such as a bedroom though they make a racket. Back to the weather signs in the ens that this amazing spell of cool NE spell could finally break 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=299&y=100&run=18&runpara=0&type=8&ext=1  

But if the op proves correct the cool spell has no end in sight. Do not remember ever seeing a run with such low temps all the way through at this time of year, even more so as its on the back of a long cool/dry spell 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=311&y=98&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

Why dont you get air con if your that affected by the heat? The portable ones do the job for small rooms such as a bedroom though they make a racket. Back to the weather signs in the ens that this amazing spell of cool NE spell could finally break 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=299&y=100&run=18&runpara=0&type=8&ext=1  

But if the op proves correct the cool spell has no end in sight. Do not remember ever seeing a run with such low temps all the way through at this time of year, even more so as its on the back of a long cool/dry spell 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=311&y=98&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

I do have a portable air-con, and it's very useful. The snag is they stop working once the ambient temperature reaches 35C or so - as their compressor overheats. They simply won't turn on. Proper air-con is going to be increasingly common, I think, and I will probably end up going down that route - it's cheaper than demolishing and rebuilding the house!

There's definitely signs of a change in the ensembles, going back to the models. The ECM ensembles show the weekend onwards having temperatures in the low to mid 20s down here; after a couple of aimless days over the weekend the NE'lies return, but much lighter in nature.

GEFS meanwhile has lost the NE'ly signal in the long term now, and after a spell of "could be any direction" after the weekend, shows SW'lies gaining dominance. Last night's 12z op run was a remarkably cold outlier and it's no surprise that the 18z was closer to the pack.

The one thing that shows in both models is a period of generally well above average 850s. Currently it's the strength of the NE'lies that's minimising those effects, but once the winds drop they'll have much more of an effect.

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I do have a portable air-con, and it's very useful. The snag is they stop working once the ambient temperature reaches 35C or so - as their compressor overheats. They simply won't turn on. Proper air-con is going to be increasingly common, I think, and I will probably end up going down that route - it's cheaper than demolishing and rebuilding the house!

There's definitely signs of a change in the ensembles, going back to the models. The ECM ensembles show the weekend onwards having temperatures in the low to mid 20s down here; after a couple of aimless days over the weekend the NE'lies return, but much lighter in nature.

GEFS meanwhile has lost the NE'ly signal in the long term now, and after a spell of "could be any direction" after the weekend, shows SW'lies gaining dominance. Last night's 12z op run was a remarkably cold outlier and it's no surprise that the 18z was closer to the pack.

The one thing that shows in both models is a period of generally well above average 850s. Currently it's the strength of the NE'lies that's minimising those effects, but once the winds drop they'll have much more of an effect.

My mum just had air con fitted as she really struggles in the heat from health reasons. As you say the portable ones cant keep up when it gets to hot, and the crazy 40C last year made her get it fitted. Funny thing is its had little use so far since it was fitted. Its so quite compared to the portable + uses less electric overall and can be used as a heater in the Winter. Was a very good investment imo if you struggle in the heat.

Nearly all the continental area of NW Europe staying warm or very warm according to WX summary, but Britain getting less of a share in this than yesterday. N Scandinavia and W Russia staying cool, this area moving eastwards, also a little patch around Austria. Rain in week 1 in the same pattern as for many weeks past, very dry for N Sea to Baltic, and the band of rain across the N Med. Then a change for week 2 (and different from yesterday) as Atlantic pptn moves into Britain and the area over Italy starts to shift Ne into Austria.

GFS Op - LP on the Atlantic (storm Oscar, it's been damaging the Canaries) slowly taking over from the current HP and from Fri 9th directing a more S-ly flow for Britain with embedded shallow LPs drifting N from France (though MetO forecasts don't think these will generate much rain). Then a week of indeterminate pressure patterns before the Atlantic wakes up and pushes LP into Britain (1000mb SW Ireland Sat 17th, then again 995mb NW Ireland Wed 21st). Our recent resident HP spends the first week over Norway before moving to Greenland and fizzling out in week 2.

ECM - is more definite after Wed 14th with the Atlantic LP retreating W-ward and HP re-establishing in an arc Greenland-Britain-Azores; and the NE-lies are back! Thus likely to be much drier than GFS in week 2.

GEFS - becoming warm/very warm around Sun 11th then gradually back to seasonal norm by Thu 22nd. Rain in most ens members from Sun 11th (In the S, in intermittent heavy bursts at first. Relatively little in E Anglia and NE Scotland).

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As you yourself said the other day, Matty, "Once a bully, always a bully". You would know that very well, of course, despite the emojis.

One of the things bullies do is exaggerate things. I don't want it to rain every day, but what I do want to see is average rainfall - spaced over a month, not the year. That means several days a month with rain, which surely isn't much to ask of a maritime nation such as ours.
I also don't want to have to spend more nights in a hotel because it's simply uninhabitable at home - as was the case last year when we had that 40C day. Beats me why anybody would think that was a good thing, but hey-ho.

 

I love it. Can’t understand why anyone would check into a hotel because it’s hot either. I wonder how many people felt they had to do that to get aircon. Maybe health related I could understand. 

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