UKV 15z looks interesting for my patch tomorrow.

---

ECM also has 10cm to 20cm widely by Friday morning. 

https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2023_03/1.jpg.f1307176511706e75d87df5d8a46177e.jpg 
 

---

After looking at UKV in more detail I would be a little circumspect about tomorrow's event. Apart from over high ground there isn't much snow at all.



https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=29&chartname=snow_depth&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Snow%20depth 



 

---

After looking at UKV in more detail I would be a little circumspect about tomorrow's event. Apart from over high ground there isn't much snow at all.



https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=29&chartname=snow_depth&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Snow%20depth 



 

Is that new snow depth or is that model suggesting all the snow here will have melted by tomorrow evening?

Edit: Actually acording to the UKV data there is no snow here at the moment.

---

I’m in Lancashire from tomorrow afternoon until Friday morning. It was looking horrific over the last couple of days, but this evenings runs have watered things down somewhat for there, thankfully. 

---

Scottish news and weather really ramping up Thursday/Friday here, but looking at the models it looks like its went the usual way 👎🏻

---

After looking at UKV in more detail I would be a little circumspect about tomorrow's event. Apart from over high ground there isn't much snow at all.



https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=29&chartname=snow_depth&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Snow%20depth 



 

Indeed so, Brian. I think it would be foolish to get too excited. It simply doesn't feel cold enough here at low levels in the SE. Perhaps places with significant elevation might see some decent snowfall however. 

---

Is that new snow depth or is that model suggesting all the snow here will have melted by tomorrow evening?

Edit: Actually acording to the UKV data there is no snow here at the moment.

It's the depth of the snow lying on the surface 

---

Moderate rain showers looking likely south of the M4. Any sleety wet stuff only to fall here after dark tonight maybe tomorrow night. Then it’s back to business as usual for March standards. 

Meanwhile, Met office has about 8 hours constant hail for large areas of the south according to the weather maps. 

After looking at UKV in more detail I would be a little circumspect about tomorrow's event. Apart from over high ground there isn't much snow at all.



https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=29&chartname=snow_depth&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Snow%20depth 



 

The northern third of Ireland could be the place to be late Weds into Thurs (if driving wet snow is what one is looking for) At least according to the latest GFS. Looks downright miserable to be honest. 

---

The UKV model was crap for the December snow here massively underestimated it. 

---

It's the depth of the snow lying on the surface 

Thanks. I’d be wary of its credibility as its starting data is actually completely wrong for here. 

The ECM  model does seem to suggesting more widespread lying snow however it does often have a tendency to overdo things. Having said that it has underestimated the starting snow depth here too.

Here’s the picture at 48hr https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20230309-1200z.html 

By day 6 it shows quite a bit of the white stuff up here. We’ll see. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20230313-1200z.html  

---

model animation on BBC Scotland just seemed to skirt Dumfries and east coast/borders before spiralling away… on this occasion didn't seem to reach central belt ‘subject to change’

---

The ECM  model does seem to suggesting more widespread lying snow however it has a tendency to overdo things. Having said that it has underestimated the starting snow depth here too.
  

I've noticed this for a number of years now regarding the ECM. They way I tend to read snow depth charts these days is just to see them as showing the regions which has the greatest chance of seeing snow falling with depth being an insignificant secondary thought 
The ECM is best, I think, at predicting rain amounts and the locations it will fall in. Like snow amounts though, I also find that it overdoes windspeeds as well during major events. The GFS and the UKMO, more often than not, triumph over the ECM in these regards I think 

---

Thanks. I’d be wary of its credibility as its starting data is actually completely wrong for here. 

The ECM  model does seem to suggesting more widespread lying snow however it does often have a tendency to overdo things. Having said that it has underestimated the starting snow depth here too.

Here’s the picture at 48hr https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20230309-1200z.html 

By day 6 it shows quite a bit of the white stuff up here. We’ll see. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20230313-1200z.html  

Yes, I’m cautious with ECM snow depths.  

I’ve been through all the high res models and the consensus is for periods of sleet and snow here in the morning and again later and overnight into the early hours of Thursday.  The snow depths, where available, offer anywhere between a dusting and 5cm or more.

 

---

'Snow line' forecast up until Thurs morning. Favourable for snow throughout. 



 

---

Very mild ECM with that trough sitting in the atlantic unable to move across 

---

It's the UK, it's snow - we know by now that you can only wait and see what happens. Whatever happens it looks unlikely to be around for many by the weekend. I hope those that didn't get to see any in December get to at least watch some falling in the next couple of days.

---

MOGREPS has increased the risk of snow in the south tomorrow morning, but the "big event" in the afternoon and evening seems to have shifted to Midlands.  

---

I don't get the BBC forecast… the moving front graphics bear less resemblance to the huge swathe of yellow warning zone?  Some areas of Scotland on Friday look dry cool and sunny…?

---