...and quelle surprise, the 12z run is just 10C warmer at the same time!  🤣

Normal service has been resumed. (And it's good to see this kind of stuff doesn't just happen in winter, with heavy snow "poofing" between runs...)

Starting to look like quite a wet day Tuesday -Wednesday for the south.

Decent set of 0z this morning.  Especially the GEM again . GEM control is basically 1976 redux. Even GFS has 30c for next Saturday but it's still more unsettled than the rest.
 

Looks like a short lived plume as the Atlantic shoves it all east. JMA looking particularly wet in 7_8 days time

Starting to look like quite a wet day Tuesday -Wednesday for the south.

GFS as usual is really oscillating around, the past three runs have, for here, had 27mm, 17mm and now 4mm from the rain Tuesday into Wednesday. (They then have had showers on Wednesday, but they're more miss than hit when GFS forecasts them).

UKV just has showers, while ECM has only a couple of mm.

I'm not expecting much down here TBH, but it'll be a nice surprise if it's more.

Further north it's a different story, of course!

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ECM is yet another run that keeps the trigger low west and draws up warm air from the south in a plumey scenario. Several runs, from various models, have toyed with this solution now. Cannot be discounted. 

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ECM is yet another run that keeps the trigger low west and draws up warm air from the south in a plumey scenario. Several runs, from various models, have toyed with this solution now. Cannot be discounted. 

Need to see warm weather return to bring indoor temps back to mid 20's getting nervous to see temps falling slowly to 22C after 3 days cold winds and overcast weather.  

Disappointing 0z this morning . The briefest of plumes followed by more of the same unsettled ish NW-SE split, but not what most of us want in July. Looking more and more likely we'll have to wait until the 2nd half of July for anything properly decent. 

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It all looks a bit stuck in a rut in the same way as much of June but with rather different synoptics.

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Resuming ...

As Dr M says, WX temp and pptn charts look stuck for the next two weeks - a gradation from N to S, Britain across to Scandinavia a little cooler, France across to Poland a little warmer than average. Rain well distributed but some increase for N Britain and Scandinavia in week 2.

GFS Op - LPs drifting across Britain from the Atlantic to Scandinavia with a general W-ly theme; perhaps sticking out to the west briefly Sat 8th long enough to pump up some heat from the S, though for the following weekend actually centred over Britain so more unsettled.

ECM - similar to GFS, perhaps a little less mobile

GEFS - temps cool for now; briefly warmer Sat 8th esp in SE, then close to or a little below norm for the foreseeable, Small amounts of rain from time to time in the S, rather more in the N.

A typical British summer under Atlantic influence

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Interesting GFS goes out to 19th July which was a little warm last year! Looks markedly different on this one run in the far distance, wouldn’t it be boring if it was the same each year

I'll start a new thread soon.

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