I don't get the BBC forecast… the moving front graphics bear less resemblance to the huge swathe of yellow warning zone?  Some areas of Scotland on Friday look dry cool and sunny…?

Its all looking like its staying to the south and not even getting as far as northern England, yellow warning probably remains “just incase “ Its games a bogey for snow here now i think, first time in my life i can remember we have had absolutely no snow here 👎🏻

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GFS18Z is quite incredible for Yorkshire

Firstly the probability of snow tommorow when it was never forecast through either a humber streamer or the front itself has gone up.

Secondly we are holding steady on the main event Thursday/Friday

And now we have another snow event on Saturday/Sunday!!!
 

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Seriously? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_180_48.png 

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Seriously? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_180_48.png 

It does feel like we are on the brink of something truly historic.
 

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ARPEGE18Z also refusing to entertain the idea of bringing in milder conditions by the weekend.
 

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if the 18z op run is near the middle of the pack then Scotland looks cold for the next 10 days and even further cold incursions south for a while. It is really going away as quickly as usual I don't think.

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I know it's not really model stuff, but xcweather for Edinburgh has flipped from 6c and drizzly next Monday to half a metre of snow and 0c, but it's always shown great snow for 5/6 days time for the last week.or so...

I'm just gonna roll some dice and make my own predictions 😙 
 

Central belt now looks set to miss out on the thurs/fri snow event, with it mostly staying south of border.
may be a chance of a dusting places as the east wind off the top of the low blows in a bit of a forth streamer? One to keep an eye on.  I think it's what the arpege is trying to show.  

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Central belt now looks set to miss out on the thurs/fri snow event, with it mostly staying south of border.
may be a chance of a dusting places as the east wind off the top of the low blows in a bit of a forth streamer? One to keep an eye on.  I think it's what the arpege is trying to show.  

Yep the output has been struggling to bring the low on Thu/Fri much above the Scottish Borders . This has happen a lot in the past in this type of situation . I guess this would be good for those further South as the colder air already established looks more like it might hang around .

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ICON0Z seems to be much further north than the 21Z and the 18Z

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My thoughts on Thursday are that patience will be required. It might be Thursday night before the heavier stuff arrives and anything light during the day won't settle as it will be too warm. May also end up being a high ground event only. Time to change but the system may not end up being as disruptive as first thought. 

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My thoughts on Thursday are that patience will be required. It might be Thursday night before the heavier stuff arrives and anything light during the day won't settle as it will be too warm. May also end up being a high ground event only. Time to change but the system may not end up being as disruptive as first thought. 

I agree Tim. It seems that a narrower area will get the heaviest snow. Maybe North Wales, the North Midlands, Lancs and Yorks?

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Looking at the GFS 00z, it's still cold in the north on the 24th!

If that happens it's going to be a low March mean up here

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Looking at the GFS 00z, it's still cold in the north on the 24th!

If that happens it's going to be a low March mean up here

Thankfully the latter stages are very much on the colder side of the ensemble suite. Having said that the next week looks cold in northern parts on much of this morning’s output.

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FAX continuing to show locations of fronts; lying along the S coastal counties today, looking marginal as between snow and heavy rain. The action shifts N-wards tomorrow Thu with LP 981mb Bristol and fronts wrapped round the north of it. This moves off to the E quite sharply and on Fri HP briefly appears over the N Sea, some weak-looking fronts in the SW but air beginning to move up from the S, and this covering the whole country by Sat.

WX charts week 1 cold or v cold across N Europe from Scotland to Baltic, quite mild further S; in week 2 the freezing area shrinks noticeably and Europe S of the Baltic looking average for the time of year, not as mild as week1. Pptn in week 1 is a broad band lying E-W from Britain to Baltic, shifting its orientation in Week 2 N-S Norway - Britain - W Med.

GFS Op - current LP moving E as above, after brief SW-ly another LP moves across  Britain 975mb Ireland Mon 13th, weak N-lies behind it; then a repeat with a SW-ly, LP crossing Britain 985mb Bristol Sat 18th and N-lies behind (though these promote a local LP 995mb Brittany Wed 22nd with NE-lies for a while. 

ECM similar but takes the LP Sat 18th further N, 985 mb Hebrides

GEFS - temps in S up 9th, down 11th, up 13th, down 15th, then although the mean recovers to norm this is only as a mid-point in a wide spread of ens members. Quite a lot of rain or snow week 1, still raining but not as heavy week 2. Similar up and down profile for N of England week 1 but pptn much heavier and a high chance of snow, quieter and like the S in week 2. Scotland misses the up-and-down with temps simply recovering slowly to norm by Sun 19th, some pptn at any time with chance of snow persisting esp in the Highlands.

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Quite a cold GFS run so far and more in the way of cold air returning to the south too. 

Scotland looks to stay in the cold air throughout (upto T198 so far), with some frontal snowfall along with snow showers. Snow/rain boundary wanders around for England, biased towards snowier for the North and rainier for the south as you'd expect but even for the far South there's the possibility of some more snow at times.

 

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Yes, quite a potent northerly is setting up for next week followed by who knows what at this stage
Winter aint done yet
 

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some very cold members appearing. uppers could be colder than this week. Hopefully a block can develop to hold off the atlantic trough
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=1&code=3&ext=0 

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The GEFS are showing an insane spread in t850s just 24 hours away for N Yorkshire they range from just above 0c to nearly -10c just 24 hours away! Not sure what is still causing such uncertainty at such short range.

Also looking like the cold will return early next week after a brief warm up Saturday night into Sunday.

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Arpege has a snowfest lasting almost 24 hours from Thursday morning for a large area covering the North Midlands/North Wales/NW England/the western two-thirds of Yorkshire/NE England. Perhaps a snow/sleet/rain mix toward western coasts/into Cheshire.


The sweet spots look like being the Peak District & North Wales, where I wouldn't be surprised to see in excess of 30cm for areas with some altitude
 

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