Arpege has a snowfest lasting almost 24 hours from Thursday morning for a large area covering the North Midlands/North Wales/NW England/the western two-thirds of Yorkshire/NE England. Perhaps a snow/sleet/rain mix toward western coasts/into Cheshire.


The sweet spots look like being the Peak District & North Wales, where I wouldn't be surprised to see in excess of 30cm for areas with some altitude
 

Show snow fest for Nuneaton tom all day at max 1C as well and wife message me snow heavy now there while cold rain in congested heat urban area of Slough. 

Arpege has a snowfest lasting almost 24 hours from Thursday morning for a large area covering the North Midlands/North Wales/NW England/the western two-thirds of Yorkshire/NE England. Perhaps a snow/sleet/rain mix toward western coasts/into Cheshire.


The sweet spots look like being the Peak District & North Wales, where I wouldn't be surprised to see in excess of 30cm for areas with some altitude
 

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Just watched the BBC weather forecast and the weather looks awful for the next few days. Like the worst of January. Mostly wet, cold and sleety. Even for Northern England it looks like they will get similar to what we've had this morning - plenty of snow on high ground but a mix of rain, sleet and non-settling snow in towns and low ground. Mind , they've only got to be a dgree or so out for that to change.

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Just watched the BBC weather forecast and the weather looks awful for the next few days. Like the worst of January. Mostly wet, cold and sleety. Even for Northern England it looks like they will get similar to what we've had this morning - plenty of snow on high ground but a mix of rain, sleet and non-settling snow in towns and low ground. Mind , they've only got to be a dgree or so out for that to change.

Yes indeed, a case where one degree makes a difference between a wet snow wonderland and a rainfest (with a bit of sleet).

ECM came out best IMBY (it had sleet for most of the day today), followed by the GFS (which had snow all morning, then rain) and lastly the UKV (which kept it as rain, not even sleet).

It's a real shame that the GFS handles snow so poorly, as it doesn't handle sleet (our sleet, that is, rather than the American ice pellet version). ECM has much better parameters, even differentiating between powdery snow and wet snow. The same applied to the GFS would be a very much-needed upgrade. It's a reminder, too, that as it stands GFS pops up a "snow" flag even if it's a few flakes of snow amongst the rain - woe betide anyone taking those tempting snow symbols as gospel at times like this!

 

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Agree with the comments about GFS /  GEFS snow depths. Nonetheless, I've just added in GEFS snow depth postage stamps which can be viewed here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=006&chartname=ps_uksnowdepth&chartregion=uk&p=1&charttag=PS%20Snow%20depth 

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Just watched the BBC weather forecast and the weather looks awful for the next few days. Like the worst of January. Mostly wet, cold and sleety. Even for Northern England it looks like they will get similar to what we've had this morning - plenty of snow on high ground but a mix of rain, sleet and non-settling snow in towns and low ground. Mind , they've only got to be a dgree or so out for that to change.

yes, this damp, grey, wet, miserable squib was set in stone the moment the Beeb selected Darren Bett to do the lates yesterday. He has clearly been at the controls!!

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Yes indeed, a case where one degree makes a difference between a wet snow wonderland and a rainfest (with a bit of sleet).

ECM came out best IMBY (it had sleet for most of the day today), followed by the GFS (which had snow all morning, then rain) and lastly the UKV (which kept it as rain, not even sleet).


It's a real shame that the GFS handles snow so poorly, as it doesn't handle sleet (our sleet, that is, rather than the American ice pellet version). ECM has much better parameters, even differentiating between powdery snow and wet snow. The same applied to the GFS would be a very much-needed upgrade. It's a reminder, too, that as it stands GFS pops up a "snow" flag even if it's a few flakes of snow amongst the rain - woe betide anyone taking those tempting snow symbols as gospel at times like this!

 

indeed this has been a disappointment for the vast majority of the UK population and indeed the proper snow is almost entirely outside the populous areas of the UK.

as an aside, a huge forecasting miss again for the BBC, who were ramping 5-10cm for large swathes of the S/E yesterday. 

they have now got both S/Eastern snowfalls this winter wrong - albeit in opposite directions (the December one called for 2-3 inches and delivered more than 6 here!)

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Arpege has a snowfest lasting almost 24 hours from Thursday morning for a large area covering the North Midlands/North Wales/NW England/the western two-thirds of Yorkshire/NE England. Perhaps a snow/sleet/rain mix toward western coasts/into Cheshire.


The sweet spots look like being the Peak District & North Wales, where I wouldn't be surprised to see in excess of 30cm for areas with some altitude
 

Snow warning now gone Amber.......

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Snow warning now gone Amber.......

Away from the higher areas, it's still yellow - but good luck! I'm travelling to Derby on Sunday, and may be tempted to take the scenic route via Buxton!!

 

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Away from the higher areas, it's still yellow - but good luck! I'm travelling to Derby on Sunday, and may be tempted to take the scenic route via Buxton!!

 

Should be plenty high enough for some fun and games here hopefully............

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After having a chance to look at several models, I think for much of lowland NW England/N Midlands, it's likely to be a snow-rain-snow event

 

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indeed this has been a disappointment for the vast majority of the UK population and indeed the proper snow is almost entirely outside the populous areas of the UK. as an aside, a huge forecasting miss again for the BBC, who were ramping 5-10cm for large swathes of the S/E yesterday.  they have now got both S/Eastern snowfalls this winter wrong - albeit in opposite directions (the December one called for 2-3 inches and delivered more than 6 here!)

there was about 4 inches in Tunbridge Wells this morning...the disruptive cold rain commenced around 9.30am....

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Yes, lots of interest across swathes of the UK despite some parochial attitude shown on here, thankfully that’s not the majority view.

In northern parts the cold looks like lasting until at least the weekend and potentially returning after a brief milder blip. The t850hPa mean on the 12z GEFS suite dips to 11.2°C here on Saturday. If this pattern continues, as has been mentioned elsewhere, the month could turn out to be significantly below average in terms of temperature.

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Re CP's post above: it was intended for the Russian Invasion thread and CP has re-posted it there, and (I think) has tried to delete it here. But it's still showing up, and won't move, edit or be quoted, even for a moderator! so just ignore it.

Now moved to its intended place by Brian

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Yes indeed, a case where one degree makes a difference between a wet snow wonderland and a rainfest (with a bit of sleet).

ECM came out best IMBY (it had sleet for most of the day today), followed by the GFS (which had snow all morning, then rain) and lastly the UKV (which kept it as rain, not even sleet).

It's a real shame that the GFS handles snow so poorly, as it doesn't handle sleet (our sleet, that is, rather than the American ice pellet version). ECM has much better parameters, even differentiating between powdery snow and wet snow. The same applied to the GFS would be a very much-needed upgrade. It's a reminder, too, that as it stands GFS pops up a "snow" flag even if it's a few flakes of snow amongst the rain - woe betide anyone taking those tempting snow symbols as gospel at times like this!

 

indeed…friends of ours live in West Dean…4.5 miles north of Chichester….reported a winter wonderland first thing  whereas in Chi not even a flake of snow amidst the cold rain….West Dean is not at a much higher elevation…but further inland of course…what I found to be slightly annoying is that places like Western Super-mare right on the coast appeared to have a smattering of snow…still puzzling how that can be whereas Chi…5 mikes or so inland still only had rain….some sort of micro climate I guess… 

Re CP's post above: it was intended for the Russian Invasion thread and CP has re-posted it there, and (I think) has tried to delete it here. But it's still showing up, and won't move, edit or be quoted, even for a moderator! so just ignore it.

I'm really, really sorry about that, Dew. It was indeed meant for another thread. I deleted the post [color=var(--bs-body-color)] and it seems to be gone on my end at least. I really hope it is not showing up for others on this to thread either [/color]

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Yes indeed, a case where one degree makes a difference between a wet snow wonderland and a rainfest (with a bit of sleet).

ECM came out best IMBY (it had sleet for most of the day today), followed by the GFS (which had snow all morning, then rain) and lastly the UKV (which kept it as rain, not even sleet).

It's a real shame that the GFS handles snow so poorly, as it doesn't handle sleet (our sleet, that is, rather than the American ice pellet version). ECM has much better parameters, even differentiating between powdery snow and wet snow. The same applied to the GFS would be a very much-needed upgrade. It's a reminder, too, that as it stands GFS pops up a "snow" flag even if it's a few flakes of snow amongst the rain - woe betide anyone taking those tempting snow symbols as gospel at times like this!

 

Knowing that I would saythat theirsynoptic charts have been very accurate on this and making my own snow risks from them I got pretty much what I anticipated.

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I'm really, really sorry about that, Dew. It was indeed meant for another thread. I deleted the post [color=var(--bs-body-color)] and it seems to be gone on my end at least. I really hope it is not showing up for others on this to thread either [/color]

Think I've managed to move it to the UIA. 

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Clearly it was never going to be dry blowing snow a la Scotland from this and in fact some in the S.E have been surprised that it snowed at all. But generally speaking, except for high ground, the South of England and S.E have had a thoroughly cold, wet and miserable day. I thought the TV forecasts were quite accurate actually, emphasing the difficulty in predicting snow amounts and giving the wide range, which it was, with some very local heavier amounts. In fact the BBC have just shown the "potential" for returning snow Friday as the front moves back S.E into the N.Sea, for East Anglia and Essex.
Latest GFS ensembles show good agreement for another very cold spell next week as well.
 

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Yes, lots of interest across swathes of the UK despite some parochial attitude shown on here, thankfully that’s not the majority view.

In northern parts the cold looks like lasting until at least the weekend and potentially returning after a brief milder blip. The t850hPa mean on the 12z GEFS suite dips to 11.2°C here on Saturday. If this pattern continues, as has been mentioned elsewhere, the month could turn out to be significantly below average in terms of temperature.

I think that's a tad harsh on those who did have little lying snow. My impression is that most of the 25 million people living south of the M4 were probably in that situation. 

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