Won't happen obviously, but this would be nice from the GFS. A few adjustments and it would almost be an early Spanish plume. It wouldn't take much to bring the warmth across France to the UK, but that's just me clutching at straws. I'm off work that week too! 😁


The model does hint at things become more westerly and then south-westerly as next week progresses, which would bring milder, but much more unsettled weather than we've been used to of late. It would probably be the first time it's been properly unsettled widely since early January.

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No comments?
A fairly potent northerly blast for next week and GEM goes for an easterly, GFS tries
 

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No comments?
A fairly potent northerly blast for next week and GEM goes for an easterly, GFS tries
 

ECM is much milder hopefully its onto something.  Cold rain is no fun.
 

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I think there might be room for manoeuvre to get one last chance into the far south (just to reiterate- I have not seen one flake of snow here in two years). Some of the output is playing with the idea of an easterly mid month which can deliver if the set up is just right.
In the meantime a fairly decent but brief northerly might be shaping up next week.

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ECM is much milder hopefully its onto something.  Cold rain is no fun.
 

I hope it is too but in a more convincing form as it has minus double digits minima in the coming days up north and then again on Monday night and next Friday night. I’m trying to avoid looking at the smart meter.

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I hope it is too but in a more convincing form as it has minus double digits minima in the coming days up north and then again on Monday night and next Friday night. I’m trying to avoid looking at the smart meter.

I’ve had two mornings with snow lying and today - some very heavy bouts of snow in showery form, with sleet between, but all much more exciting and meteorological interesting than anything that we’ve had this winter - bar that frosty spell, when there was but one flurry, but some amazing frost scenes.  It would have been nicer if it had been a couple of degrees colder, but these days, beggars cant be choosers. I still love to see snow falling. A shot of spring sun though is always welcome - when it comes.

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Interesting snow row spike for Exeter suddenly appearing for 11th March according the 12z GSF EnSs:

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Never being on to say I told you so but unfortunately my analysis ( in conjunction with nwp model output) for this cold spell has been fairly correct. Yes the south has seen some transient snow/slush but any notable wintry weather saved for higher elevations and midlands north.  Even a little stronger Arctic push ( the main thrust went west under Greenland ) would have made all the difference in what we saw on the ground. The far, far reaches of gfs 12z control run shows what could be still possible even towards the end of March. 
 

WX summary still has N Europe including N Britain rather cold in week 1 with the coldest area Iceland to N Russia. In week 2 a modest retreat of the coldest weather N-wards; only S Spain looking to any degree warm. A brief warming around the Caspian disappears in week 2. Plentu of pptn from the Atlantic into France and N-wards to the Baltic in week 1, withdrawing W-wards in week 2 but still affecting france and Britain. Separate patch of disturbed weather in Turkey.

FAX shows the current LP pulling away fairly quickly E-wards, but after LP and associated fronts come in from the SW, once they're through the N-lies resume by Tue 14th with a couple of local depressios (polar lows?) embedded (998mb Scotland and E Iceland)

GFS Op - current LP to Poland by tomorrow, new LP off W Scotland 975mb Mon with SW-lies, deepens and drags in N-lies on its back edge as it moves to Denmark Wed 15th. Then a quieter period with mostly SW-lies and shallow LP around until one centre deepens 985mb N Ireland Wed 22nd and re-loads N-lies briefly before HP asserts itself Sun 26th 1025mb just W of Ireland

ECM - similar to GFS until Sat 18th when the shallow LP area departs S-wards, deepening, to the Balearics while a ridge of HP 1035mb is established Scotland - Baltic and E-lies for England.

GEFS - temps moving sharply, quite widely 6 C below norm Sat, 5C above Mon 13th, back to 6C below Wed 15th, after which the majority of ens members settle close to norm. Some quite heavy rain intermittently (heaviest around Mon 13th in N, 17th in S) until Tue 21st, then drying up somewhat. 

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Lovely Spring run from the GFS 6z.  No consistency atm though.
 

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Apart from this Sunday and Monday the GFS 12z keeps Scotland cold until the 26th!
Quite cold in the rest of the UK too 🥶

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Apart from this Sunday and Monday the GFS 12z keeps Scotland cold until the 26th!
Quite cold in the rest of the UK too 🥶

It can do one - had enough of just cold rain (mostly mild rain) watching virtually the rest of the UK get at least a snowflake.
(IMBY moaning old fart mode off).
😂

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I agree Neil, the majority of the output has us wild northerners stuck in this early spring cold for much of the current outlook with the exception of a brief probably soggy period around this weekend. The GFS 12z op run is frankly a bit depressing and the ECM 12z so far is not much better.

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GEM hopefully a trend setter.
Yes, I am not yet ready for spring. 
 

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BBC Scotland going for a cold week ahead with significant bouts of further snow… better now than not getting any! 

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ECM 12z  please . I'm definitely in the wanting Spring camp. 

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Pub run gives an easterly. GEM was first to pick this up. 

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Never being on to say I told you so but unfortunately my analysis ( in conjunction with nwp model output) for this cold spell has been fairly correct. Yes the south has seen some transient snow/slush but any notable wintry weather saved for higher elevations and midlands north.  Even a little stronger Arctic push ( the main thrust went west under Greenland ) would have made all the difference in what we saw on the ground. The far, far reaches of gfs 12z control run shows what could be still possible even towards the end of March. 
 

It was always that short wave moving south last Monday that was going to scupper it for the south.  Cold air could not get fully established before the disruptive wave arrived.  Fairly sure that would not have happened in the past for that kind of set up.  Going forwards there is a significant number of members (towards 20%) below -5 on the ECM ens 850s past day 10.  Always think that when these are almost exclusively flat lining gives  proportionally extra weight   As we have seen for some in the last few days Spring wintryness though usually transient can be quite spectacular and disruptive for it's duration.

Never being on to say I told you so but unfortunately my analysis ( in conjunction with nwp model output) for this cold spell has been fairly correct. Yes the south has seen some transient snow/slush but any notable wintry weather saved for higher elevations and midlands north.  Even a little stronger Arctic push ( the main thrust went west under Greenland ) would have made all the difference in what we saw on the ground. The far, far reaches of gfs 12z control run shows what could be still possible even towards the end of March. 
 

I agree and also this reversal of zonal flow may have been too strong in the sense that it caused the blocking retrogress too north westwards to west of Greenland on Canadian side which allowed milder airflow into the south and the true Arctic cold never really reached the far south and any snow was transient in nature and or didn't settle. If the blocking held on and stuck around Greenland or Iceland for a little longer to allow the colder Arctic airflow to sink further south for longer then we could have been in business. Also it is March so no surprise but still nice to see some eventful weather after a month or so of nothingness and looks like early to mid next week we could see another push of colder weather.

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I agree and also this reversal of zonal flow may have been too strong in the sense that it caused the blocking retrogress too north westwards to west of Greenland on Canadian side which allowed milder airflow into the south and the true Arctic cold never really reached the far south and any snow was transient in nature and or didn't settle. If the blocking held on and stuck around Greenland or Iceland for a little longer to allow the colder Arctic airflow to sink further south for longer then we could have been in business. Also it is March so no surprise but still nice to see some eventful weather after a month or so of nothingness and looks like early to mid next week we could see another push of colder weather.

Hope 2nd half to see spring like conditions for the heating reduce usage as it currently £5 higher up to 10th from corresponding last month. Hope Sunday at 13C here with sunshine to have heating free day or use very short time. Next early week charts show clean northerly or NW mean more sunny weather to keep indoor warmer.