Wx charts show cold weather concentrated across the N, reduced in area but still freezing from Scotland across Scandinavia, with some leaking southwards towards the Alps. Perversely the area below zero expands slightly in week 2 but the leak is more towards Poland and Romania and the British Isles closer to norm.

GFS Op - a trough moving in from the Atlantic over the weekend with SW-lies briefly (snow on leading edge?) before the trough moves E develops into twin centres 980mb Wales and Norway Tue 14th with N-lies re-appearing. They don't last and flabby LPs on the Atlantic keep a mostly S-ly flow until the following Tuesday 21st when one LP deepens 990mb Ireland. That deepens, moves E and draws in NE-lies for a few days before slack pressure dominates again from Sat 25th.

ECM - similar to GFS though no sign of a deeper LP on Tue 21st

GEFS - temps up Mon 13th, down Wes 15th, back to norm Fri 17th after which most ens members stay close to seasonal norm but with a good sprinkling of colder runs, almost no warmer ones. Rain present in most ens members until Tue 21st, smaller amounts later. Scotland has similar temp profile though there is a greater proportion of colder runs after the 17th, and also a notable  heavy snow fall 13th/14th which extends S as far as the English Midlands though with decreasing intensity.

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Pretty solidly mild after the 16th for the South on the ECM ensembles.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 

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Pretty solidly mild after the 16th for the South on the ECM ensembles.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 

Yes, looks another win for ECM. Other models backing off any cold scenario. I think its now time to put away the shovels and get out the bikinis 
Feels very warm now after a cold night. The Sun really packs a punch even so early in the season
 

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GFS 06z still insisting on Scotland staying cold out to 25th with marginal snow events.
This version shows warmer weather at last coming north by 26th/27th

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It is a longshot at present but many archive cold Springs from the past have had bitter easterlies erupt out of nowhere .The latest GFS shows a similar set up nearly emerging before energy diverts to Balkans.This spring is definitely old school so far so folly to rule it out.

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UKMO looks interesting
GEM ends with an easterly again but its a hard slog to get there

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Looks like a blink and you miss it mild snap tomorrow into Monday up here. Spring is still on hold and the 12z GFS op run was one of the mildest of the ensemble set in the medium term.

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Looks like a blink and you miss it mild snap tomorrow into Monday up here. Spring is still on hold and the 12z GFS op run was one of the mildest of the ensemble set in the medium term.

MetO forecast for e.g. Edinburgh has a snow and ice warning until 6am and then 11C forecast at midday. Not often you see that combination; any lying snow is going to vanish in hours.

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WX charts - the really freezing weather continues to shrink N-wards, retaining a line across Scotland to the Baltic to N Russia with just a suspicion on something cooler stretching towards the Alps. Several areas in the Med beginning to look warm in week 2. Just about everywhere in Europe getting some rain/snow over the next two weeks; for Britain especially heavy in week 1.

GFS Op - LP running across England now (to 975mb Northumberland Tue 14th) with strong SW-lies before and N-lies after. The next LP slows down and sits over Ireland 1000mb Sun 19th with trough extending E into the Baltic. For the following week Britain is sandwiched between N-S ridge of HP 1030mb on Atlantic and LP 995mb Sweden, cold N-ly for E, mild SW-ly for W, but only a slight shift in pressure centres could alter that significantly. Collapse of HP allows Atlantic LP in, 995mb Wales Mon 27th

ECM - LP 14th further S (Thames estuary) and then the next LP covers more of Britain than just Ireland. Finally the ridge of HP is placed further E, in fact the E side of the N Sea, so Britain is under the influence of a distant but large Atlantic LP with S-lies (returning polar air, not tropical, so still cool).

GEFS - after the mild blip on Mon 13th, back in the freezer for a few days, then mean near norm (cooler in the N esp at first) from Fri 17th onwards though op and control are quite cold around Wed 22nd. Rain a little and often throughout (extra pptn as heavy snow in Scotland Tue 14th)

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This past week has demonstrated what is possible but difficult to achieve these days. I would contend the synoptics were the most favourable for years to have deep widespread snowfall and blizzards Countrywide. For example there was lowland non-settling snow here which fell for several hours as there was Countrywide. On other days I could see the heavy rain was just a degree or two off falling as snow as DPs were often quite low. Bearing in mind some isolated places with altitude got their deepest snowfall for years. e.g Sheffield, where I gather parts of the city are as high as 500m. It is annoying that when all the models unravel they always seem to end up that 1-2C degree too high however they get there! Of course it is no coincidence that happens to be the exact amount of temperature rise as caused by AGW so we should not be surprised that Sheffield type events were more common in lowland Britain last century.

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When I was at university in Sheffield I don’t remember parts of the city being at 500m. I would imagine the parts you refer to might technically be within the boundaries of the wider city area, but are actually the moors or the peaks. The moors and peaks are indeed very high and prone to good snow in conditions that are less favourable to lower altitudes. The vast majority of folk in Sheffield, however, live far below 500m. Moreover, I saw pictures from places like Dronfield, which as at a modest (compared to 500m) altitude of 150m. These pictures showed very deep snow! Hmmmmm

Seems to be a very fluid period of model watching and never mild the further north you go.

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Pretty solidly mild after the 16th for the South on the ECM ensembles.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 

A bit of a stand off now between the ECM and GFS suites with the GFS giving a pronounced colder signal particularly around 22cnd and 25th.  Either way with a generally unsettled look, there does not seem to be much 'lamb' in March as we continue through the month.

When I was at university in Sheffield I don’t remember parts of the city being at 500m. I would imagine the parts you refer to might technically be within the boundaries of the wider city area, but are actually the moors or the peaks. The moors and peaks are indeed very high and prone to good snow in conditions that are less favourable to lower altitudes. The vast majority of folk in Sheffield, however, live far below 500m. Moreover, I saw pictures from places like Dronfield, which as at a modest (compared to 500m) altitude of 150m. These pictures showed very deep snow! Hmmmmm

Seems to be a very fluid period of model watching and never mild the further north you go.

Yes - I did just get that height from Google which seemed a bit high to me as well although it just said "parts of the City reach.....".  Nevertheless 150m is still 1.5C drop and that was all it took in many areas.

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When I was at university in Sheffield I don’t remember parts of the city being at 500m. I would imagine the parts you refer to might technically be within the boundaries of the wider city area, but are actually the moors or the peaks. The moors and peaks are indeed very high and prone to good snow in conditions that are less favourable to lower altitudes. The vast majority of folk in Sheffield, however, live far below 500m. Moreover, I saw pictures from places like Dronfield, which as at a modest (compared to 500m) altitude of 150m. These pictures showed very deep snow! Hmmmmm

Seems to be a very fluid period of model watching and never mild the further north you go.

I went to Sheffield too and none of the built-up city itself is anything like 500m. I lived in one of the highest parts, Crosspool, and my house was around 230m asl. 
Lodge Moor on the western fringes reaches about 290m which I think is the highest properly built-up area. 

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A beautiful end to the 0Z GFS. High pressure just to the east, dragging up southerly winds and the first 20°C of the year.


BANK!

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WX temp charts show cold weather across the far north of Europe including Scotland for week 1 but there is a progressive shrinkage  in week 2 with temps generally looking mild from S Britain to the Black Sea, even the Alps no longer below zero. Band of pptn from Britain to the Baltic week 1, pulling back to the Atlantic but still affecting Britain to some extent in week 2. Separate patch in Turkey.

GFS Op - current LP near Britain moving away bit not before delivering a N-blast (one day only!) on Tue; the following week dominated by Atlantic LP with SW-lies before it moves to N England1000mb Sun 19th. New LP on Atlantic with more Sw-lies but standing off and as HP arises 1030mb Tue 28th English Channel winds go round into the S.

ECM - LP moves in and affects Scotland on the 18th, rather than the 19th, and after that the Atlantic LP doesn't stand off but pushes troughs E-ward from its centre affecting Britain at least until Thu 23rd with more W-lies rather than SW-lies.

GEFS - sharp dip in temp Tue/Wed 14th/15th then mean back to near norm; suggestion of milder at first but cooler around Wed 22nd (a wide range of ens members to choose from but a cluster of colder runs depress the average). After some heavy  snow in the N early this week, both 13th and 17th, small amounts of rain in most places throughout.

 

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I went to Sheffield too and none of the built-up city itself is anything like 500m. I lived in one of the highest parts, Crosspool, and my house was around 230m asl. 
Lodge Moor on the western fringes reaches about 290m which I think is the highest properly built-up area. 

Indeed, it's one of those quasi myths about the city because it has incredibly widely drawn local authority boundaries which include a fair slice of the Peak District, but are virtually uninhabited rural moorland. 

See also: "Sheffield has more trees and open space than any other UK city".

That all said, it does have some built up districts that are uncommonly high in big-city terms – you mention some such examples above. 

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A beautiful end to the 0Z GFS. High pressure just to the east, dragging up southerly winds and the first 20°C of the year.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

BANK!

Indeed! 

March – comes in like a lion, goes out like a lamb?
 

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This past week has demonstrated what is possible but difficult to achieve these days. I would contend the synoptics were the most favourable for years to have deep widespread snowfall and blizzards Countrywide. For example there was lowland non-settling snow here which fell for several hours as there was Countrywide. On other days I could see the heavy rain was just a degree or two off falling as snow as DPs were often quite low. Bearing in mind some isolated places with altitude got their deepest snowfall for years. e.g Sheffield, where I gather parts of the city are as high as 500m. It is annoying that when all the models unravel they always seem to end up that 1-2C degree too high however they get there! Of course it is no coincidence that happens to be the exact amount of temperature rise as caused by AGW so we should not be surprised that Sheffield type events were more common in lowland Britain last century.

You are probably right that it would be less marginal without AGW.  Other factor though is that you need (and especially in March) good solid heavy precipitation.  Some areas of the country are so sheltered (thinking York around here) with less than 600mm per year that they just won't get sustained heavy enough precipitation for a decent snowfall from these type of events.   Towns and cities on the Eastern Pennine upslopes are much helped by the orographic effects. 

Speaking of York,  I wonder if Quantum got any snow?  Some relatives in York sent me a pic of a brief dusting at 5am that melted by 7am, they were as usual very jealous of my pics. 

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You are right about the orographic effects for the eastern slopes of the Pennines. The easterly component to the wind during last weeks event no doubt contributed to the high snowfall totals. Though we managed a good covering here, I couldn't help but be a little jealous of the totals further north!

Similar places, more especially over the trans-Pennine routes, look in line for a covering later tonight as the colder air floods back in. UKV shows the likely areas to see some snowfall in the early hours



Then it is a brisk day tomorrow with some convective precipitation streaming in on that west-northwest wind. Potential for hail, thunder, sleet and snow in the mix you would think. UKV again shows some quite potent showers.



😊




 

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