I think today will be a overcast grim day for many not just in the East . The North Sea is a cloud making machine atm. From tomorrow though hopefully there should be less cloud especially for Central areas, as we get more of a northerly rather than a north easterly.
Fingers crossed. 
 

It is. 

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It's clearly been west is best for the last few weeks as the weather has been stunning here. Not too hot and often with a gin clear blue sky and this looks set to continue. I noticed that the BBC tweeted a list of places without rain and Swansea was top with the last rain falling on 8 May.

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It's been a glorious spell of weather hasn't it?! 
Day after day of sunshine from dawn until dusk and pleasantly warm rather than too hot. Probably the best spell of weather I can remember for years.

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It's been a glorious spell of weather hasn't it?! 
Day after day of sunshine from dawn until dusk and pleasantly warm rather than too hot. Probably the best spell of weather I can remember for years.

Weve had many a recent year just like this.  Starting with 2020 when we were in lock down, May and June were glorious before an extended Thundery breakdown (something im keen to see a repeat of) June 2022 was equally decent.  Prolonged dry sunny spells.

This month has been brilliant for my solar panels.  Exported about 450kwhs

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Look away if you want a cooler summer from the GFS 12z. Spain getting very hot

Look away if you want a cooler summer from the GFS 12z. Spain getting very hot

We need this HP to sod off to let the heat in Spain to reach here, last time the heat in April failed to turn up due to HP blocking it and kept us in cold, wet and dull.

Weve had many a recent year just like this.  Starting with 2020 when we were in lock down, May and June were glorious before an extended Thundery breakdown (something im keen to see a repeat of) June 2022 was equally decent.  Prolonged dry sunny spells.

This month has been brilliant for my solar panels.  Exported about 450kwhs

May, June and just into July 2018 was the daddy of 'west is best'. After that, it was the SE that has the best of it (although still fine here) 

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WX charts show the cool area over Scandinavia and the Baltic States (even freezing in N Norway) pulling away NE-wards, and W Europe becoming warmer in week 2, even hot in France and Spain with England and Ireland also distinctly warm; not so much Scotland. Very dry in week 1 from Britain to Poland, in week 2 this area reduced in size to N Sea to S Baltic with something from the Atlantic approaching Scotland. The  N Med , Alps and Balkans especially, continuing to endure downpours.

GFS Op - HP over Scotland or just to the NW dominating until Fri 9th then withdrawing N-wards and allowing shallow LPs to drift N from France to Wed 14th affecting mainly England. As the HP declines, LP develops S of Iceland, brushing past NW Scotland also Wed 14th to a position NE of Iceland with a large shallow trough extending S over Britain and France. Other LP areas coming and going over the Med and N Russia.

ECM - similar to GFS though the HP moves NW to Greenland rather than an overall decline; a distinction without a difference as far as Britain is affected

GEFS - temps a degree or two above norm to Fri 9th (maybe local exceptions on E coast) with good agreement of ens members; then more spread but most settle on close to norm to Sat 16th. Spots of rain in a few ens members from Wed 7th, more likely but still not common around Tue 13th in the S, two or three days later in Scotland esp the NW

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Pleasant when its sunny this pattern but depressing when cloudy like today. Looks like we have at least 7 to 10 more days of this pattern though. The humid southerlies cant come soon enough. 
 

Each to their own, but not for me thanks! 👎

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Having been stuck inside working all day looking at the sunshine I finally got out for a walk just after 8pm. It was properly chilly by then with a bracing wind under clear skies (which have since clouded over). Time for southerlies please!

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It's been a glorious spell of weather hasn't it?! 
Day after day of sunshine from dawn until dusk and pleasantly warm rather than too hot. Probably the best spell of weather I can remember for years.

Must be fantastic in the Scilly Isles. Pretty grim here in the S.E. from the start of Spring really. Firstly wet and cold and now bone dry, always cloudy am with a bone chilling easterly wind. It does creep up to 19-20C pm for a while before the cloud rolls back in late afternoon though. Bad growing weather, 3 weeks without rain in a very dry strong wind. Can't remember the same HP staying in the identical location for so long in May and June before and no sign of it altering in  the models for the next couple of weeks, at least.

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WX temp charts show the Continent seasonally warming up, with the current cool area over E Europe being replaced by warmth in week 2. But Britain (unlike yesterday) and N Scandinavia remaining no better than average, even cool further north in week 2. Very dry for Britain and N Europe week 1, nowhere quite as dry as this in week 2 but Britain and (separately) W Russia the drier areas. Still wet through the N Med and very wet in week 2 around the Adriatic and Turkey, with a little overspill in the direction of Belgium.

Met O forecast for the central S Coast at least for the next week showing NO change from 90% sunshine, midday 20+/-1 C, strong NE wind.

GFS Op - HP over N Britain and E/NE-lies for the S until about Fri 9th, when it retreats to mid Atlantic with lower pressure (1015mb) from France affecting the S by Mon 12th. After that the influence of the HP increases again, but not enough to prevent light N-lies, through to Fri 16th. The final frame (Sun 18th) shows twin HPs,, one in mid-Atlantic and one in Russia (the latter having been steadily growing for the previous week) and a trough extending S form Iceland to Ireland.

ECM - differs from GFS after Fri 9th when the HP moves NE to near Orkney with more of an E/SE influence

GEFS - continuing a degree or three above average temp to Mon 12th after which the mean declines to norm, perhaps skewed (esp in the N) by a rather cool op & control. Very dry except for a cluster of modest rain events Wed 14th, also in a few ens members before and (in the N & W rather more) after that.

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Must be fantastic in the Scilly Isles. Pretty grim here in the S.E. ......

Just to note that despite the name, Scilly Dave is reporting from Somerset where he now lives.

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That anticyclone is just refusing to budge isn't it? A few days ago it looked as if it was going to start shifting south east and weakening. Now, if anything it is likely to retrogress in the longer term, and to move only slowly in the shorter term. This results in the north-easterly flow persisting and so the current pattern looks set to hold for a week at least. Subtle differences in North Sea cloud and wind direction will make the difference between cold/overcast and mild/sunny. West continues to be best for some time to come.

One point to note is that, in this set up, you can ignore 850Hpa temperatures because surface level temperatures are dominant. The current London 850 temp is at a peak which might not be exceeded for 3 weeks (if you take the GEFS means) but those plagued by the cloud and wind will tell you it feels more like March out there.  

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Just to note that despite the name, Scilly Dave is reporting from Somerset where he now lives.

Sadly yes, i no longer live on the islands. Friends down there do report a fantastic period of weather though. Here's a webcam from my old home island of St Martins 
https://www.stmartinsscilly.co.uk/webcams--videos.html 

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looking at the charts this morning and mid June and STILL seeing -5*C uppers into the british isles.  Quite rare that, potentially a bit of snow for the highest mountains overnight, with frost probably likely in the valleys

A cooler spring and start to Summer than I remember.  Albeit very sunny where I live - countering that cool air.

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Must be fantastic in the Scilly Isles. Pretty grim here in the S.E. from the start of Spring really. Firstly wet and cold and now bone dry, always cloudy am with a bone chilling easterly wind. It does creep up to 19-20C pm for a while before the cloud rolls back in late afternoon though. Bad growing weather, 3 weeks without rain in a very dry strong wind. Can't remember the same HP staying in the identical location for so long in May and June before and no sign of it altering in  the models for the next couple of weeks, at least.

Hear hear.  It's the chilly, nagging, blustery, incessant NE wind that I can't wait to see the end of. It doesn't even drop much overnight, and as soon as the sun gets close to the horizon (if it's shining at all) it gets too chilly to stay in the garden.  But before I turn this into the summer (!!) moaning thread, the GEFS is pretty well flatlining at the same conditions for the next 10 days. Aaargh!

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Must be fantastic in the Scilly Isles. Pretty grim here in the S.E. from the start of Spring really. Firstly wet and cold and now bone dry, always cloudy am with a bone chilling easterly wind. It does creep up to 19-20C pm for a while before the cloud rolls back in late afternoon though. Bad growing weather, 3 weeks without rain in a very dry strong wind. Can't remember the same HP staying in the identical location for so long in May and June before and no sign of it altering in  the models for the next couple of weeks, at least.

Not grim at all in this part of the SE - the sun's been shining most of the day, but the wind from the sea has kept it pleasantly cool.

The bit about bad growing conditions is partially true, due to the lack of rain. Aside from that though everything's shooting up just as it usually does this time of year... the "wild" bits of my garden now look like mini jungles!

It is unusual to see such a prolonged spell of NE'lies, though (especially as we're in the typical "European Monsoon" weeks, where you would expect more mobility than usual, with low pressure and rain being on the menu). I can't help but think what a smashing wintry scene this would have generated back in say late January, but I can't complain... every day like this is a day where it's not getting uncomfortably warm, and a day closer to the end of my least favourite season (summer).

It'll be interesting to see what the next pattern involves. You would suspect a switch to wetter conditions (as it can't get any drier!) - warm, muggy and wet perhaps?

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Looks like a genuinely hot ECM tonight.  It drifts the high east so we pick up a sultry south easterly. 
 

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Looks like a genuinely hot ECM tonight.  It drifts the high east so we pick up a sultry south easterly. 
 

BBC Radio 4 forecast hinting at this, too.

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