WX charts show warm weather widespread over NW Europe, and moving steadily N-wards over Britain in the next 2 weeks. By the end of week 2 the significant cold area is only over N Scandinavia and N Russia plus a tiny patch over the Alps. Dry around the N Sea in week 1 with the persistent band of wet weather across S Europe; in week 2 the dry area is still there but the rain has moved E-wards to the Balkans, and some is appearing near NW Scotland (though not as much as shown yesterday)
GFS Op - HP moves off to Scandinavia by Sun 11th allowing S-ly drift with some LP moving N from France, but by Wed 14th the HP is back over Scotland with E/NE-ly winds back for the rest of the week. From Sun 18th pressure drops over the UK with LP off the Hebrides 995mb Tue 20th and a trough from it over the rest of Britain. That LP moves back into the Atlantic by FRi 23rd with SW-lies for all. Pressure remains low over the continent for much of this period and could affect S England at times.
ECM - similar to GFS to Sun 11th but the HP then stays out to the east, admittedly looking rather flabby, but enough to continue the theme of S-ly drift and shallow LP from France through to Thu 15th. I'm going out now so don't have time to wait for ECM 0z after that, but the 12z from yesterday shows HP spreading back over Britain but centred further S than on GFS thus avoiding E-ly winds.
GEFS - becoming warm or very warm around Sun 11th before slowly decreasing to norm by Fri 23rd with good agreement from ens members. Some rain from time to time, most likely following 11th and then again Mon 19th in S & E, more general in W, very dry in NE Scotland.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl