Goes to show how easy it is to reach hot temps now without a consistent pattern. Think any heat this year might be accompanied by some stormy weather

Indeed the UKV has 31c for Saturday,  Arpege 29c. 
 

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Roll on the warm sunshine and towering thunder clouds.😎⚡

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An interesting take on things on the 12z GFS, with showers and highs widely in the teens for most of us on Saturday. Quite a change from earlier runs, to say the least!

Sunday then has highs in the low to mid 20s for most of the population.

 

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An interesting take on things on the 12z GFS, with showers and highs widely in the teens for most of us on Saturday. Quite a change from earlier runs, to say the least!

Sunday then has highs in the low to mid 20s for most of the population.

 

Even more different is the period around T180. You might as well have chalk and cheese as descriptions. I'm beginning to remember why I gave up model watching!

Low steaming in from the NW to the SW and then combining with a Scandi low (!) to sit over the top of Scotland by T+282. Can't wait for the rest of the run. Suffice to say it's as consistent as a bunch of monkeys entering the start data😀.

Ties in with the comment I referred to earlier on the 'wet' GFS update. Perhaps that's what was showing when GezM posted.

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Even more different is the period around T240. You might as well have chalk and cheese as descriptions. I'm beginning to remember why I gave up model watching!

Yes, that's more of a seasonal chart (the "European monsoon") - I guess the models will be juggling climatology as well as the current blocked setup.

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Yes, that's more of a seasonal chart (the "European monsoon") - I guess the models will be juggling climatology as well as the current blocked setup.

Yeah. Just edited to provide context.

Doesn't tie up with the MetO ten dayer either, but that does show a drop in pressure towards the end of their runs, all be it after a strong rebound in high pressure just beforehand.

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That 12z GFS is UUUG-LEEEEEE

😯

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Indeed the UKV has 31c for Saturday,  Arpege 29c. 
 

Considering how cold it been lately it would be very big change from cold to hot day.  Most likely mid 20s to higher 20's from Saturday onward.

That 12z GFS is UUUG-LEEEEEE

😯

As is the GEM.

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Considering how cold it been lately it would be very big change from cold to hot day.  Most likely mid 20s to higher 20's from Saturday onward.

Cold? 🤣 

The GFS looks very much on its own with cooler conditions at times over the weekend. The other output so far this evening, UKMO, GEM, and ICON, has a much warmer picture (mid to high 20s in places - not here of course!)

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That 12z GFS is UUUG-LEEEEEE

😯

yeah it won't happen though, will be replaced by more high pressure and drought conditions no doubt 

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The ECM 12z has mid to high 20s across a swathe of England on Saturday too (the rest of the run has yet to come out at time of writing):

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/max-temperature-6h/20230610-1800z.html  

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The ECM 12z has mid to high teens across a swathe of England on Saturday too (the rest of the run has yet to come out at time of writing):

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/max-temperature-6h/20230610-1800z.html  

Looks like a large area of 28c in the East ? 
 

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Looks like a large area of 28c in the East ? 
 

Yes you're right. I have no idea why I typed teens, I meant 20s!

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Yes, that's more of a seasonal chart (the "European monsoon") - I guess the models will be juggling climatology as well as the current blocked setup.

Apparently, the southern arm of the Pacific jet is in the process of firing up at the moment after a very prolonged period of lullness. I'm hoping that it will have some knock on effect on the Atlantic pattern down the line, especially if it kick starts a more active Atlantic jet to power through these unending series of unmovable blocking highs we've suffered through over the last 3 or 4 years. 

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Yes you're right. I have no idea why I typed teens, I meant 20s!

The ECM is a very good run in general tonight.  We do eventually get the north easterly back but it doesn't look like a cloudfest as temps remain decent for most. 
 

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Latest UKV run 3pm really going for it max temps Friday to Monday  29c, 31c, 29c, 30c. 

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Latest UKV run 3pm really going for it max temps Friday to Monday  29c, 31c, 29c, 30c. 

Yep. Lurvvvvvely!!!!!

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Cold? 🤣 

Yes seriously very cold 12 to 13 maxes which is nearly 10c below average daily.  Coming out of work tonight to greet the summer smell and warmer so seem the warmer air now moving in earlier with 22C max in Slough so that 3 higher than silly app put 19C today.