LeedsLad123
08 June 2023 00:01:15
Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Cold? 🤣 


You know full well it’s been quite cold in much of the country this past week. East coast stations have had a week straight of 12-15C maximums. Even here it’s felt cool for the past couple of days with only limited sunshine - yesterday saw a high of 16.8C here and that was only briefly in the afternoon, most of the day was around 14C. 

So yes. Definitely cold for June. This current setup is really not good for most of the country and only really benefits the far south and west, that’s why the June CET is currently 0.4C below average.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
08 June 2023 06:44:41
UKV model had its Weetabix this morning Friday to Monday max temps. 29c, 33c, 30c, 32c. 

Be amazed if it's not over doing it but you never know.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
08 June 2023 07:00:27
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

UKV model had its Weetabix this morning Friday to Monday max temps. 29c, 33c, 30c, 32c. 

Be amazed if it's not over doing it but you never know.


I highly doubt we'd get those sort of temperatures, BBC weather was saying an outside chance of hitting 30c so I would expect somewhere in the SE to max out at around 29c.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
DEW
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08 June 2023 07:07:48
According to WX, the warmth over NW Europe including Britain continues through into week 2, with Denmark and surrounding areas becoming a significant hot spot. In contrast, the cool area over N Russia has never gone away and in week 2 extends much further, down to N Ukraine. Dry in week 1 from N Sea to Baltic with that persistent band of wet weather across S Europe, the latter tilting from a SW -NE orientation (i.e. Spain to Romania with an extension to Poland) to a NW-SE orientation (i.e. France and SW Britain to Greece). More rain also in W Russia.

GFS Op - the current HP over Britain moves E-wards to Estonia 1030mb Mon 12th with a S-ly drift for Britain which is also affected by LP from France. The HP moves back again, to Shetland 1030mb Thu 15th and the NE-lies are also back! However it fades and moves further N with most of Britain under slack LP of continental origin (not so slack locally, 1010mb Brittany Wed 21st). The generally low pressure stays around, esp in the S, though the final frame Sat 24th shows some development of the Azores HP.

ECM - Like GFS at first, but when the HP moves back it goes further S & W, somewhere near Rockall, allowing N-lies to move down the N Sea by Sat 17th

GEFS - very warm Sun 11th, in the S slowly declining to near norm Sun 18th but (unlike yesterday) rising again, slightly, over the following week; in N England and Scotland more generally above norm throughout. Some rain in most ens members around the 11th*, the east not seeing much of this, spits and spots after that in the S throughout, rather more in the N & W.

* the MetO forecast is for very localised showers, many areas missing them. but there is a major cluster in the Welsh borders on Sat evening. BBC Meteo group links this area in a line all the way down to the SE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
08 June 2023 09:06:01
Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

I highly doubt we'd get those sort of temperatures, BBC weather was saying an outside chance of hitting 30c so I would expect somewhere in the SE to max out at around 29c.



Indeed I think it does tend to over do things some what. Think it did last Summer as well. Most other models going for 28c ish Saturday.  Tuesday aswell could be another warm day 28/29c.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Super Cell
08 June 2023 09:22:15
Possibly predictably GFS has completely backed away from last night's transformation, with most of the threat of rain coming from incursions of low pressure from France. Overall a much less progressive solution and at first glance a warm and large calm one overall.
Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
Saint Snow
08 June 2023 10:04:29
Originally Posted by: Super Cell 

Possibly predictably GFS has completely backed away from last night's transformation, with most of the threat of rain coming from incursions of low pressure from France. Overall a much less progressive solution and at first glance a warm and large calm one overall.




Splendid.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
NMA
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08 June 2023 10:13:35
Originally Posted by: Super Cell 

Possibly predictably GFS has completely backed away from last night's transformation, with most of the threat of rain coming from incursions of low pressure from France. Overall a much less progressive solution and at first glance a warm and large calm one overall.



I'm happy with the warm but I'd like some wet as well, not all at once but overnight and spread out for a few weeks.
Oh and a last wish for this post, a ceasefire on the dessicating wind front.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Saint Snow
08 June 2023 10:15:33
Originally Posted by: NMA 

I'm happy with the warm but I'd like some wet as well, not all at once but overnight and spread out for a few weeks.
Oh and a last wish for this post, a ceasefire on the dessicating wind front.




Just made similar points in the drought thread - especially about the very drying wind.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
08 June 2023 16:36:15
Originally Posted by: NMA 

I'm happy with the warm but I'd like some wet as well, not all at once but overnight and spread out for a few weeks.
Oh and a last wish for this post, a ceasefire on the dessicating wind front.


Dessicating? Dew points don't seem that low, all things considered - not like we saw last year in July, for example, which really was dessicating.

I'm intrigued as to how Saturday is going to play out. GFS is rock solid on masses of cloud (enough to produce a UV index of 2 at 1PM down here, for example), with a steady breeze off the sea - and 25C as a result. ECM is even more absurd, showing 27C with similar conditions.

The Met Office automated forecast is for clear blue skies, a similar steady breeze and a high of only 21C.

It's unusual to see such disparities at only a day and a half out... and to not know whether it'll be a warmer version of what we have now, or an overcast, muggy, gloomy day.

Further inland, e.g. Reading, it's the other way round: the Met Office forecast is 28C, the GFS offers 24C. I really can't imagine a scenario where in a cloudy setup a coastal area with an onshore breeze would be warmer than one well inland, but we'll see, we'll see...
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
08 June 2023 17:02:05
Saved for posterity - spot the 1025hPa isobar!
(The technical explanation is that the heat over land is lowering pressure fractionally, it just happens to cross the 1025hPa mark and hence you get that lovely UK-shaped outline!)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/9572/gfs_0_192atd1.png 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Leysdown, north Kent
dagspot
08 June 2023 20:01:45
lots overdid it temps wise even this week. Was previously programmed 21-24dc and we barely scraped 19dc with a nip on an easterly brisk breeze. 30dc over weekend ambitious and I was surprised to see Amber warnings
Neilston 600ft ASL
ozone_aurora
08 June 2023 20:26:09
Originally Posted by: Retron 

Saved for posterity - spot the 1025hPa isobar!
(The technical explanation is that the heat over land is lowering pressure fractionally, it just happens to cross the 1025hPa mark and hence you get that lovely UK-shaped outline!)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/9572/gfs_0_192atd1.png 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page


Yes, that is our little heat low, not as pronounced as Iberian heat low or especially Middle Eastern heat low, but still a heat low, one of many different types of depressions. 🙂
White Meadows
08 June 2023 22:07:54
A lot of hyperbole in the media at the moment. It seems Met office has reduced the temps criteria for Amber warnings, almost media agency style to grab headlines. It used to take 35 degrees C to trigger Ambers. Now it seems less than 30 is enough. 
picturesareme
09 June 2023 01:52:41
So met going for 27C today here. Now going that pretty much every day for the past fortnight had been at least 2C warmer I wouldn't be surprised for a 30C here 😜 
Bolty
09 June 2023 02:38:29
Every day this week the Met Office have added a degree to this weekend's forecast. It was 25°C at the beginning of the week for Saturday, now its been increased to 28°C. I usually also find they tend to be undercooked by a degree or two, so maybe an off-chance of 30°C in Manchester?
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Caz
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09 June 2023 04:54:31
Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Every day this week the Met Office have added a degree to this weekend's forecast. It was 25°C at the beginning of the week for Saturday, now it’s been increased to 28°C. I usually also find they tend to be undercooked by a degree or two, so maybe an off-chance of 30°C in Manchester?

Met Office temp has increased the same for us. They now have 30c here for Saturday. 
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Jiries
09 June 2023 04:56:32
Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Every day this week the Met Office have added a degree to this weekend's forecast. It was 25°C at the beginning of the week for Saturday, now its been increased to 28°C. I usually also find they tend to be undercooked by a degree or two, so maybe an off-chance of 30°C in Manchester?



Yes same here 28C tomorrow but today another problem is again cloudy and still gale force winds so lost chance to be warm day already. Need proper sunrise tomorrow to get to 28C or 30C since some charts shown 30C spots.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 June 2023 06:19:35
3am UKV has at least 31c every day Saturday to Tuesday.  Tuesday being the 13th June the only day ever in Summer not to reach 30c .

Arpege has 29c Saturday , 28c Sunday,  30c Monday 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
LeedsLad123
09 June 2023 06:32:39
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

3am UKV has at least 31c every day Saturday to Tuesday.  Tuesday being the 13th June the only day ever in Summer not to reach 30c .

Arpege has 29c Saturday , 28c Sunday,  30c Monday 


Yes UKV shows 30/31C here. Probably the hottest run yet. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
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