Dessicating? Dew points don't seem that low, all things considered - not like we saw last year in July, for example, which really was dessicating.

I'm intrigued as to how Saturday is going to play out. GFS is rock solid on masses of cloud (enough to produce a UV index of 2 at 1PM down here, for example), with a steady breeze off the sea - and 25C as a result. ECM is even more absurd, showing 27C with similar conditions.

The Met Office automated forecast is for clear blue skies, a similar steady breeze and a high of only 21C.

It's unusual to see such disparities at only a day and a half out... and to not know whether it'll be a warmer version of what we have now, or an overcast, muggy, gloomy day.

Further inland, e.g. Reading, it's the other way round: the Met Office forecast is 28C, the GFS offers 24C. I really can't imagine a scenario where in a cloudy setup a coastal area with an onshore breeze would be warmer than one well inland, but we'll see, we'll see...

By desiccating I mean the way the almost constant winds from the NE force vegetation to suck up water in the soil exacerbating the drying effect. Enhanced transpiration. Combined with sunrise to sunset sunshine for the past couple of weeks means soil moisture deficits must be significant.  Follow me into my garden where the pots need watering a couple of times a day and the grass is now light brown on the shallow soil. You see what I mean?

We haven't had the Jirian gale force winds though. 

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Yes UKV shows 30/31C here. Probably the hottest run yet. 

It has 29c in the Dorset/Hampshire area today a good test on how accurate its going to be . 

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WX charts show warmth well established across NW Europe in week 1, additionally spreading east to displace the cool conditions in W Russia by week 2. Something a little cooler spreads down the N Sea to NE Britain in week 2 after sharing continental warmth in week 1. Rain still concentrated in S Europe in a band from S France - Balkans - SE Poland.

GFS Op - The disturbed spell forecast for the weekend, with S winds and LP drifting up from France, looks short-lived as HP returns from the Baltic to sit near N Scotland through to Mon 19th (some light NE-lies down the N Sea). Then something of a collapse with shallow LP moving up from the south for England; after that HP establishes over Norway Sun 25th with continental LP continuing to affect S England.

ECM - similar to GFS

GEFS - warm/hot to Thu 15th after which temps close to or a little above norm; some rain around Mon 12th (but not in the NE) then very little in S & E until it shows up there in some ens members after Mon 19th. More of a showery pattern throughout for N & W.

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Looks like I've time my return to the UK almost perfectly. 😀That makes a change! 

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Signs of major heat over Iberia in about 9 days time. Both GFS and ECM have it but then show it dissipating in different directions, neither of them UK bound. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this in days to come. It often takes a few stages for major heat to advect to the continent from Iberia, to Southern France, to Northern France and then over the Channel. It can fail at any of these stages and then reload or in worst cases never return. 

Of course at this time of the year, the near continent has strong enough sunshine to generate its own heat although never as extreme as the Iberian version. 

 

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Looking like a pretty good spell of summer weather on the way. This weekend's unsettled interlude doesn't look like breaking down the summery conditions, instead we could be looking at a return to something a bit more similar to the last few days but warmer - however with an easterly flow probably still keeping things cool and cloudy down the east coast.

App showing wall to wall sunshine for Hampshire from Tuesday after a showery Monday, with temps gradually declining from high 20s to mid 20s by next weekend.

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Looking like a pretty good spell of summer weather on the way. This weekend's unsettled interlude doesn't look like breaking down the summery conditions, instead we could be looking at a return to something a bit more similar to the last few days but warmer - however with an easterly flow probably still keeping things cool and cloudy down the east coast.

App showing wall to wall sunshine for Hampshire from Tuesday after a showery Monday, with temps gradually declining from high 20s to mid 20s by next weekend.

You mean a continuation of the good spell of summer weather Hampshire has been enjoying for the past couple of weeks? It's been almost wall to wall sunshine that entire time.

Looking like a pretty good spell of summer weather on the way. This weekend's unsettled interlude doesn't look like breaking down the summery conditions, instead we could be looking at a return to something a bit more similar to the last few days but warmer - however with an easterly flow probably still keeping things cool and cloudy down the east coast.

App showing wall to wall sunshine for Hampshire from Tuesday after a showery Monday, with temps gradually declining from high 20s to mid 20s by next weekend.

First time the apps for my area also full sunshine daily next week and temperatures 25-26C so prefer that set-up than recently that often bring weeks of cool cloudy days then a few hours heat spike rubbish follow by cool cloudy nonsense..  Typical 90's summer set-up with lot of sunshine and warm summery temperatures.   With the HP next week should be good for star gazers and seeing twilight all the way at clear night skies toward summer longest day.

Almost identical to how the thundery spell of 2020 came about, was initially forecast as being a thundery friday, maybe a thundery Saturday too, ended up being a thunder 6 or 7 days.

I can see the same thing shaping up.  So long as we are tapping into the CAPE and heat of the continent, i can see the charts squeezing a few more days out of this thundery spell.  Im amazed its so similar for timing and development.

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Almost identical to how the thundery spell of 2020 came about, was initially forecast as being a thundery friday, maybe a thundery Saturday too, ended up being a thunder 6 or 7 days.

I can see the same thing shaping up.  So long as we are tapping into the CAPE and heat of the continent, i can see the charts squeezing a few more days out of this thundery spell.  Im amazed its so similar for timing and development.

It would be and very welcome too (IMBY). 

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It has 29c in the Dorset/Hampshire area today a good test on how accurate its going to be . 

Well Hurn in Dorset is currently 28.3c so not to shabby from UKV. Only model that went that high today. 
 

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It reached that here too. The thermometer says 27C and it feels warm even hot with higher humidity than recent weeks.

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Second consecutive GFS run showing a marked change to Atlantic driven muck from back end of next week.
Unsettled signals for second half of June are growing.

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Well Hurn in Dorset is currently 28.3c so not to shabby from UKV. Only model that went that high today. 
 

And 28.6C here too. 

Second consecutive GFS run showing a marked change to Atlantic driven muck from back end of next week.
Unsettled signals for second half of June are growing.

No sign of any breakdown on UKMO or GEM though. 
Is GFS behaving as it usually does and bringing the Atlantic back too quickly.

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No sign of any breakdown on UKMO or GEM though. 
Is GFS behaving as it usually does and bringing the Atlantic back too quickly.

GFS Ops have been complete drivel recently.  2 days ago it had 17c max for London for tomorrow.  

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GFS Ops have been complete drivel recently.  2 days ago it had 17c max for London for tomorrow.  

  Better get rid of it, used to like it before but not anymore due to wrong daily results and silly charts that never happen.  17C tomorrow that nearly 13C wrong from other charts showing high 20's and possible 30C tomorrow.

Latest Arpege has joined the 30c club, 4 days in a row Saturday to Tuesday. 
 

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Still quite a difference between GFS and UKV for tomorrow with the later going for 31c in lowland Yorkshire , think that is overestimating though. 

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Still quite a difference between GFS and UKV for tomorrow with the later going for 31c in lowland Yorkshire , think that is overestimating though. 

The Met are forecasting 28C for Leeds and experience tells me their automated forecasts usually underestimate temperatures on hot days, so I certainly think there’s a chance of reaching 30C here tomorrow - UKV was spot on today. But time will tell. 

The GFS 12z run was showing 24C as the highest temperature nationwide today, yet it reached 29C in Bournemouth and 27C in London. It’s severely underestimating temperatures for some reason so I’m taking no notice of it. 

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