AROME as usuall has nailed this storm formation.

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UKV 15z also 30c every day until Wednesday.  Only 29c Thursday though. 😁

Really hoping for 13th June to complete the missing puzzle so high chance to achieve it.

Really hoping for 13th June to complete the missing puzzle so high chance to achieve it.

Yes I think there is a great chance this year.
 

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It's amazing how easily 30C is reached these days. 

Indeed.
From a standing start the weather now seems to have the acceleration of an EV.

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WX charts; week 1 NW Europe incl Britain and much of Scandinavia hot, but a cooler patch around the Alps, and much of Russia rather cold for the time of year. Week 2 much the same, a little cooler for N Britain but the Alpine patch shrinking. For rainfall, week 1 continuing very wet in the Balkans and the Black Sea area, very dry across N Sea and Scandinavia, a little rain for W Scotland. Week 2, Britain becoming wet and this linking through the Alps to the Balkans (it just doesn't give up there). Dry-ish in Scandinavia.

GFS Op - HP over Scandinavia with weak ridge to Britain (mostly the N) for this week, declining Mon 19th as LP near Cornwall 1005mb comes and goes across Britain for the following week, with an indeterminate balance between shallow LP on Atlantic and weak HP in the Baltic.

ECM - similar to GFS, the LP over Ireland rather than Cornwall

GEFS - temps declining from v. warm now to near norm Fri 16th (less of a dip in the N) followed by a return of warmth peaking Tue 20th before the mean returns to norm though usual variation in ens members by this time. Rain in the next couple of days possible, then mainly dry esp in S & E until until Tue 20th when rain becoming frequent in many ens members though not all.

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Maybe signs of more unsettled weather in the output in a weeks times with some useful rain/thunder and a little cooler with time to.

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Another day another date record 31.2c at Heathrow beating 31.1c in Cambridge way back in 1900. 

Next 3 days all look beatable including the 29.2c for the 13th.
 

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Another day another date record 31.2c at Heathrow beating 31.1c in Cambridge way back in 1900. 

Next 3 days all look beatable including the 29.2c for the 13th.
 

Countryfile forecast for the 13th was for a max of 29C with an outside chance of 30C somewhere S of London

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Countryfile forecast for the 13th was for a max of 29C with an outside chance of 30C somewhere S of London

Both Arpege and UKV have 30c for Tuesday.  So a great chance this year.
 

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Another day another date record 31.2c at Heathrow beating 31.1c in Cambridge way back in 1900. 

Next 3 days all look beatable including the 29.2c for the 13th.
 

Kew looks like the hot spot with 32.0C today, so comfortably above the old date record. But not quite the hottest day of the year.
Still, 32C used to be exceptional heat and now we can reach it in a bog standard set-up after a chilly week, with 850s barely into the teens. It almost feels like the sun has got stronger, but I assume that is not the case.

A quick look at GFS shows another mini plume towards the end of the run on the op, but that is some way out of line. Generally the pack seems pretty tight with somewhat cooler and less settled conditions likely.

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WX charts for week 1 show very warm weather spread from France and Britain all the way up to the Gulf of Bothnia and hot through the Mediterranean but with something cooler around the Danube basin in between. In week 2 virtually the whole of continental W Europe becomes hot, but cooler weather pushes down from the north restricting warmth in Britain and Scandinavia only to their southern parts. Mainly dry from N Sea to W Russia in week 1, heavy rain from Greece to Romania and a little for Atlantic coasts. In week 2, rain well distributed across all of Europe except Spain. Locally, Ireland, Wales and NW Britain can expect significant amounts.

BBC 5-day farmers' forecast hinting at a break in the weather at the end of the 5-day period; Glastonbury starts on 21st so traditional mud may well be available.

GFS Op - a broad ridge of HP from Scandinavia to N Britain persists to Fri 16th after which a general switch to shallow LP over most of N Europe becoming localised 1000mb Bristol Channel Wed 21st followed by a deeper LP 985mb Sun 25th off NW Ireland with brisk SW-lies, while pressure rises over France and Germany. This HP is affecting Britain by Wed 28th while LP dragging cooler air behind moves S over Finland

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP Wed 21st covers a larger area and drifts NE-wards without bringing in a new atlantic LP

GEFS - temps back down to norm or a couple of degrees above in S and staying there from Fri 16th; in the N mean temp stays 3 or 4C above norm (contrast WX above). Mostly dry to Mon 19th (Fri 17th in the NW) after which significant rain in many ens members esp in W. 

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Models looking pretty steamy this morning.  Particularly ECM which is setting up a very hot pattern by day 10. 

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Models looking pretty steamy this morning.  Particularly ECM which is setting up a very hot pattern by day 10. 

Potentially quite a lot of rain in western parts before that though. Both ECM and GFS are going for a significant breakdown early next week. Eastern areas may well stay much drier. 

Late June is looking very interesting on the GFS Op run with major heat drifting north from Iberia. 

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Potentially quite a lot of rain in western parts before that though. Both ECM and GFS are going for a significant breakdown early next week. Eastern areas may well stay much drier. 

Late June is looking very interesting on the GFS Op run with major heat drifting north from Iberia. 

Indeed.

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Indeed.

Nessie might be safe for now

Models looking pretty steamy this morning.  Particularly ECM which is setting up a very hot pattern by day 10. 

Yeah, but very thundery!!!!⛈

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_186_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_210_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

For example.

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Models looking pretty steamy this morning.  Particularly ECM which is setting up a very hot pattern by day 10. 

By then we will have had six weeks of dry weather in the East and South East although I imagine everywhere will be desperate for rain by then.

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By then we will have had six weeks of dry weather in the East and South East although I imagine everywhere will be desperate for rain by then.

Yes the up coming thundery spell in about a week looks quite hit and miss in the East. After that hints of low pressure stalling again and re- establishing to our west/south west. If that happens it's only going to get hotter. 
 

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Hmm. Interesting development on the GFS 12Z which makes a lot less of the low out west and in fact after trying to get in over the UK is forced back west into the Atlantic, setting up a plume type scenario from the south.
One to watch, but any relaxation of the heat may be very shortlived. 

UKMO 12z is broadly similar, the low approaches from the west, fills, then backs west again, drawing up a very warm air mass.

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Yes the up coming thundery spell in about a week looks quite hit and miss in the East. After that hints of low pressure stalling again and re- establishing to our west/south west. If that happens it's only going to get hotter. 
 

In line with John Hammond's thoughts regarding a warm, thundery outlook after a quitter spell mid week and slightly fresher.

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