I'm already concerned at the lack of rain. IMBY the autumn offered some relief after the bone dry spring and we had a wet first half of Jan but now here we are at the start of Feb and there has been barely a drop in 3 weeks with none forecast for the week ahead.
Can already hear the "2 dry winters and a dry summer back to back " story being prepared by the water companies



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Not in Sussex, all reservoirs full and chalk aquifer overflowing, wettest since 2014

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I very much doubt that it was more than the usual variation. We only noticed it because a shift of a few hundred miles in an anticyclone made a lot of difference to UK weather. 

i’m sure it happens all the time, just not in locations we are focusing on. And I’m equally sure the GFS boffins aren’t too worried about what the model is showing for a little island on the other side of the Atlantic. 

Absolutely, and that was why I stated 'occurences of this nature'.  As you pointed out, occurrences such as this could involve for example a cluster of outliers pinpointing a slacker vortex that is at the same time a few hundred miles further south.  The outcome for our location may well  be quite a similar westerly type of set up for either scenario and we would not give a hoot anyway.  The point that may or may have been of interest to the boffins in this case was not an errant cluster or that it affected the UK, [color=var(--bs-body-color)]but that the op agreed with the cluster over quite a few runs.  Maybe that does happen quite often, but in my 'narrow lensed' way of looking at the models I cannot remember that happening before![/color]

The gfs strat charts have consistently been modelling a reversal at 10hpa around the 15-16th of Feb through to the end of the run.  For the first time on the 12z run they showed a split taking place from t300 hours to the  end of the run. This already imprinting on the lower levels at said time frame. If ( love that word) this is being modelled correctly  then it suggests to me anyway that we could very well see a QTR before the end of the month. Plenty of time to see still to see some proper winter weather. 

The 12z ECM and its idea of a windy zonal set up by this time next week can go in the bin. 🤣 GFS at least holds onto the idea of predominantly benign and even Spring-like conditions as far as the eye can see, but I'm sure the 18z run may have something to say to that.

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The gfs strat charts have consistently been modelling a reversal at 10hpa around the 15-16th of Feb through to the end of the run.  For the first time on the 12z run they showed a split taking place from t300 hours to the  end of the run. This already imprinting on the lower levels at said time frame. If ( love that word) this is being modelled correctly  then it suggests to me anyway that we could very well see a QTR before the end of the month. Plenty of time to see still to see some proper winter weather. 

QTR? 🤔

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QTR? 🤔

One of those pseudo-acronyms, in this case a quick tropospheric response I would guess.

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Late GFS op run looks like it could set up late Feb cold spell 

One of those pseudo-acronyms, in this case a quick tropospheric response I would guess.

Yes - that SSW, leading to PVR - LFeb, assuming QTR, & favourable MJO, to ensure CETs sub-30yr-av, leading to sub328 DAM over S-UK, and MSE over MBY... LOL 

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Hoping the models are getting set for the default summer setup - would love some warmer weather now

Yes - that SSW, leading to PVR - LFeb, assuming QTR, & favourable MJO, to ensure CETs sub-30yr-av, leading to sub328 DAM over S-UK, and MSE over MBY... LOL 

WTF? QED.

For what it's worth, CFS still keen on HLB between +400 and +460 😀

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A quick look at the bookmarked GEFS chart shows a few colder stragglers starting to reappear in the longer term. 

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SSW warming.

- I do not usually care much about these, but something has piqued my interest.
- Firstly I'm not interested in how hot it is at the north pole, 10hpa temps are for show, but the vortex is what really matters. What does the stratospheric vortex look like?
- It is first displaced well to the south:
with the centre of the vortex over Scandi.
- Then it is almost completely destroyed with winds easterly from the pole to the temperate latitudes. The vortex looks more like a trough at this point.

- Now, why do we care? The reason this might be important is that these winds can downwell into the troposphere. Sometimes in an SSW you still have westerly winds over the atlantic region, and we are all too fully aware of mild -Ve AO dominated patterns. This, though, this is promising. Even  during the displacement phase the westerly winds over the atlantic are weak, and look more northerly over the UK. If this downwells it would create a cold pattern.

So yes, for the first time in several years I have made a SSW post because I actually think there might be something substantive to it now.

 

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Who's up for Spring 17c/18c on the GFS 6z. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=297&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
 

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Who's up for Spring 17c/18c on the GFS 6z. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=297&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
 

Count me in as long it full clear sunny skies for heating free days indoors.   Today for eg 8C average Feb day after -4C min with gin clear skies give indoor temps rising to 19C first time.  If going to be 16-17C then I would expect 22-23C inside and no heating for few days at least.

Who's up for Spring 17c/18c on the GFS 6z. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=297&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
 

Yes please, I want to get back on the golf course

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as we talk of spring.....todays update

"with a small but increasing chance of colder conditions as we move through the period.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 6 Feb 202

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Looks like the Met are on with the SSW.

Of course how it affects our weather later in Feb who knows....

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Looks like the Met are on with the SSW.

Of course how it affects our weather later in Feb who knows....

yea given the 2nd warming will not take place until middle of February then I'll expect the cold (if we get it!) To come end of February into March and for the fascinating period of model watching as we head towards mid month in Just over a weeks time we will see more interesting runs. But until then . It's a snooze fest'. 😴 

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yea given the 2nd warming will not take place until middle of February then I'll expect the cold (if we get it!) To come end of February into March and for the fascinating period of model watching as we head towards mid month in Just over a weeks time we will see more interesting runs. But until then . It's a snooze fest'. 😴 

Best guess it look at the E Med and Greece charts because that tell you if they will get warmer from mid Feb then we get the cold air here but since they cop the cold and snow this week we end up getting milder this coming week.   SSW can effect the E Med too and if they going to get another cold shot after mid Feb then we know the answer for the UK.

Another clue is Toronto going to be milder with low single plus digit, no severe cold over parts of Canada I guess.

Best guess it look at the E Med and Greece charts because that tell you if they will get warmer from mid Feb then we get the cold air here but since they cop the cold and snow this week we end up getting milder this coming week.   SSW can effect the E Med too and if they going to get another cold shot after mid Feb then we know the answer for the UK.

Another clue is Toronto going to be milder with low single plus digit, no severe cold over parts of Canada I guess.

Yeah as per last winter 21/2022 - cold air goes to Greece and Turkey as ever!
Good news with the ECMWF zonal mean wind forecast for 10hpa - This is quite a reversal showing now!

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