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Retron
07 February 2023 13:34:41

Most forget 2018 had 2, yes 2 BFTE episodes....beginning of march and mid march
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


One was record-breakingly cold aloft, brought -14C to Kent and a few ice days - a true Beast, albeit cruelly cut off in its prime.

The second saw no ice days, wasn't that cold and saw some slush. Less a beast, more a tired old moggy!

Incidentally, the fact it took record-breaking low 1000-500 thickness and 850s to bring a winter wonderland means I won't get excited about prospects for the end of Feb this year... the odds on breaking two records within 5 years are vanishingly small.
Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
07 February 2023 13:42:29

One was record-breakingly cold aloft, brought -14C to Kent and a few ice days - a true Beast, albeit cruelly cut off in its prime.

The second saw no ice days, wasn't that cold and saw some slush. Less a beast, more a tired old moggy!

Incidentally, the fact it took record-breaking low 1000-500 thickness and 850s to bring a winter wonderland means I won't get excited about prospects for the end of Feb this year... the odds on breaking two records within 5 years are vanishingly small.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yes but for some of us (okay me) it was very underwhelming. On the other hand.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2005/cfsr/CFSR_1_2005022106_2.png 
UserPostedImage
This brought feet of snow to my area. Uppers were cold, but not excessively so.

Though I will admit the maximum temps of 3-5C during the day made everything a bit drippy.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
07 February 2023 15:43:15
slowly slowly...

Confidence in the forecast around the turn of the month becomes much lower, and whilst the more likely scenario is one of a continuation of similar conditions experienced through the latter half of February, there is a low probability of some much colder weather developing.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 7 Feb 2023
Berkshire
Saint Snow
07 February 2023 16:06:54

Yes but for some of us (okay me) it was very underwhelming.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 




I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
07 February 2023 16:11:05
Looks potentially spring-like at times this weekend in parts of the UK. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
07 February 2023 16:14:32

I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Yeh but with all due respect, you live in the NW so don't expect to do well during an easterly.

2018 should have delivered, but it was painful watching everywhere else get loads of snow. You've probably done okay this winter, I never get snow during polar maritime outbreaks, but a scandi high should deliver which made 2018 all the more dissapointing.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
07 February 2023 16:23:30

Yeh but with all due respect, you live in the NW so don't expect to do well during an easterly.

2018 should have delivered, but it was painful watching everywhere else get loads of snow. You've probably done okay this winter, I never get snow during polar maritime outbreaks, but a scandi high should deliver which made 2018 all the more dissapointing.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 




I know. That's what  said 😁

We've not done well at all here this winter. A few of 1cm falls and that's it (one coinciding with our flight to Paris, robbing us of most of a day of a long weekend because Manc Airport are penny-pinching arseholes). That fall did at least freeze and stay on the ground for a week - but then it turned depressingly mild for Xmas.

I don't think many did that well out of either cold spell. We went across to Haworth in January, and whilst there was snow from Rochdale upwards (altitude-wise), it was only perhaps 5-7cm even over the tops (and in Haworth, so it did make it to Yorkshire)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
07 February 2023 16:35:18

I know. That's what  said 😁

We've not done well at all here this winter. A few of 1cm falls and that's it (one coinciding with our flight to Paris, robbing us of most of a day of a long weekend because Manc Airport are penny-pinching arseholes). That fall did at least freeze and stay on the ground for a week - but then it turned depressingly mild for Xmas.

I don't think many did that well out of either cold spell. We went across to Haworth in January, and whilst there was snow from Rochdale upwards (altitude-wise), it was only perhaps 5-7cm even over the tops (and in Haworth, so it did make it to Yorkshire)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Look at my sig! The single entry wasn't even snow, I include all wintry precip including ice pellets!

On the plus side there is now a trend towards a bit more amplification. The 12Z is trying to form a siberian high. I mean nowhere near there yet, but maybe 3 upgrades away from something really good?
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
07 February 2023 17:02:39
UserPostedImage
This sort of thing starting to show up now. Again its not that far away from a cold spell, needs a few more upgrades in the right direction.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Jiries
07 February 2023 18:09:42

Looks potentially spring-like at times this weekend in parts of the UK. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Would reckon get to low to mid teens? Today Nuneaton hit 10C from -3 under full sun.  If the same at the weekend if night not that cold then possible no heating day.
Brian Gaze
07 February 2023 18:54:50

Would reckon get to low to mid teens? Today Nuneaton hit 10C from -3 under full sun.  If the same at the weekend if night not tok cold then possible no heating day.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



It felt quite warm this afternoon in the sun.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2023 20:19:09

It felt quite warm this afternoon in the sun.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It did!  I sat with a coffee on my sister’s patio late morning and remarked how warm the sun was!  👍
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Quantum
07 February 2023 23:13:06

Look at my sig! The single entry wasn't even snow, I include all wintry precip including ice pellets!

On the plus side there is now a trend towards a bit more amplification. The 12Z is trying to form a siberian high. I mean nowhere near there yet, but maybe 3 upgrades away from something really good?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



2 upgrades away now...

Is something brewing?
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Matty H
08 February 2023 00:16:19

I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



We usually get tons of the stuff here from sliding lows and fronts butting and stalling into the cold air, as we did twice in 2018

Hopefully absolutely nothing comes of it and we end up with average or above average temps. You can feel the warmth in the sun already now when stood in it. This week has been amazing so far. The finish line is fast approaching for this winter. 
BJBlake
08 February 2023 00:40:49

2 upgrades away now...

Is something brewing?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

There is certainly a southerly push right up into the high arctic - reaching Svalbard, so the raw ingredients are showing signs of coming into the bowl, but the GFS is thus far missing the Magi-mixer, but as you say - a couple of runs more. Is the Euro slug/ Azores high monster, that scourge of the climate changed NW Europe winter, wallowing too deep to shift, and set to spoil the cake?  
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
ballamar
08 February 2023 06:57:31
Not sure if I really want another carrot dangled as it is being again. Of course we all do it’s still winter !!
Brian Gaze
08 February 2023 07:12:19
The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
08 February 2023 07:40:04

The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Not only that but also mostly dry over a large part of the country away from some NWern parts.
speckledjim
08 February 2023 08:29:46

Not only that but also mostly dry over a large part of the country away from some NWern parts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It's been weeks since we've had any meaningful rain, however, our reservoir levels are at 93% (91% this time last year).
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
johncs2016
08 February 2023 08:44:49

The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


UserPostedImage
Meanwhile, here is the latest GFS ensemble chart for here in Edinburgh.

Not looking good for anyone who is looking for some late season cold weather and so given that we are now just three weeks away from the start of the meteorological spring, we might as well say that winter is now over if that verifies (although, you could argue that for some parts of the UK, winter was effectively "over" after that December cold spell which ended just before Christmas).
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
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