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idj20
06 February 2023 22:37:35
Yeah, the 18z GFS can go straight into the bin. Don't want any of that Atlantic driven crap involving deep lows close by and then towards the UK by the 14th onwards. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
The Beast from the East
06 February 2023 23:22:41

Yeah, the 18z GFS can go straight into the bin. Don't want any of that Atlantic driven crap involving deep lows close by and then towards the UK by the 14th onwards. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 


GFS itself needs to be binned. Appalling performance recently
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
06 February 2023 23:59:40

Yeah, the 18z GFS can go straight into the bin. Don't want any of that Atlantic driven crap involving deep lows close by and then towards the UK by the 14th onwards. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 



Tell me about it - last week the BBC and Met etc mentioned about an easterly for the South and south east this week and look how this turned out? anyway so much for that!!
I guess the good thing is that it's dry and the fact we are heading for our first major SSW around middle of month and have some faith that the MJO will be in a more favourable phased for colder weather to develop end of February into MARCH. I anticipate seeing some decent runs 10-14 days time IF the zonal winds do go into reverse which does look likely this time. But until this SSW (if it occurs) as forecasted for past several days between 14th and 18th February - we will just have to put up with nothingness except frost for the south at first. - at least it will be dry!
At least we have the rest of the month to go but time is running out. Best place for snow now is Greece and Turkey. Sorry Brian I have gone OT.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
07 February 2023 00:05:56

Yeah as per last winter 21/2022 - cold air goes to Greece and Turkey as ever!
Good news with the ECMWF zonal mean wind forecast for 10hpa - This is quite a reversal showing now!

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Clear signs the PV will split and zonal winds at 10hpa will reverse around 17/18th February.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ballamar
07 February 2023 07:26:26
Feels like today could be the last decent wintry day with freezing fog, GFS tries to build HP to the east but our friendly euro high prevents decent set up prevailing. Might be early spring is wintry but from March prefer warmer
Rob K
07 February 2023 08:14:36

Feels like today could be the last decent wintry day with freezing fog, GFS tries to build HP to the east but our friendly euro high prevents decent set up prevailing. Might be early spring is wintry but from March prefer warmer

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


I noticed the Daily Star yesterday had a front page screaming about freezing cold easterly weather this week. On closer inspection they were trying desperately to make 7C with overnight lows of -2C sound cold. Isn’t that pretty much bang on average for February?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
07 February 2023 09:09:47

I noticed the Daily Star yesterday had a front page screaming about freezing cold easterly weather this week. On closer inspection they were trying desperately to make 7C with overnight lows of -2C sound cold. Isn’t that pretty much bang on average for February?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


OT, but Carol K was questioned yesterday by the presenters who asked about the deep snow and freezing weather on the way. She totally blanked them and went on to talk about a slight frost.
It beggars belief how the mainstream media continue to get hooked by the lies that continue to be spouted by charlatan 'forecasters' without any examination or redress when they get it totally wrong which they do most of the time. I will continue to call them out.
On topic, and the demise of another winter is being projected across the board. If there was any response to the drop in the mean zonal flow in our area of the NH we should start to see it in the latter stages of the GFS from early next week. I am not going to hold my breath.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2023 10:03:14

Feels like today could be the last decent wintry day with freezing fog, GFS tries to build HP to the east but our friendly euro high prevents decent set up prevailing. Might be early spring is wintry but from March prefer warmer

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



We're now out of Astronomical winter, i.e. the 3 months of the shortest daylight and weakest sunshine. When the sun is out it actually feels pleasant now and I have noticed the first few max temp spikes above 15C on the London GEFS charts. Let's see if this winter has a sting in its tail!

 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ballamar
07 February 2023 10:15:23
GFS shows how small shortwave/low/lobe can prevent straight line WAA to get a chance of winter. Expect this run to end up fairly mild (op run)
Quantum
07 February 2023 10:26:38
What does it actually take to get a decent cold spell in my area. In Yorkshire getting a decent snow cover to last more than a day shouldn't be that hard. I feel like I've been waiting over a decade now.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
westv
07 February 2023 10:30:57

What does it actually take to get a decent cold spell in my area. In Yorkshire getting a decent snow cover to last more than a day shouldn't be that hard. I feel like I've been waiting over a decade now.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


What happened in 2018? I'm sure our snowcover here lasted a number of days back then 
At least it will be mild!
westv
07 February 2023 10:34:00



It beggars belief how the mainstream media continue to get hooked by the lies that continue to be spouted by charlatan 'forecasters' without any examination or redress when they get it totally wrong which they do most of the time. I will continue to call them out.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



"Slightly chiily with overnight frost" will never be a headline.
At least it will be mild!
Quantum
07 February 2023 10:37:18

What happened in 2018? I'm sure our snowcover here lasted a number of days back then 

Originally Posted by: westv 



Was thoroughly dissapointing especially given the setup. Essentially my area was stuck between two regions of vorticity; the showers to the north and the frontal snow to the south; in between there was a bit of a snow drought. I remember a couple of cms on one day, but honestly it was pathetic for a cold spell that delivered crazy -16C uppers to my area. When I was in my later years of secondary school, a snowcover would happen more often than not each year; now its quite normal to get a year without a decent snowcover (>2cm for >1 day) at all. 2018 was thoroughly unmemorable for me, except ironically, I think in the 2nd part of the cold spell when I took a trip down to Devon. By contrast I still have vivid memories of 2005. In fact the whole 2005-2013 period was quite snowy for me. Since then its been terrible, 2021 was okay but only for the novelty of getting quite alot of snow in April and even into May.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
07 February 2023 11:01:47
Basically, high pressure to our SE, low to our NW.

It's become the default pattern.

Sometime the high ridges/migrates over us; other times it retreats and lows/fronts pass over us.

It's a really depressing set-up.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
idj20
07 February 2023 11:09:35
Looking less unsettled with high pressure still having an influence at least over the southern portion of the UK. A Winter without even using the first letter on the named storm table could still be on the cards. Like I've said, I've given up all hopes of ever seeing any real wintry weather so far this season (as in sustained snow and ice) so I'm aiming for the next best thing; an early burst of proper Spring-like warmth and the GFS 6z & GEM 00z runs shows some of that. ECM is less keen with a more maritime-type set up.
Folkestone Harbour. 
The Beast from the East
07 February 2023 11:11:03

We're now out of Astronomical winter, i.e. the 3 months of the shortest daylight and weakest sunshine. When the sun is out it actually feels pleasant now and I have noticed the first few max temp spikes above 15C on the London GEFS charts. Let's see if this winter has a sting in its tail!

 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



I saw my first blasted wasp this morning. Was hoping the frost would kill them all but sadly not, the sun really packing a punch now and feels springlike even if its technically 3C at the moment

Looks like becoming much more unsettled next week but lets hope we can avoid a repeat of last years storms
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
07 February 2023 11:12:30



It's a really depressing set-up.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



That can be applied to all aspects of life in the UK currently
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
07 February 2023 12:23:51

Basically, high pressure to our SE, low to our NW.

It's become the default pattern.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It has always been the default pattern, simply thanks to our location on the planet.
Although there's no denying that the pattern has become stronger in recent decades, as that chart Brian sometimes posts showing the pressure trend over time  in NW Europe illustrates.

Not much of interest in the models of late - the tentative signs of colder runs I noticed a day or two ago have largely vanished. Cool and settled, then slightly less settled, and then warmer and settled looks to be the order of the day for the south.

Gorgeous weather at the moment though. Felt very springlike when I went out for a walk in the sun yesterday, and today is also bright and cloudless after the foggy start.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
07 February 2023 12:46:57
Most forget 2018 had 2, yes 2 BFTE episodes....beginning of march and mid march
 
Berkshire
Gandalf The White
07 February 2023 13:24:27

Basically, high pressure to our SE, low to our NW.

It's become the default pattern.

Sometime the high ridges/migrates over us; other times it retreats and lows/fronts pass over us.

It's a really depressing set-up.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



It is what it is and personally I'm content to have some calm, sunny days and seasonably chilly overnight temperatures.  But things are certainly afoot up in the stratosphere:  the forecast wind pattern shows a continuing reversal across North America and slack winds across NE Canada and a large swathe of the North Atlantic in a couple of weeks' time.  Who knows what that might do to conditions in the troposphere but at least it's something of interest as winter enters its final days.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2023020706/gfsnh-17-360.png?6 

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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