Some signs of it turning colder? Possibly.




No sign of an SSW yet but zonal winds at 10hPa dipping towards the end of the 16 day period.

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Quite a snowy end to the ECM this morning.  Maybe some interest for coldies on the way.


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20230118-0000z.html 
 

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WX temp charts show some very cold conditions bumbling around over S Russia, indeed well below norm there, but not making an impression on W Europe which remains mild for the next two weeks, if anything milder than shown yesterday. Rain (probably not snow except over mountains) as usual for Atlantic coasts in week 1 plus some stretching down across the Alps and into the EMed; in week 2 generally drier with the wetter areas from Scotland up to Norway.

FAX shows the current LP with showery troughs dominating for a couple of days then the classic warm front - cold front - transient ridge for Tue and again Thu, nicely picked out on the MetO rainfall chart too.

JET - the stream is ever stronger, waving across Britain for the next 10 days; it suddenly subsides on Sat 21st but resumes in a much more buckled form a couple of days later

GFS Op - procession of LPs originating near Greenland and passing near Scotland driven by the Jet, presumably, until Fri 20th when a ridge of HP in the Atlantic allows LP to settle over Finland 985mb  and again Tue 24th S Norway 1000mb with a N-ly influence for Britain.

ECM - as GFS to Tue 17th then slows down the procession with the last LP 995mb Scotland moving SE to France and N-lies beginning a couple of days earlier

GEFS - mean temp up and down near norm until Fri 13th after which the mean drops to a little below norm and stays there but not very meaningful as so much disagreement between ens members. Rain in most ens members at some time or other, heaviest in S & W, not much in N & E and quite dry in far NE. Snow row figures only significant for the Highlands, and that mostly after Mon 16th.

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GEM and to an extent EC starting to indicate the mean trough sinking a fair way south into Europe day 8 on.
I think the GFS op (previously the parallel) is still having issues and I’m not putting as much emphasis on it at the moment.
Very tentative signs this morning of something colder on the table going forward.

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Also looks like potential battleground snow potential for some. Definitely more interesting than of recent 

GEM and to an extent EC starting to indicate the mean trough sinking a fair way south into Europe day 8 on.
I think the GFS op (previously the parallel) is still having issues and I’m not putting as much emphasis on it at the moment.
Very tentative signs this morning of something colder on the table going forward.

I am sure the Ski resorts are so desperate to have the LP sink south to give them much needed snowfall and need lot of LP over Europe to March to make up the massive shortfall of snow depth.

ECM average at day 10 indicates a stronger Atlantic ridge and hence a more pronounced northwesterly bias across the UK than the GFS equivalent.

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_204_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_222_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_228_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_234_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_240_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

Looky, looky, looky.

Goes to show what's possible.

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I've added GEFS35 day strat plots in addition to the 16 day one here

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/atmosphere/stratosphere 

Remember that GEFS35 only updates with the 00z cycle (regardless of where you view it).

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I am sure the Ski resorts are so desperate to have the LP sink south to give them much needed snowfall and need lot of LP over Europe to March to make up the massive shortfall of snow depth.

Absolutely. I'm heading to the 3 Valleys in France next weekend and keeping a very close eye on the forecasts! Has been  snowing today but the freezing level is still pretty high🤞🤞

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First interesting chart I've seen for some time 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 
 

WX temp charts show freezing cold staying well N & E; a modest push SW-wards in week 2 to give cooler weather from the Alps to the Black Sea (significant in mountainous regions), little change for Britain. Large area of rain in week 1 from the Atlantic across Britain and on down to Greece, still there but not so intense in week 2.

GFS Op - still a mostly W-ly pattern but modified by an increasing tendency for Lps to dive SE-wards into W Europe after passing Britain hence N/NW-lies from time to time e.g. Mon 16th 995 mb Germany, Sat 21st 990mb Baltic, Tue 24th 1000mb N Sea

ECM - generally agrees, Sun 15th rather than Mon 16th, then Thu 19th 970mb Baltic

GEFS - temps for most ens members oscillating about the norm until Thu 19th (flatter in Scotland), then with variations generally cooler. Rain in most runs and many days, but less than shown yesterday, peaking around Sun 15th, as ever heaviest in NW

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Overall in the longer term, ECM ensembles a trending somewhat towards milder again this morning.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts2/ecmhrens/ecmwfens850london.png 

The tedium continues. Every day I look at the charts thinking there might be some interest, but no - always heights to the south and utter boredom for the UK.

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The tedium continues. Every day I look at the charts thinking there might be some interest, but no - always heights to the south and utter boredom for the UK.

😀 I'm enjoying this winter. The cold spell in December was notable here. In addition, the weather has been quite active recently with significantly wet and windy periods rather than "dog days" which to me are the overcast and drizzly ones. 

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As someone who runs most days, the weather has been dreadful since the cold spell.  I have a few pairs of trainers and they all damp as they never get a chance to dry our properly. Even over Christmas there was virtually no time when it wasn't raining or threatening to rain to go for a decent walk. Looking ahead the GEFS snow row figures are not terrible but it's just transient spells with wet sleet at best.

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The period around the 16th is still in the space for a NW Pm flow with uppers cold enough for wintry ppn in the usual places. A potent dangler or gap straggler could deliver in the NW.
At least it’s a move towards something interesting.

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So it looks like more of the same but just a bit colder. Roll on February then at least we can start looking forward to lighter evenings.

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So it looks like more of the same but just a bit colder. Roll on February then at least we can start looking forward to lighter evenings.

As sympathetic as I am to this you can see the snow rows for London up to 12 for 17th - 19th Jan so a chance of something is in the mix.

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As sympathetic as I am to this you can see the snow rows for London up to 12 for 17th - 19th Jan so a chance of something is in the mix.

It'd all likely be slushy at best - and certainly transient. Part of me thinks "might as well not bother"

That was the problem with 2013. We had 3 snowfalls of at least 10cm (plus another around 5cm and a couple others dusting to 1cm) but not one lasted to the following weekend (3 of the 4 deeper falls happened on weekends)

 

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