It'd all likely be slushy at best - and certainly transient. Part of me thinks "might as well not bother"

That was the problem with 2013. We had 3 snowfalls of at least 10cm (plus another around 5cm and a couple others dusting to 1cm) but not one lasted to the following weekend (3 of the 4 deeper falls happened on weekends)

 

Still better than the recent crud surely... PMA and all that 🤣

I think it was either the 1st or 2nd year we lived here, 2017 or 2018, we had quite a few days of snowfall, and that was all down to a NW air flow rather than N or E. Admittedly less than 2013 but not bad for C S England.

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GEM really in the mood today for some amplification behind the mean trough dropping into Europe period 17th Jan on.
 

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Still better than the recent crud surely... PMA and all that 🤣

I think it was either the 1st or 2nd year we lived here, 2017 or 2018, we had quite a few days of snowfall, and that was all down to a NW air flow rather than N or E. Admittedly less than 2013 but not bad for C S England.

An inch of slush? Probably... just.

Think I'd put preferences of general events that we've had in the last 12/13 years in the following order:

1) Good fall of snow followed by cold spell for at least 3-4 weeks that keeps snow on the ground
2) Decent fall of snow that only lasts 3-4 days
3) UK high lasting 3-4 weeks bringing settled, chilly and foggy conditions
4) Euro-high ridging over the UK to give period of settled but mild weather
4) Two-day slush-fest within a mostly mobile and usettled but chilly set-up
5) Continuation of unsettled, mild and wet

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GEM really in the mood today for some amplification behind the mean trough dropping into Europe period 17th Jan on.
 

I wouldn't say no to this:

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ECM det looking ok for a brief blast from the NW.

Saint and I might get a couple of hail showers 😂

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brief or hail no use to anyone… 

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Definitely looking like a struggle in the next 10 days for consensus but chance for some more wintry weather around. How much amplification there will be is anyones guess or spoiler short waves otherwise know as low pressure could spoil the fun. Would love some heavy wintry showers. More NW parts should see the fun

GFS op comes up with a textbook easterly at the end - would cause a few headaches

I wouldn't say no to this:

That just looks downright nasty. 

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An inch of slush? Probably... just.

Think I'd put preferences of general events that we've had in the last 12/13 years in the following order:

1) Good fall of snow followed by cold spell for at least 3-4 weeks that keeps snow on the ground
2) Decent fall of snow that only lasts 3-4 days
3) UK high lasting 3-4 weeks bringing settled, chilly and foggy conditions
4) Euro-high ridging over the UK to give period of settled but mild weather
4) Two-day slush-fest within a mostly mobile and usettled but chilly set-up
5) Continuation of unsettled, mild and wet

Just about sums up most people’s preferences on here: Let’s hope for a Bingo - number 1 - as per the GFS FI eye candy served up tonight - like some knickerbocker glory after a post Christmas diet induced sugar drought...LOL 

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WX - really cold weather over Russia still playing hard-to-get, though much of W Europe away from the SW cools down after being mild in week1, including some effect on Scotland. Still wet for Atlantic coasts extending inland to include France and Germany; No let-up for Britain, showing as wetter than in yesterday's charts.

JET mostly strong and frequently aimed directly at the British Isles for the next fortnight. FAX has a procession of LPs crossing Scotland this week (further S than GFS Op) with active fronts for the rest of Britain today, Thu & Sat.

GFS Op mostly westerly with an occasional break if the LP takes a more S-ly track through the N Sea. Pressure centres at 965mb Orkney Wed 11th, 975mb Fri 13th Hebrides, 985mb Sun 15th NI, 970mb E Scotland Wed 18th (this is the break and brings in N-lies for a couple of days),  Mon 23rd 975mb Orkney, Wed 25th 975mb Norway (more N-lies) 

ECM much the same with slight differences in timing

GEFS like yesterday, temps up and down esp in the S until Sun 15th, then on the cool side for ten days or so. Rain well distributed in time and space, heaviest in west and in the S around Sun 15th. Snow row figures commonly 20+/33 for the Highlands, not a great deal elsewhere.

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Not a particularly inspiring op run with heights setting up over Europe again in the latter stages. Pretty pointless as it changes so often. Next week could spring a couple of surprises in terms of snow especially if coinciding with nighttime 

Not a particularly inspiring op run with heights setting up over Europe again in the latter stages. Pretty pointless as it changes so often. Next week could spring a couple of surprises in terms of snow especially if coinciding with nighttime 

As gunky as 'we might get something if it's dark' sounds it's probably the best most of us can hope for as it stands, with the GFS OP (debate over it's integrity ongoing) moving away from the idea of decent amplification now.
The decent pattern from the GEM in the last few runs is looking a little isolated now.

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Not a particularly inspiring op run with heights setting up over Europe again in the latter stages. Pretty pointless as it changes so often. Next week could spring a couple of surprises in terms of snow especially if coinciding with nighttime 

I know that alot of us will write off our chances of snow on a North-Westerly. However, there's always the chance that snowfall(if it's cold enough)won't just be confined to prone places. Given the right synoptics, you can see more widespread snow if polar lows develop.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=birmingham&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)  

It looks marginal at best but who knows?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=165&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

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I know that alot of us will write off our chances of snow on a North-Westerly. However, there's always the chance that snowfall(if it's cold enough)won't just be confined to prone places. Given the right synoptics, you can see more widespread snow if polar lows develop.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=birmingham&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)  

It looks marginal at best but who knows?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=165&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

According to the snow rows, Birmingham's got better prospects for snow than Liverpool!

(more to do with Liverpool being on the coast; move a few miles inland and the prospects improve)

 

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I know that alot of us will write off our chances of snow on a North-Westerly. However, there's always the chance that snowfall(if it's cold enough)won't just be confined to prone places. Given the right synoptics, you can see more widespread snow if polar lows develop.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=birmingham&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)  

It looks marginal at best but who knows?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=165&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

The charts recently have hinted at a spell of cold zonality and it looks to be firming up on that scenario.  Essentially cold rain for lowland areas from the Midlands south, but if a disturbance takes a track that keeps the cold air on its northern edge then transient wintriness and some possible snowfalls are on the menu.  But nothing especially cold and no real sign of it being more than a passing phase before perhaps turning milder and more settled towards the south later.

 

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Wow. What a turn around from the dross that was showing a few days ago? If you love cold and snow things might get quite interesting. Met Office update looking snowy too.

Yep good 12s so far especially GEM and UKMO.  GEM even has some snow for the South next week. UKMO has -8c 850s as far south as Birmingham by 144h.

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Interesting op run GFS - the blob of orange is interesting might be able to get a Scandi high!

Interesting op run GFS - the blob of orange is interesting might be able to get a Scandi high!

I reckon GFS has that nailed - Scandi HP and -10 uppers bringing snow IMBY. All at only T360 onwards😋

Ignoring the deep FI amusement, colder zonal looks favoured in the mid term with more amplification allowing ridges Northwards and colder air to flow south at times - usually (but not always) chilly, miserable and damp IMBY but good for Northern hills and brings the risk of transient snow from the Midlands upwards although very much dependent on lots of variables coming good at the right time.

The GFS Scandi solution isn't too implausible against the backdrop of repeated ridges of HP and a more meandering jet but equally HP developing to our South as the ridges topple in to Europe is very plausible too and more common than a decent Scandi block (and being picky the GFS op version looks pretty tenuous and under pressure at the end of the run).

At least there's some charts to speculate over at the moment, rather than the flat zonal dross of recent weeks!

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