Met Global pulls some very cold air southwards for a short time early next week.

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I reckon GFS has that nailed - Scandi HP and -10 uppers bringing snow IMBY. All at only T360 onwards😋

Ignoring the deep FI amusement, colder zonal looks favoured in the mid term with more amplification allowing ridges Northwards and colder air to flow south at times - usually (but not always) chilly, miserable and damp IMBY but good for Northern hills and brings the risk of transient snow from the Midlands upwards although very much dependent on lots of variables coming good at the right time.

The GFS Scandi solution isn't too implausible against the backdrop of repeated ridges of HP and a more meandering jet but equally HP developing to our South as the ridges topple in to Europe is very plausible too and more common than a decent Scandi block (and being picky the GFS op version looks pretty tenuous and under pressure at the end of the run).

At least there's some charts to speculate over at the moment, rather than the flat zonal dross of recent weeks!

What are the odds on the next run having pressure 80mb lower over northern Scandi at Day 15?   
 

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What are the odds on the next run having pressure 80mb lower over northern Scandi at Day 15?   
 

Rather good I'd imagine🤣

It'll be interesting to see if it's a flash in a pan or has a bit of ens support and/or is toyed with over the next couple of days. All depends on what the jet does and whether we get another strong, flat pulse before anything interesting can happen I guess. 

Aside from me cherry picking deep FI to suit MBY, was expecting a little more interest re the GFS (and GEM) ops - cold enough for wintriness over a fairly wide area at times. Nothing exceptional but interesting I'd have said, assuming it doesn't get watered down as we get closer.

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There does definitely seem to be a bit of a trend towards something on the colder side of average in the medium term. Nothing remarkable and probably not extremely wintry but there could be some interesting weather around that is more than mild, wet and windy. The 12z GEFS t850 ensemble mean here dips below average on the 13th and remains there.

Here is the 24hr snow probability chart using the 12z GEFS data for 126hr so not exactly deep FI:  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-126.png?12  

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What are the odds on the next run having pressure 80mb lower over northern Scandi at Day 15?   
 

4 to 1 on the nose for a Horse called Rough Rider.

At least from a few models and Ens things are looking more interesting now, the 17th/18th might even touch a frost down here, crazy times for mid-winter!!

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ECM also has a huge dump of snow for the South next week. Eyebrows officially raised.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20230118-1200z.html 
 

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A big step today towards colder - ECM also flirting with the idea of decent pressure rise. Not looking at specifics just the trend and that looks positive. Odds on Scandi high look shorter

ECM also has a huge dump of snow for the South next week. Eyebrows officially raised.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20230118-1200z.html 
 

That's almost the perfect track to deliver snowfall on the eastern flank. But that's the risk - even 100 miles either way and the result is entirely different. 

 

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That NW'ly on the ECM tonight looks to be more cold feeling than cold in any meaningful sense regarding temps. It's the sort of pattern though that can trigger random potent shortwaves at only a moments notice, so hopefully some storm 10/11 winds on offer in future runs. 



 

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I appreciate it’s called the pub run, but can anyone explain why the colder runs always seem to appear in the evenings? 

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I appreciate it’s called the pub run, but can anyone explain why the colder runs always seem to appear in the evenings? 

The (GFS) “pub run” is the 18z run due out shortly. The runs being discussed are the 12z sets.

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I appreciate it’s called the pub run, but can anyone explain why the colder runs always seem to appear in the evenings? 

just perception it only really gets highlighted when it’s a cold run. There have been many poor pub runs

just perception it only really gets highlighted when it’s a cold run. There have been many poor pub runs

Exactly. It's the same as regards comments about the models changing with each run - they always change, but we don't subject average or mild output to anything like the same intense scrutiny.

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ECM ENS suggesting 4 or 5 cold days are probable even in the south next week.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/ecm-tables.aspx 
 

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That's almost the perfect track to deliver snowfall on the eastern flank. But that's the risk - even 100 miles either way and the result is entirely different. 

 

And a shallow LP would assist any wintryness generally.

Changes afoot in a week's time. Colder than it has been in the South since before Christmas and perhaps some High Pressure around at times making for less rain. That's all I'm saying at this stage but it appears to be a trend developing 😉

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To early for details but looks like a half decent cold spell between 15th and 20th. Snow chances for many even in the South but especially northern hills. 

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Most of the models appear to be lining up for a cold spell indeed. Fingers crossed🥶

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Brutal cold on its way. (36 years ago today)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1987&month=Jan&dom=11&var=tmp®ion=NA&level=850&hour=00 


 

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Brutal cold on its way. (36 years ago today)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1987&month=Jan&dom=11&var=tmp®ion=NA&level=850&hour=00 


 

Much has been written, and there have been many comparisons, but that short but brutal spell remains the winter highlight at least for me here in Deep South. Mon 12th Jan in isolation was as good as it gets - a NE gale, -6C max and blowing, drifting snow. What a day!

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