A brief cold incursion (it is January after all) then a quick return to mild, Zonal dross.

Not interested in a blink and you miss it cold "snapette".

Still interesting signals in the Stratosphere, but signals can wax and wane. ​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​Form horse remains mostly unsettled, mild and cool spells with a very brief flirtation with something cold, for about 24 hours.    

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Close, but not quite right.

John Kettley left in 2000 to join a private forecasting company. He then forecast that very cold weather - cynics might say he was just trying to "outdo" the Met Office and garner attention for the forecasting company, but who knows.

The Met Office response, via the Beeb, was to rubbish him.

Loads more about this, including the Beeb forecasts, over on NetWeather:

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/72483-met-office-v-john-kettley-early-february-2001/ 
 

Thanks Darren - I knew there was a thread on it somewhere. My memory isn't quite what it was, but I'm sure Kettley at least made the forecast on a mainstream outlet (Radio 2?).

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2000/1 was actually a decent winter despite that disapointment, lots of snow events, although there was a time when Borders/Scotland/Shetland were making the headlines with severe snow when we didnt have any/much.   Good surprise snow event of 6 inches on 22 March 2001 too, very localised though. 

 

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I Don't know if it has already been highlighted, but all flights were grounded in America earlier this  morning because of computer systems failure. Could effect model output I guess. 

2000/1 was actually a decent winter despite that disapointment, lots of snow events, although there was a time when Borders/Scotland/Shetland were making the headlines with severe snow when we didnt have any/much.   Good surprise snow event of 6 inches on 22 March 2001 too, very localised though. 

 

There was a great fall between Xmas and NY (although a disappointment on NYE). And we also had a fall in March, which left several cm's on the ground (albeit very wet snow)

 

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Quite different at 162h on 12z from 6z not worth much going beyond about 6 days currently and some interesting weather to come. See the fortune teller is back

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A messy (but essentially consistent with recent output) 12z GFS so far - one of those setups that's very marginal but often brings at least transient snowfall, as shown by the precip charts at varying points.

The further North you are and the higher up you are, the greater chance you have of seeing snow and just based on the 12z op in isolation parts of Scotland would do well for cold and snow for several days. 

Signs at T252 of HP being a bit more extensive to the south rather than the west or south west and a consequent feed of milder air, might not last long though and a bit pointless looking at in isolation. 

 

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I enjoyed the references to January 1987 this morning, but never mind that - look what's been number one on the analogue index for the last couple of days:

11 JAN 2023
Place Year  Index value
1       1986 9284

February 1986 here we come! (It's been hovering near the top for quite a while.)

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So what you're saying is that we need to look deep into the unreliable FI time period for mild weather? Interesting.

The colder, potentially wintry,snap may not even happen given the timescale so guessing beyond then looks a bit pointless to me to be honest as only a few days ago it was mooted that it would continue mild throughout the entire month.

well there's high confidence now I think in the colder snap next week, however there's also a reasonably strong signal for it to turn milder after that. Of course it could change at this range however I feel like the models have performed mostly well this Winter so wouldn't bet against them.

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well there's high confidence now I think in the colder snap next week, however there's also a reasonably strong signal for it to turn milder after that. Of course it could change at this range however I feel like the models have performed mostly well this Winter so wouldn't bet against them.

The standard deviations on the ensemble data indicate reasonably good agreement up to the 18th of January only, perhaps the 19th on the ECM ensemble data. After that the variability is very large.

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ECM hopefully be a cracker this evening- find out soon

A brief cold incursion (it is January after all) then a quick return to mild, Zonal dross.
Not interested in a blink and you miss it cold "snapette".
Still interesting signals in the Stratosphere, but signals can wax and wane. ​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Form horse remains mostly unsettled, mild and cool spells with a very brief flirtation with something cold, for about 24 hours.    

Hello, I'm not sure which charts you have to hand that point to a return to zonal weather? It may or may not turn milder after next week's cold snap, but going by the GEFS pressure ensemble suite it actually favours higher pressure (moreso further south) along with a NA jet that is far from flat across the Atlantic.



FI at that stage mind, but I'd be more inclined to favour a typical NW/SE split after the cold snap. What's a snapette? 🤔

Next week's charts scream snow potential in my opinion. Low thicknesses, trough disruption with polar air...



We've been waiting for a change to the status quo for some time now and at last we've got it 😊

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Tomorrow, if FI flips to showing cold for the rest of the month, do you think the poster in question will be back on here giving a cold forecast?

Works the other way as well for some of those hilariously looking for cold all the time. Of course they are never pulled to task about it. They’re seen as good eggs. 

jff

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ECM at 144h will feel cold in the south in that wind!
Eventually warmer westerly winds over the top of the Azores high. Bit of fun before it gets fairly mild 

The ECM 10 day mean is pretty hopeless for cold though. So after our blink and you miss it cold snap, its back to normal service
Is there any point getting interested in this at all?
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

As I recall I was fairly indifferent to the cold spell in December a week out. Just showed about -5C uppers and relatively dry. Then as it got closer it did the unusual thing of getting colder but the possibility of up to 6" of snow (Harlow I believe) wasn't ever forecast till it happened. More snow looks at least possible. If you want a cold spell over two weeks long you're probably on a one in twenty year event. 

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So what you're saying is that we need to look deep into the unreliable FI time period for mild weather? Interesting.
.

You don't need to no, not if you don't want to. It may well be meaningless but that is what it is showing at the moment. If he said otherwise he would be making it up!

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You don't need to no, not if you don't want to. It may well be meaningless but that is what it is showing at the moment. If he said otherwise he would be making it up!

Thanks for that helpful contribution. I never said that wasn’t what was being shown at the moment did I? I commented on the reliability which I then later on backed up with more evidence. I’m sure there is a decent chance it will turn milder after the probable colder unsettled snap, that’s not my point.

You seem to be largely replying to something I didn’t actually say, not for the first time either, but if it makes you happy that’s cool. Please don’t twist my narrative to insinuate something I’m not saying.

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A brief cold incursion (it is January after all) then a quick return to mild, Zonal dross.

Not interested in a blink and you miss it cold "snapette".

Still interesting signals in the Stratosphere, but signals can wax and wane. 

​​​​​​​Form horse remains mostly unsettled, mild and cool spells with a very brief flirtation with something cold, for about 24 hours.    

They put snow on my 50th Birthday on 16th Jan, even if a brief one at least to see snowfall on my day then a bit colder on Tuesday but dry then jump back to above average so heating costs will not be high as last month.

They put snow on my 50th Birthday on 16th Jan, even if a brief one at least to see snowfall on my day then a bit colder on Tuesday but dry then jump back to above average so heating costs will not be high as last month.

Happy birthday in advance and yes it’s worth keeping an eye out for the risk of snow for your birthday. Even in Aberdeen I’ve never had snow on my birthday which is disappointing…but then again my birthday is in July. 🤡

Anyway brief summary of the models’ output this evening cooler and unsettled then milder and potentially more settled, with all the usual caveats given the time scales. This is backed up by the 12z ECM ensemble data.

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