theweatheroutlook

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Rob K
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 8:14:36 AM

Feels like today could be the last decent wintry day with freezing fog, GFS tries to build HP to the east but our friendly euro high prevents decent set up prevailing. Might be early spring is wintry but from March prefer warmer

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


I noticed the Daily Star yesterday had a front page screaming about freezing cold easterly weather this week. On closer inspection they were trying desperately to make 7C with overnight lows of -2C sound cold. Isn’t that pretty much bang on average for February?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 9:09:47 AM

I noticed the Daily Star yesterday had a front page screaming about freezing cold easterly weather this week. On closer inspection they were trying desperately to make 7C with overnight lows of -2C sound cold. Isn’t that pretty much bang on average for February?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


OT, but Carol K was questioned yesterday by the presenters who asked about the deep snow and freezing weather on the way. She totally blanked them and went on to talk about a slight frost.
It beggars belief how the mainstream media continue to get hooked by the lies that continue to be spouted by charlatan 'forecasters' without any examination or redress when they get it totally wrong which they do most of the time. I will continue to call them out.
On topic, and the demise of another winter is being projected across the board. If there was any response to the drop in the mean zonal flow in our area of the NH we should start to see it in the latter stages of the GFS from early next week. I am not going to hold my breath.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 10:03:14 AM

Feels like today could be the last decent wintry day with freezing fog, GFS tries to build HP to the east but our friendly euro high prevents decent set up prevailing. Might be early spring is wintry but from March prefer warmer

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



We're now out of Astronomical winter, i.e. the 3 months of the shortest daylight and weakest sunshine. When the sun is out it actually feels pleasant now and I have noticed the first few max temp spikes above 15C on the London GEFS charts. Let's see if this winter has a sting in its tail!

 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ballamar
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 10:15:23 AM
GFS shows how small shortwave/low/lobe can prevent straight line WAA to get a chance of winter. Expect this run to end up fairly mild (op run)
Quantum
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 10:26:38 AM
What does it actually take to get a decent cold spell in my area. In Yorkshire getting a decent snow cover to last more than a day shouldn't be that hard. I feel like I've been waiting over a decade now.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
westv
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 10:30:57 AM

What does it actually take to get a decent cold spell in my area. In Yorkshire getting a decent snow cover to last more than a day shouldn't be that hard. I feel like I've been waiting over a decade now.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


What happened in 2018? I'm sure our snowcover here lasted a number of days back then 
At least it will be mild!
westv
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 10:34:00 AM



It beggars belief how the mainstream media continue to get hooked by the lies that continue to be spouted by charlatan 'forecasters' without any examination or redress when they get it totally wrong which they do most of the time. I will continue to call them out.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



"Slightly chiily with overnight frost" will never be a headline.
At least it will be mild!
Quantum
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 10:37:18 AM

What happened in 2018? I'm sure our snowcover here lasted a number of days back then 

Originally Posted by: westv 



Was thoroughly dissapointing especially given the setup. Essentially my area was stuck between two regions of vorticity; the showers to the north and the frontal snow to the south; in between there was a bit of a snow drought. I remember a couple of cms on one day, but honestly it was pathetic for a cold spell that delivered crazy -16C uppers to my area. When I was in my later years of secondary school, a snowcover would happen more often than not each year; now its quite normal to get a year without a decent snowcover (>2cm for >1 day) at all. 2018 was thoroughly unmemorable for me, except ironically, I think in the 2nd part of the cold spell when I took a trip down to Devon. By contrast I still have vivid memories of 2005. In fact the whole 2005-2013 period was quite snowy for me. Since then its been terrible, 2021 was okay but only for the novelty of getting quite alot of snow in April and even into May.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Saint Snow
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 11:01:47 AM
Basically, high pressure to our SE, low to our NW.

It's become the default pattern.

Sometime the high ridges/migrates over us; other times it retreats and lows/fronts pass over us.

It's a really depressing set-up.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
idj20
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 11:09:35 AM
Looking less unsettled with high pressure still having an influence at least over the southern portion of the UK. A Winter without even using the first letter on the named storm table could still be on the cards. Like I've said, I've given up all hopes of ever seeing any real wintry weather so far this season (as in sustained snow and ice) so I'm aiming for the next best thing; an early burst of proper Spring-like warmth and the GFS 6z & GEM 00z runs shows some of that. ECM is less keen with a more maritime-type set up.
Folkestone Harbour. 
The Beast from the East
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 11:11:03 AM

We're now out of Astronomical winter, i.e. the 3 months of the shortest daylight and weakest sunshine. When the sun is out it actually feels pleasant now and I have noticed the first few max temp spikes above 15C on the London GEFS charts. Let's see if this winter has a sting in its tail!

 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



I saw my first blasted wasp this morning. Was hoping the frost would kill them all but sadly not, the sun really packing a punch now and feels springlike even if its technically 3C at the moment

Looks like becoming much more unsettled next week but lets hope we can avoid a repeat of last years storms
 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 11:12:30 AM



It's a really depressing set-up.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



That can be applied to all aspects of life in the UK currently
 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
+1
Rob K
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 12:23:51 PM

Basically, high pressure to our SE, low to our NW.

It's become the default pattern.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It has always been the default pattern, simply thanks to our location on the planet.
Although there's no denying that the pattern has become stronger in recent decades, as that chart Brian sometimes posts showing the pressure trend over time  in NW Europe illustrates.

Not much of interest in the models of late - the tentative signs of colder runs I noticed a day or two ago have largely vanished. Cool and settled, then slightly less settled, and then warmer and settled looks to be the order of the day for the south.

Gorgeous weather at the moment though. Felt very springlike when I went out for a walk in the sun yesterday, and today is also bright and cloudless after the foggy start.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Dub Version
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 12:46:57 PM
Most forget 2018 had 2, yes 2 BFTE episodes....beginning of march and mid march
 
Berkshire
Gandalf The White
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 1:24:27 PM

Basically, high pressure to our SE, low to our NW.

It's become the default pattern.

Sometime the high ridges/migrates over us; other times it retreats and lows/fronts pass over us.

It's a really depressing set-up.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



It is what it is and personally I'm content to have some calm, sunny days and seasonably chilly overnight temperatures.  But things are certainly afoot up in the stratosphere:  the forecast wind pattern shows a continuing reversal across North America and slack winds across NE Canada and a large swathe of the North Atlantic in a couple of weeks' time.  Who knows what that might do to conditions in the troposphere but at least it's something of interest as winter enters its final days.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2023020706/gfsnh-17-360.png?6 

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Retron
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 1:34:41 PM

Most forget 2018 had 2, yes 2 BFTE episodes....beginning of march and mid march
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


One was record-breakingly cold aloft, brought -14C to Kent and a few ice days - a true Beast, albeit cruelly cut off in its prime.

The second saw no ice days, wasn't that cold and saw some slush. Less a beast, more a tired old moggy!

Incidentally, the fact it took record-breaking low 1000-500 thickness and 850s to bring a winter wonderland means I won't get excited about prospects for the end of Feb this year... the odds on breaking two records within 5 years are vanishingly small.
Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 1:42:29 PM

One was record-breakingly cold aloft, brought -14C to Kent and a few ice days - a true Beast, albeit cruelly cut off in its prime.

The second saw no ice days, wasn't that cold and saw some slush. Less a beast, more a tired old moggy!

Incidentally, the fact it took record-breaking low 1000-500 thickness and 850s to bring a winter wonderland means I won't get excited about prospects for the end of Feb this year... the odds on breaking two records within 5 years are vanishingly small.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yes but for some of us (okay me) it was very underwhelming. On the other hand.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2005/cfsr/CFSR_1_2005022106_2.png 
UserPostedImage
This brought feet of snow to my area. Uppers were cold, but not excessively so.

Though I will admit the maximum temps of 3-5C during the day made everything a bit drippy.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
The Dub Version
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 3:43:15 PM
slowly slowly...

Confidence in the forecast around the turn of the month becomes much lower, and whilst the more likely scenario is one of a continuation of similar conditions experienced through the latter half of February, there is a low probability of some much colder weather developing.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 7 Feb 2023
Berkshire
Saint Snow
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 4:06:54 PM

Yes but for some of us (okay me) it was very underwhelming.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 




I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 4:11:05 PM
Looks potentially spring-like at times this weekend in parts of the UK. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
Quantum
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 4:14:32 PM

I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Yeh but with all due respect, you live in the NW so don't expect to do well during an easterly.

2018 should have delivered, but it was painful watching everywhere else get loads of snow. You've probably done okay this winter, I never get snow during polar maritime outbreaks, but a scandi high should deliver which made 2018 all the more dissapointing.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Saint Snow
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 4:23:30 PM

Yeh but with all due respect, you live in the NW so don't expect to do well during an easterly.

2018 should have delivered, but it was painful watching everywhere else get loads of snow. You've probably done okay this winter, I never get snow during polar maritime outbreaks, but a scandi high should deliver which made 2018 all the more dissapointing.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 




I know. That's what  said 😁

We've not done well at all here this winter. A few of 1cm falls and that's it (one coinciding with our flight to Paris, robbing us of most of a day of a long weekend because Manc Airport are penny-pinching arseholes). That fall did at least freeze and stay on the ground for a week - but then it turned depressingly mild for Xmas.

I don't think many did that well out of either cold spell. We went across to Haworth in January, and whilst there was snow from Rochdale upwards (altitude-wise), it was only perhaps 5-7cm even over the tops (and in Haworth, so it did make it to Yorkshire)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 4:35:18 PM

I know. That's what  said 😁

We've not done well at all here this winter. A few of 1cm falls and that's it (one coinciding with our flight to Paris, robbing us of most of a day of a long weekend because Manc Airport are penny-pinching arseholes). That fall did at least freeze and stay on the ground for a week - but then it turned depressingly mild for Xmas.

I don't think many did that well out of either cold spell. We went across to Haworth in January, and whilst there was snow from Rochdale upwards (altitude-wise), it was only perhaps 5-7cm even over the tops (and in Haworth, so it did make it to Yorkshire)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Look at my sig! The single entry wasn't even snow, I include all wintry precip including ice pellets!

On the plus side there is now a trend towards a bit more amplification. The 12Z is trying to form a siberian high. I mean nowhere near there yet, but maybe 3 upgrades away from something really good?
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 5:02:39 PM
UserPostedImage
This sort of thing starting to show up now. Again its not that far away from a cold spell, needs a few more upgrades in the right direction.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Jiries
Tuesday, February 7, 2023 6:09:42 PM

Looks potentially spring-like at times this weekend in parts of the UK. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Would reckon get to low to mid teens? Today Nuneaton hit 10C from -3 under full sun.  If the same at the weekend if night not that cold then possible no heating day.
+1

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