Not only that but also mostly dry over a large part of the country away from some NWern parts.

The banality of most of this winter is stark. Every day brings the same weather. Bit of cloud. Bit of wet sun. The odd raindrop hitting you in the face out of nowhere. Snore galore.

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The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

Was it Feb 98 that we got up to 18C?
I think in the modern are we could easily smash 20 with a similar pattern. The older I get the more I hate the cold and seem to crave sun and heat, so bring on an early spring and another record breaking year of heat. 

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Was it Feb 98 that we got up to 18C?
I think in the modern are we could easily smash 20 with a similar pattern. The older I get the more I hate the cold and seem to crave sun and heat, so bring on an early spring and another record breaking year of heat. 

I think that has already happened, unless my recollection is wrong.

I'm fairly sure that 20C or 21C was reached during the record-warm spell of mid-February 2019, around the same time that the previous record was set in 1998.

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I always say to muggles (non model watchers) that very cold and very warm weather (particularly in spring and autumn) are friends with each other. In the spring of 2021 which was the snowiest of my lifetime there were warm spells prior. I mean for us its easy to understand why, the same thing that brings unusually warm weather is just an anticyclone repositioning away from very cold weather; so if its very mild (again especially in spring and autumn) then chances are its blocked and that always leaves open the door for things to turn very cold...
 

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There is certainly a southerly push right up into the high arctic - reaching Svalbard, so the raw ingredients are showing signs of coming into the bowl, but the GFS is thus far missing the Magi-mixer, but as you say - a couple of runs more. Is the Euro slug/ Azores high monster, that scourge of the climate changed NW Europe winter, wallowing too deep to shift, and set to spoil the cake?  

6Z looks to be another upgrade.

Could be one of those days where it suddenly flips from boring to interesting. Hopefully anyway.
 

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Have a look at P48 on the ECMWF. To me this seems like a plausible evolution, and as I say I think we are only 1 upgrade away from seeing this appear quite widely on the ensembles.

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I think that has already happened, unless my recollection is wrong.

I'm fairly sure that 20C or 21C was reached during the record-warm spell of mid-February 2019, around the same time that the previous record was set in 1998.

Yes, I had forgotten about that. Could be on course for a repeat if the Merkel slug/Bartlett remains in the right place
 

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Looking lovely for the foreseeable. Nice pleasantly warm days.

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Bog standard on the op run - any blocking quickly pushed away.

The banality of most of this winter is stark. Every day brings the same weather. Bit of cloud. Bit of wet sun. The odd raindrop hitting you in the face out of nowhere. Snore galore.

Perhaps it's just in this region then but I'm loving the weather we've had since mid January. Mostly dry with plenty of sunshine (and a few cloudy days) , varying between mild and cold with some decent overnight frosts. 

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Thought I would do a review of GEFS 6z and prospects for cold

Not good!!

more in depth analysis later on 12z

I think that has already happened, unless my recollection is wrong.

I'm fairly sure that 20C or 21C was reached during the record-warm spell of mid-February 2019, around the same time that the previous record was set in 1998.

Yes, 2019 was exceptional with several record-breaking days. I remember sitting in a pub garden in a T-shirt on Sunday 24th and that wasn't even the warmest day.

From Trevor Harley's site:

On Thursday 21 Scotland's record maximum (since 1897) was broken, with 18.3C recorded at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire). On the 22nd a new Welsh record is set with 18.1C at Gogerddan (Cardigan Bay), and then broken again with 19.1 on the 24th also at Gogerddan. On Monday the 25th 20.6C broke the 20C record in Trawgoedd (and 20.4 in Northolt, London). Tuesday 26th was then exceptional: 21.2C at Kew Gardens in London, and 20.8 in Porthmadog (Wales). 

And of course the month started with deep snow on the ground! We had a a couple of inches overnight 31 Jan - 1 Feb and then a serious dump on the night of 1-2 Feb. It took me about an hour and a half to get the 4 miles home from Fleet station with my bike as the snow was too deep even to push the bike through easily. 2 Feb was a glorious day with 8 inches of snow over Basingstoke way and brilliant sunshine.

Feb 2019 was probably the best winter month of the last decade - it had everything.

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ICON12Z looks a bit more amplified than ICON6Z and alot more amplifed than ICON0Z.

Still feels a few upgrades away from anything good. GFS6Z was actually a downgrade on GFS0Z.
 

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GFS12Z definitely more amplified than GFS6Z, looks fairly comparable to the 0Z which was the most amplified GFSOP so far.
 

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Some serious warmth possible

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1 
 

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Some serious warmth possible

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1 
 

I would say mid possibly even high teens are possible here at some point in the coming week or two if there is a Föhn effect. 😎

 

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Some serious warmth possible

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1 
 

At 210 chart -12 to - 16C over Turkey and almost cross to Cyprus area.   Trying to imagine if those low uppers will hit Cyprus hard which every year always stop at Turkey so it a matter of time it will hit jackpot.

At 210 chart -12 to - 16C over Turkey and almost cross to Cyprus area.   Trying to imagine if those low uppers will hit Cyprus hard which every year always stop at Turkey so it a matter of time it will hit jackpot.

The jackpot? I suspect they people in many parts of the area would think the jackpot was mild dry and sunny days right now. The ECM 12z continues with the largely anticyclonic and generally mild benign theme in the overall outlook. Hopefully there will be plenty of sunshine around.

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Think GEFS tells the story well with no sub -10 runs - would take a mammoth effort for the south to get any wintry weather in this winter now. Now where’s that lovely spring warmth 

The jackpot? I suspect they people in many parts of the area would think the jackpot was mild dry and sunny days right now. The ECM 12z continues with the largely anticyclonic and generally mild benign theme in the overall outlook. Hopefully there will be plenty of sunshine around.

To get -12C 850s hit Cyprus is a jackpot after many attempts never cross over from Turkey so it always halted but down to -8 the lowest over the island.   Good for further heating cuts with up coming mild and like you said sunshine hopefully good one.