Taylor1740
03 February 2023 12:49:04
Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I certainly didn't get sucked into believing GFS one iota.

GFS has become the NAVGEM of the 2020s, it is utter rubbish, and the wintry nirvana charts it was showing were never going to come off.
 


I disagree I think GFS is the best model and often picks out the overall long term trend and then the other models play catch up. It sometimes gets the details wrong in the 90-140 hour time frame, however I can't remember the ECM ever picking up the day 10+ pattern ahead of GFS.

​​​​​​​And sorry to point out but I'm sure you have singed the praises of GFS before when it has been the one showing mild weather!!
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Jiries
03 February 2023 12:56:13
Originally Posted by: squish 

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-120.png?6 

06z ICON is a marked improvement on the 00z and a move back to what the GFS had been showing.....

Not a freeze by any means but a chilly  dry spell



Option 1 Mild and Cloudy 13, no solar input indoor so chilly 16-17C
Option 2 Sunny and cool 7C, full solar input indoor more warmer 17-19C.

Icon 06z will give us option 2 so can't wait for that.
squish
03 February 2023 15:35:05
Icon 12z much colder at the surface over most of the continent than the 00z in a weeks time 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
03 February 2023 15:35:38
Icon 12z much colder at the surface over most of the continent than the 00z in a weeks time 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
03 February 2023 16:05:47
There is potential next week to even sneak an ice day, but nothing long lasting. Shame really as a few adjustments could have seen a decent cold shot
squish
03 February 2023 16:50:24
Looks like GEM has taken up the challenge!!
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
03 February 2023 16:51:39
GFS slider for mid to end Feb? Possible on op run
in case anyone says been led down the garden path just commenting on what it’s showing and how winter isn’t necessarily over yet!
tallyho_83
03 February 2023 18:01:29
If this isn't enough to reverse the zonal winds then what is!? Where is the PV? 12z shows persistent repeated warmings over SIBERIA and pushing into N. Pole.

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Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


squish
03 February 2023 18:19:04
gEFS trending colder again 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Brian Gaze
03 February 2023 18:31:39
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

If this isn't enough to reverse the zonal winds then what is!? Where is the PV? 12z shows persistent repeated warmings over SIBERIA and pushing into N. Pole.

UserPostedImage




Be interesting to see how it shows up on the graph shortly.

The 6z update still showing here when posting.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/atmosphere/stratosphere 




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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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DPower
03 February 2023 19:46:00
Where are all the willy waving model knockers now lol, the gfs looks increasing much nearer the mark than the Euro's with the predicted pattern for next week minus the deep freeze though. The Euro's were looking at a mobile westerly onslaught.  Better to keep schtum and wait to see the pattern unfold  rather than gob off and then have to eat humble pie.
Fairly good agreement of a SSW 10 hpa wind reversal at by the 12-14th. Not sure if this at 60n or not. beyond this hoping to see a split rather than a  displacement. Remembering back to Feb 18 and others gone by a SSW split can lead to the coldest of our winter outbreaks with a portion of the vortex dropping into northern Europe, but we need a good slice of luck as well for this to happen.
doctormog
03 February 2023 19:50:54
So after a couple of days of GFS op runs showing extreme outcomes it has moderated to close to the overall picture which has been shown as a consensus across the models, which is high pressure to the east or southeast with anticyclonic conditions more likely the further S and E you go. Well-modelled except by the GFS for some reason.
Bolty
03 February 2023 20:18:42
The uppers look pretty tame for the week ahead, but under a calm and clear high we could still see quite a lot of surface cold building up as the week progresses - moderate/hard overnight frosts when skies clear and low/mid single figure days. Early February is usually still just about early enough in the year to get the inversion-type cold. By the second half of the month though, the increasing strength of the sun and daylength can start to become a bit too much for it to happen.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Jacee
03 February 2023 20:22:28
Originally Posted by: doctormog 

So after a couple of days of GFS op runs showing extreme outcomes it has moderated to close to the overall picture which has been shown as a consensus across the models, which is high pressure to the east or southeast with anticyclonic conditions more likely the further S and E you go. Well-modelled except by the GFS for some reason.



Do we have any verification statistics for the upgraded GFS? Anecdotally I haven't been impressed with it so far, but that may be skewed by the frequency and exposure of its output compared to the rest.
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
Brian Gaze
03 February 2023 20:25:21
Originally Posted by: Jacee 

Do we have any verification statistics for the upgraded GFS? Anecdotally I haven't been impressed with it so far, but that may be skewed by the frequency and exposure of its output compared to the rest.



These are the officially produced ones:

Specifically GFS and other global models

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/bias/ 

Global and other models

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/ 
Brian Gaze
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ballamar
03 February 2023 23:50:48
If GFS hadn’t had it’s moment this week, the GEFS suggest a decent cold period in the south from the 9th. But will probably just wait until the days happen now
tallyho_83
04 February 2023 01:51:21
hmm... very interesting zonal wind forecast @ 10hpa: - One stronger outlier but many GEFS members are now going for a reversal around middle of February..?
http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_gefsonly.png 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Arbroath 1320
04 February 2023 02:35:34
The much predicted, front loaded La Nina Winter definitely looks like materialising for NW Europe.

The mid-latitude High looks like hanging around like a bad smell until it slowly sinks to its favoured location and allows the Atlantic to roar in. 

​​​​Never mind, I'm sure the unseasonably cold weather will return in March and April as the Azores/Euro highs lose their grip 😔
GGTTH
Jiries
04 February 2023 06:02:37
Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

The much predicted, front loaded La Nina Winter definitely looks like materialising for NW Europe.

The mid-latitude High looks like hanging around like a bad smell until it slowly sinks to its favoured location and allows the Atlantic to roar in. 

​​​​Never mind, I'm sure the unseasonably cold weather will return in March and April as the Azores/Euro highs lose their grip 😔



HP are the main source for winter killer and this HP coming up are to block the easterly which GFS touted are going to East Med regions early next week with very cold air for few days after heavy rain and snow forecast this weekend to Monday.  That a reversal zonal winds that Tally mentioned are route to East Med regions but not the UK because HP sit purposely to block it.  Snow likely in Jerusalem and Amman once again.
The Beast from the East
04 February 2023 10:30:42
GFS 06z again teasing, but we know its utter bollox
Reading through netweather last night, you would be forgiven for thinking the dawn of a new ice age was approaching
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