Karl Guille
02 February 2023 22:31:30
GFS 18z doesn't put us in the freezer but things on the ground could get fairly chilly, especially so for the south east.
 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2023020218/gfs-1-216.png?18 
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
tallyho_83
02 February 2023 22:32:09
I have also just noted the ECMWF 42 day mean zonal wind forecast at 10hpa shows quite a crash and it does appear (again!) that we could see a SSW and hopefully this should be enough to split the already weakened PV and send the winds into reverse - let's hope the MJO is in a more favourable phase to give US COLDER blocked weather.

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Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Magical Moon
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Karl Guille
02 February 2023 22:40:30
Seen worse at T240 as GFS 18z temps us with a Scandi High!
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2023020218/gfs-0-240.png?18 
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
ballamar
02 February 2023 22:41:40
Another tease for 11 days time on GFS
squish
02 February 2023 22:50:58
The 18z GEFS 'mean' synoptic pattern is marginally better than the 12z and both remain considerably out of kilter with the rest of the models.  Quite unusual to have such constant divergence, not just in most of the op runs but also in the ensemble suite from al the rest.

ICON seems to have moved incrementally closer to GFS in the last few runs...aslo APERGE 18z

...and the 00z NASA run was quite good 
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
02 February 2023 22:51:50
Snow Hoper
02 February 2023 23:01:48
Looks like the GFS has decided the first part of it's cold spell was a bust, but the 2nd half is still a go🤣 couldn't make it up.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Karl Guille
02 February 2023 23:15:21
An encouraging set of short 18z ensembles IMBY given the disappointment of the 12z suite!  In this scenario an easterly would bring very low daytime maxima!
 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2023020218/graphe3_00000_220_248___.gif 
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
The Beast from the East
02 February 2023 23:26:34
Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

Looks like the GFS has decided the first part of it's cold spell was a bust, but the 2nd half is still a go🤣 couldn't make it up.



once again we allow ourselves to get sucked in by GFS showing some leg and bust, only to get cruelly shown the  door in the morning 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
02 February 2023 23:52:29
GFS , "sacked in the morning"

Or just maybe....just maybe...
Berkshire
UncleAlbert
02 February 2023 23:56:20
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

once again we allow ourselves to get sucked in by GFS showing some leg and bust, only to get cruelly shown the  door in the morning 



Yes we get to the end of the garden path as presented by the GFS and we go through the gate and lo and behold we find we may have another one.  I personally will take the ride because it's looking like the background factors will be more favorable as we go deeper into February........
and besides it's great fun!
Jiries
03 February 2023 06:50:40
Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 

Yes we get to the end of the garden path as presented by the GFS and we go through the gate and lo and behold we find we may have another one.  I personally will take the ride because it's looking like the background factors will be more favorable as we go deeper into February........
and besides it's great fun!


More fun seeing past teletext, TV forecast and newspaper showing interesting weather coming up without a bust.  No fun with any single useless models or fictional apps nowadays.  As some say GFS upgrade made it worst? Wish was shut down instead and big celebrations to see all others shut down and get a single forecasting tools which was used in the past return and allow UK get more variety pattern.  
Retron
03 February 2023 06:54:01
Originally Posted by: Jiries 

More fun seeing past teletext, TV forecast and newspaper showing interesting weather coming up without a bust.  No fun with any single useless models or fictional apps nowadays.  As some say GFS upgrade made it worst? Wish was shut down instead and big celebrations to see all others shut down and get a single forecasting tools which was used in the past return and allow UK get more variety pattern.  


Nothing changes really! 25 years ago it was the MRF (Misleading Rubbishy Forecast, as the wags on usw called it) that we all used to moan about... that then became the AVN and latterly GFS.

The MRF was used at the dawn of the 90s, too, so would have been taken into consideration by the Met Office, in addition to our own models... it's just that you didn't get to see it back then!
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
03 February 2023 07:05:27
Originally Posted by: Retron 

Nothing changes really! 25 years ago it was the MRF (Misleading Rubbishy Forecast, as the wags on usw called it) that we all used to moan about... that then became the AVN and latterly GFS.

The MRF was used at the dawn of the 90s, too, so would have been taken into consideration by the Met Office, in addition to our own models... it's just that you didn't get to see it back then!


Yes and all the data I get from German channel Sat1 and Ard19 teletext forecast that show UK and Europe weather and every Sunday they put weekly forecasts so every cold and snowy or hot and thunder spell for UK always come off and never a bust.  What source did the German Met office used that time while here was MRF? If you know Darren, thanks.
doctormog
03 February 2023 07:11:15
Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Yes and all the data I get from German channel Sat1 and Ard19 teletext forecast that show UK and Europe weather and every Sunday they put weekly forecasts so every cold and snowy or hot and thunder spell for UK always come off and never a bust.  What source did the German Met office used that time while here was MRF? If you know Darren, thanks.



A bit of suggested reading: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/why-are-weather-forecasts-not-always-accurate  
moomin75
03 February 2023 07:26:38
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

once again we allow ourselves to get sucked in by GFS showing some leg and bust, only to get cruelly shown the door in the morning

I certainly didn't get sucked into believing GFS one iota.

GFS has become the NAVGEM of the 2020s, it is utter rubbish, and the wintry nirvana charts it was showing were never going to come off.
​​​​​​​ 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
03 February 2023 07:28:00
Originally Posted by: Jiries 

What source did the German Met office used that time while here was MRF? If you know Darren, thanks.


It was their own DWD model, which is still going today - we know it as the ICON these days.

There was also the French Arpege model in use, and that was the one that correctly forecast the track of the Great Storm in 1987. It was an outlier, though, compared with our own MetO model... so the Met Office dismissed it. The rest, as they say, is history!

(In reality, all the European weather bureaus back in the 80s/90s would have shared their data, much as is done today. Again, the difference is we didn't get to see any of it, just the overall summary!)
Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
03 February 2023 08:25:26
For what it's worth, GEFS have trended colder again after the dramatic switch back yesterday.
Not that anyone is taking much notice - I think it will take a long time for GFS to regain some credibility in the 96-144hr range after the debacle (at least the supposedly new and improved OP).
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Jiries
03 February 2023 08:48:08
Originally Posted by: Retron 

It was their own DWD model, which is still going today - we know it as the ICON these days.

There was also the French Arpege model in use, and that was the one that correctly forecast the track of the Great Storm in 1987. It was an outlier, though, compared with our own MetO model... so the Met Office dismissed it. The rest, as they say, is history!

(In reality, all the European weather bureaus back in the 80s/90s would have shared their data, much as is done today. Again, the difference is we didn't get to see any of it, just the overall summary!)



Thanks for your interesting answers.  That explain why Icon had been performing better and refusing to bring a easterly.   
squish
03 February 2023 09:43:40
https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-120.png?6 

06z ICON is a marked improvement on the 00z and a move back to what the GFS had been showing.....

Not a freeze by any means but a chilly  dry spell
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
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