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UncleAlbert
02 February 2023 23:56:20

once again we allow ourselves to get sucked in by GFS showing some leg and bust, only to get cruelly shown the  door in the morning 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yes we get to the end of the garden path as presented by the GFS and we go through the gate and lo and behold we find we may have another one.  I personally will take the ride because it's looking like the background factors will be more favorable as we go deeper into February........
and besides it's great fun!
Jiries
03 February 2023 06:50:40

Yes we get to the end of the garden path as presented by the GFS and we go through the gate and lo and behold we find we may have another one.  I personally will take the ride because it's looking like the background factors will be more favorable as we go deeper into February........
and besides it's great fun!

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


More fun seeing past teletext, TV forecast and newspaper showing interesting weather coming up without a bust.  No fun with any single useless models or fictional apps nowadays.  As some say GFS upgrade made it worst? Wish was shut down instead and big celebrations to see all others shut down and get a single forecasting tools which was used in the past return and allow UK get more variety pattern.  
Retron
03 February 2023 06:54:01

More fun seeing past teletext, TV forecast and newspaper showing interesting weather coming up without a bust.  No fun with any single useless models or fictional apps nowadays.  As some say GFS upgrade made it worst? Wish was shut down instead and big celebrations to see all others shut down and get a single forecasting tools which was used in the past return and allow UK get more variety pattern.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Nothing changes really! 25 years ago it was the MRF (Misleading Rubbishy Forecast, as the wags on usw called it) that we all used to moan about... that then became the AVN and latterly GFS.

The MRF was used at the dawn of the 90s, too, so would have been taken into consideration by the Met Office, in addition to our own models... it's just that you didn't get to see it back then!
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
03 February 2023 07:05:27

Nothing changes really! 25 years ago it was the MRF (Misleading Rubbishy Forecast, as the wags on usw called it) that we all used to moan about... that then became the AVN and latterly GFS.

The MRF was used at the dawn of the 90s, too, so would have been taken into consideration by the Met Office, in addition to our own models... it's just that you didn't get to see it back then!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes and all the data I get from German channel Sat1 and Ard19 teletext forecast that show UK and Europe weather and every Sunday they put weekly forecasts so every cold and snowy or hot and thunder spell for UK always come off and never a bust.  What source did the German Met office used that time while here was MRF? If you know Darren, thanks.
doctormog
03 February 2023 07:11:15

Yes and all the data I get from German channel Sat1 and Ard19 teletext forecast that show UK and Europe weather and every Sunday they put weekly forecasts so every cold and snowy or hot and thunder spell for UK always come off and never a bust.  What source did the German Met office used that time while here was MRF? If you know Darren, thanks.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



A bit of suggested reading: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/why-are-weather-forecasts-not-always-accurate  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
moomin75
03 February 2023 07:26:38

once again we allow ourselves to get sucked in by GFS showing some leg and bust, only to get cruelly shown the door in the morning

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I certainly didn't get sucked into believing GFS one iota.

GFS has become the NAVGEM of the 2020s, it is utter rubbish, and the wintry nirvana charts it was showing were never going to come off.
​​​​​​​ 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
03 February 2023 07:28:00

What source did the German Met office used that time while here was MRF? If you know Darren, thanks.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


It was their own DWD model, which is still going today - we know it as the ICON these days.

There was also the French Arpege model in use, and that was the one that correctly forecast the track of the Great Storm in 1987. It was an outlier, though, compared with our own MetO model... so the Met Office dismissed it. The rest, as they say, is history!

(In reality, all the European weather bureaus back in the 80s/90s would have shared their data, much as is done today. Again, the difference is we didn't get to see any of it, just the overall summary!)
Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
03 February 2023 08:25:26
For what it's worth, GEFS have trended colder again after the dramatic switch back yesterday.
Not that anyone is taking much notice - I think it will take a long time for GFS to regain some credibility in the 96-144hr range after the debacle (at least the supposedly new and improved OP).
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Jiries
03 February 2023 08:48:08

It was their own DWD model, which is still going today - we know it as the ICON these days.

There was also the French Arpege model in use, and that was the one that correctly forecast the track of the Great Storm in 1987. It was an outlier, though, compared with our own MetO model... so the Met Office dismissed it. The rest, as they say, is history!

(In reality, all the European weather bureaus back in the 80s/90s would have shared their data, much as is done today. Again, the difference is we didn't get to see any of it, just the overall summary!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Thanks for your interesting answers.  That explain why Icon had been performing better and refusing to bring a easterly.   
+1
squish
03 February 2023 09:43:40
https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-120.png?6 

06z ICON is a marked improvement on the 00z and a move back to what the GFS had been showing.....

Not a freeze by any means but a chilly  dry spell
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Taylor1740
03 February 2023 12:49:04

I certainly didn't get sucked into believing GFS one iota.

GFS has become the NAVGEM of the 2020s, it is utter rubbish, and the wintry nirvana charts it was showing were never going to come off.
 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I disagree I think GFS is the best model and often picks out the overall long term trend and then the other models play catch up. It sometimes gets the details wrong in the 90-140 hour time frame, however I can't remember the ECM ever picking up the day 10+ pattern ahead of GFS.

​​​​​​​And sorry to point out but I'm sure you have singed the praises of GFS before when it has been the one showing mild weather!!
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Jiries
03 February 2023 12:56:13

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-120.png?6 

06z ICON is a marked improvement on the 00z and a move back to what the GFS had been showing.....

Not a freeze by any means but a chilly  dry spell

Originally Posted by: squish 



Option 1 Mild and Cloudy 13, no solar input indoor so chilly 16-17C
Option 2 Sunny and cool 7C, full solar input indoor more warmer 17-19C.

Icon 06z will give us option 2 so can't wait for that.
squish
03 February 2023 15:35:05
Icon 12z much colder at the surface over most of the continent than the 00z in a weeks time 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
03 February 2023 15:35:38
Icon 12z much colder at the surface over most of the continent than the 00z in a weeks time 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
03 February 2023 16:05:47
There is potential next week to even sneak an ice day, but nothing long lasting. Shame really as a few adjustments could have seen a decent cold shot
squish
03 February 2023 16:50:24
Looks like GEM has taken up the challenge!!
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
03 February 2023 16:51:39
GFS slider for mid to end Feb? Possible on op run
in case anyone says been led down the garden path just commenting on what it’s showing and how winter isn’t necessarily over yet!
tallyho_83
03 February 2023 18:01:29
If this isn't enough to reverse the zonal winds then what is!? Where is the PV? 12z shows persistent repeated warmings over SIBERIA and pushing into N. Pole.

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


+1
squish
03 February 2023 18:19:04
gEFS trending colder again 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Brian Gaze
03 February 2023 18:31:39

If this isn't enough to reverse the zonal winds then what is!? Where is the PV? 12z shows persistent repeated warmings over SIBERIA and pushing into N. Pole.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 




Be interesting to see how it shows up on the graph shortly.

The 6z update still showing here when posting.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/atmosphere/stratosphere 




UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DPower
03 February 2023 19:46:00
Where are all the willy waving model knockers now lol, the gfs looks increasing much nearer the mark than the Euro's with the predicted pattern for next week minus the deep freeze though. The Euro's were looking at a mobile westerly onslaught.  Better to keep schtum and wait to see the pattern unfold  rather than gob off and then have to eat humble pie.
Fairly good agreement of a SSW 10 hpa wind reversal at by the 12-14th. Not sure if this at 60n or not. beyond this hoping to see a split rather than a  displacement. Remembering back to Feb 18 and others gone by a SSW split can lead to the coldest of our winter outbreaks with a portion of the vortex dropping into northern Europe, but we need a good slice of luck as well for this to happen.
+1
doctormog
03 February 2023 19:50:54
So after a couple of days of GFS op runs showing extreme outcomes it has moderated to close to the overall picture which has been shown as a consensus across the models, which is high pressure to the east or southeast with anticyclonic conditions more likely the further S and E you go. Well-modelled except by the GFS for some reason.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Bolty
03 February 2023 20:18:42
The uppers look pretty tame for the week ahead, but under a calm and clear high we could still see quite a lot of surface cold building up as the week progresses - moderate/hard overnight frosts when skies clear and low/mid single figure days. Early February is usually still just about early enough in the year to get the inversion-type cold. By the second half of the month though, the increasing strength of the sun and daylength can start to become a bit too much for it to happen.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Jacee
03 February 2023 20:22:28

So after a couple of days of GFS op runs showing extreme outcomes it has moderated to close to the overall picture which has been shown as a consensus across the models, which is high pressure to the east or southeast with anticyclonic conditions more likely the further S and E you go. Well-modelled except by the GFS for some reason.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Do we have any verification statistics for the upgraded GFS? Anecdotally I haven't been impressed with it so far, but that may be skewed by the frequency and exposure of its output compared to the rest.
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
Brian Gaze
03 February 2023 20:25:21

Do we have any verification statistics for the upgraded GFS? Anecdotally I haven't been impressed with it so far, but that may be skewed by the frequency and exposure of its output compared to the rest.

Originally Posted by: Jacee 



These are the officially produced ones:

Specifically GFS and other global models

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/bias/ 

Global and other models

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/ 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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