I looked at 12z - seems like ENS have trended much colder with a mean -6.7c 850's on 8th in London - then saw ECM and thought oh back to square one but then again the ECM op was a milder run. Look forward to 18z. I think some models are reacting to this displacement of PV following the stratospheric warming last week.

 

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I usually don't take much interest in cold spells until the Met Office start mentioning it anyway.

Which they did in todays update  - in a very tenuous way, at least.
Caution is advised as we all know these things. Have a habit of going pear-shaped, but that’s half the fun. Let’s see what happens.

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Interesting the Met office have put that in their forecast.
GFS wont have the details right yet but I'd say an easterly is looking more and more likely now.
 

Only a week ago some of the worst winter storms that we have had were projected at 7 days by some outputs. The reality is the polar opposite

I’d say there’s a chance rather than it being more and more likely. 

We’ll see 

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Certainly notice that with my heat pump. While it is still cheaper than my old heating in all conditions, the jump in energy usage is enormous when it's subzero, due to the defrost cycles. Now the weather has warmed up a few degrees it is costing less than half what it was a week or two ago.

But I still prefer the frosty weather, and the 00Z GFS has got me a tiny bit interested after what seems to have been weeks of deathly dull model output.

00Z ensembles have quite a few cold options but look less good for prolonged cold than the 18Z set (which I didn't see at the time).

We wondered what ours was doing when it went into a defrost cycle!  Underfloor heating is great with the ASHP though.  Hoping we can get solar with battery now to help with running costs in clear frosty weather!  

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Regarding models performance,it's the first mild day down south for weeks...for over week they had been forecasting mild and now what's happened to the much touted mild wet n windy weather?

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ECM ENS.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?run=latest&chartname=ecmwfens850&chartlocation=london 

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A quick look at GFS/ECM/UKM and GEM at around T104 to T120 and UKM is the flattest and consequently HP never really takes hold. GFS probably the most amplified although only a small amount more than the ECM and GEM at that stage - suggests it's fairly well balanced as to whether the pattern will flatten or develop in to an Easterly although ECM ens not keen on anything too cold. (They do though have 3-5days where there's decent grouping around -2 to -5c at 850 level, which isn't a bad signal as I usually find the ECM ens get colder closer to a colder spell, not sure if that's just a result of how many members there are or just my dodgy perception).

Hard to call at the moment imo - if you went with what normally happens you'd say UKM will be closest but if you were analysing what the models are showing I'd say UKM won't be closest and a few days of chilly HP dominated weather is probably favoured before the pattern flattens off. You can't ignore the possibility of an easterly or cold south easterly though although that's still only an outside chance as it stands. More runs needed and all that😋


 

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Well the 18z GFS Control and Op run show easterly even at 168 there is some agreement with -10c uppers heading westwards toward the south east of UK, daytime maxes at 12pm on 7th February are in low single figures:

Operational @ 168z on 7th Feb:


Control @ 168z on 7th Feb:


ECM & GEM at 168z aren't so interested but are older runs only show 12z runs but still even they are showing daytime maxes of -1c to +6c widely.

I am keen to see where both Control and Operational sit in amongst the 18Z ENS or if they are both cold outliers!?

All eyes on tomorrows ECM & GEM - will it won't it??

 

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We could be in for a bit of a mini easterly like in February 2017 - If tonight's 18z GFS run comes about or upgrades as it has done throughout day this reminds me of the mini easterly we had 6 years ago Feb 2017 if either Operational or Control comes off  bringing back 9th and 12th February 2017, can anyone remember it? It was a drier easterly but there were snow flurries for the south esp Friday into Saturday.

We had a mini easterly which then went south easterly and we had snow flurries on Friday and Saturday esp the South - and a small pocket of -10c uppers briefly pushed westwards before the high sank SE wards. - This also followed a warming of the stratosphere end of January 2017 like what we had few days ago - So will 8th - 12th February 2023 will be a deja vu of 8th - 12the February 2017? - We shall see? See below and compare with what's happened recently more so how similar this is to GFS Operational and control run!?

Thursday 9th February 2017



Friday 10th February 2017



Saturday 11th February 2017



Sunday 11th February 2017



Monday 13th February 2017

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The most striking thing about the GFS Ens this evening is the spread of synoptic type. The Scandy easterly still on the table but a UK HP equally possible, as is a return of the Atlantic and even a snap northerl later on. My hunch is for HP just north east of the UK around t+240 with a spell of fairly cold and for the most part dry weather for 4 or 5 days centred around that time. But Interesting model watching next few days.

GFS looking very isolated this morning sadly.  Lots of dry weather though. 
 

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Bit if a reality check this morning. UKM not interested in any significant move of heights NE and trends flat. EC hinting but not on the program. GFS looking very isolated and it’s suite confirms that. 
The chances of an easterly next week on thin ice, but not resolved yet. GFS has a habit of pulling rabbits from the hat and the others play catch up. 

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The SH signal is definitely there. The models not quite sure what to do or where to place it just yet.

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The overall consensus, as much as there is one, is still for high pressure to the E or SE and in close proximity to the UK leading to anticyclonic conditions for most areas. There is a chance for a Scandinavian High but equally the chances for a Euro High among the options.

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WX temps still bringing freezing weather steadily westwards over the next two weeks but halting it as it reaches the Channel with Britain cold rather than freezing. Pptn staying in the N Atlantic (but in week 2 including W Britain unlike yesterday) and in N Med, with a little in C Europe week 1.

GFS Op building HP to 1045mb Ireland Sun 5th before it moves NE finishing at 1055mb E Baltic Thu 9th with cold E-lies across Europe just about reaching SE England. A new HP sets up W of Ireland with cold air trapped between it and the Baltic HP from Denmark down to Greece, and E Britain on the fringe of this, persisting for most of a week. Both HPs then decline allowing a cold zonal set-up by Fri 17th driven by LPs 975 mb mid-Norway and 990mb Greenland.

ECM is not promoting cold weather unlike the above. It keeps the HP over Britain after Thu 9th directing the cold thrust down towards Italy, and keeping the cold there as the HP stays in C Europe, to 1040mb Romania Sat 11th. At this time LP has deepened near Iceland 965mb and Britain is under Sw-lies.

GEFS in England has mean temp near norm except for a cold few days around Wed 8th (in the S, op and control v cold at this time, and op staying low as an outlier). Bits and pieces of rain in a few ens members later on. Scotland although temps up and down at first misses the colder period; rain minimal in east but quite persistent in W after Wed 8th. 

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Forget the models. All eyes will be on Kidlington Kieren tomorrow for Moomintroll Day. Will he see his shadow and predict six weeks of raging zonality?

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Bit if a reality check this morning. UKM not interested in any significant move of heights NE and trends flat. EC hinting but not on the program. GFS looking very isolated and it’s suite confirms that. 
The chances of an easterly next week on thin ice, but not resolved yet. GFS has a habit of pulling rabbits from the hat and the others play catch up. 

I think someone mentioned in here yesterday of how GFS was the first model to spot the exceptionally hot spell last July at a very early stage, around two weeks before it happened if I recall rightly. Also, I think the GFS ops last November were indicating, at certain times anyway, that there would  be a rise in pressure to the NE around the end of November/start of December, setting us up for the early-mid December cold spell.

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I think someone mentioned in here yesterday of how GFS was the first model to spot the exceptionally hot spell last July at a very early stage, around two weeks before it happened if I recall rightly. Also, I think the GFS ops last November were indicating, at certain times anyway, that there would  be a rise in pressure to the NE around the end of November/start of December, setting us up for the early-mid December cold spell.

GFS has performed poorly recently. In December it was on its own in predicting a cold xmas period and a greenland block

Its totally leading us up the garden path again. At least it looks mainly dry for the south and should be very springlike as greece gets the cold as normal in modern winters


 

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Looking at the general pattern, I'd say a Scandi High/cold Easterly next week is fairly unlikely. The GFS model has been toying with this scenario, but the bottom line is that there is too much energy in the Greenland/Iceland area and not enough energy to our SW to sustain any HLB.

The most likely scenario going forward as we head into the first half of February is a continuation of mid-latitude blocking with incursions of unsettled Atlantic weather into the NW of the UK. 

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Its quite an interesting pattern. We have almost record cold developing off the eastern seaboard which will push frigid air into the atlantic. This inevitably causes massive cyclogenesis and strengthens the jet. Usually this would just plough through the UK and turn it mild and unsettled. But instead the jet turns north towards greenland and generates this insane pressure gradient which could result in a record strength anticyclone. The precise position of this anticyclone then determines what happens in the UK.

Still, perhaps the models won't fully understand this until the deep low has developed and its downstream effects resolved.
 

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