Why is this place so empty? I know this could be nothing, but its still delicious model watching for a day or two worst case.
 

no idea fun to watch even if it doesn’t happen. That op run is the best run I have seen

Why is this place so empty? I know this could be nothing, but its still delicious model watching for a day or two worst case.
 

Perhaps because the scenario shown in some of the GFS op runs, including the 06z one is largely outside the reliable timescale and lacking support from other models and its own ensemble data? That and some people prefer milder weather for numerous reasons or anticyclonic easterlies when they do materialise tend to be cool and grey more often than not. 

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Perhaps because the scenario shown in some of the GFS op runs, including the 06z one is largely outside the reliable timescale and lacking support from other models and its own ensemble data? That and some people prefer milder weather for numerous reasons or anticyclonic easterlies when they do materialise tend to be cool and grey more often than not. 

True, although the 6Z as it is wouldn't be, though you are ofc right that a very small adjustment could result in that.

Still, its about the journey not the destination right? I've got more total excitement over the years from model watching than I have from snow.

 

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At last the GFS 06z has the pattern nailed on 😂

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True, although the 6Z as it is wouldn't be, though you are ofc right that a very small adjustment could result in that.

Still, its about the journey not the destination right? I've got more total excitement over the years from model watching than I have from snow.

 

Agreed. A cat will have the time of it’s life chasing a mouse, but when it’s caught it will often just walk away with the satisfaction of a job well done. When the models are in this mood, the NWP is the mouse, and we are the cats! Only if GFS is anywhere near correct, the mouse will be well worth tasting.

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Agreed. A cat will have the time if it’s life chasing a mouse, but when it’s caught it will often just walk away with the satisfaction of a job well done. When the models are in this mood, the NWP is the mouse, and we are the cats! Only if GFS is anywhere near correct, the mouse will be well worth tasting.

That's very true, there have been very few times when I have actually not been dissapointed with the actual cold spell. And actually I don't think I've been satisfied since the early tenties (at least in the winter, there have been some crazy spring cold spells recently). For me 2018 BFTE was a bust, most of the snow ended up in SE Scotland, the -16C uppers did nothing for me in the way they did do something in March 2013.
 

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Why is this place so empty? I know this could be nothing, but its still delicious model watching for a day or two worst case.
 

It's because we've seen it all before over the past 25 years or so.

I'll not get excited until the other models pick it up TBH, and even then it'll be with caution!

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It's because we've seen it all before over the past 25 years or so.

I'll not get excited until the other models pick it up TBH, and even then it'll be with caution!

Deep down we all know, its not going to happen, but usually people still get to enjoy the ride!
Is it a lack of new members thing? Do we need those naive newbies who still have hope and dreams?
 

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Most model watchers have had their dreams destroyed. annually since 1997. 

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Deep down we all know, its not going to happen, but usually people still get to enjoy the ride!
Is it a lack of new members thing? Do we need those naive newbies who still have hope and dreams?
 

Some of us are lurking. Too afraid to peep from behind the curtain incase it goes wrong again. Like Darren says, we need more CMS before we can start to even remotely smile at a possibility.

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It's because we've seen it all before over the past 25 years or so.

I'll not get excited until the other models pick it up TBH, and even then it'll be with caution!

Wise move and like myself have total 0% trust with models than 100% trusted in the old days of tele text, ceefax, newspapers and TV forecasters.  Old forecasters were paid to forecast what it coming and not the preference forecasters we having lately.

I'm behind the sofa, peeping out occasionally. That GFS run would be incredible and eventually would give Edinburgh another December 2010 or BFTE, both of which gave us 12"+  with heavy snow showers for days on end! Back behind the sofa until late afternoon 😬

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It's because we've seen it all before over the past 25 years or so.

There was something really enjoyable about those first TWO years with the blind optimism every winter, all being fanned by some proper charlatans. 

 

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The middle part of the 06Z GFS run is laden full of Kent Clipper potential, but I'm also full of model fatique. 😂 I'll wait until if ECM and UKMO come on board within the 144 hrs range and it'll still be chasing rainbows. 

😀 At least the days are gone when we used to go all in as well based on one GFS op run. 😃

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Retron has posted. Nailed on BFTE on the way..😄

Most model watchers have had their dreams destroyed. annually since 1997. 

With some of the classic disappointments we’ve endured over the years it’s not just one’s dreams that feel destroyed 😲😂
The macroscale global drivers (NH specifically) don’t lend themselves to a sturdy Scandy high, which makes the current lack of cross-model support even more suspicious. The fun is not really knowing if GFS is on to something, but we won’t have to wait long. Get this within 5 days and we’ll know one way or the other. Dare I say ‘blend’?

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So no-one wants to hear from ECM or GEM? No surprise as both have strong  SW-lies by Sat 11th, none of GFS' bEastliness.

But it's when models disagree that weather watching gets interesting.

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For me it is often the case that the chase is more exciting than the actual event, partly as we live in one of the less snowy places of the UK. However, this is countered by getting vicarious pleasure from snow reports elsewhere. The initial excitement is in a cold chart appearing as an op and then, as DEW says, we have the tension of lack of CMA. If were luckily, there is then some sort of agreement with the occasional stress of the odd rogue run and then finally the actual event which rarely matches the expectation (2010 an other earlier events notwithstanding).

 

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A remarkable divergence between the GFS and ECM this afternoon. The GFS is going all out, with some impressive charts for cold weather fans, whilst the ECM is having none of it, with the Atlantic pushing through fairly quickly. It just shows how critical the exact position of these blocking highs are.

GFS:

ECM

Whatever happens, one of the models is going to be spectacularly wrong!

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For me it is often the case that the chase is more exciting than the actual event, partly as we live in one of the less snowy places of the UK. However, this is countered by getting vicarious pleasure from snow reports elsewhere. The initial excitement is in a cold chart appearing as an op and then, as DEW says, we then have the tension of lack of CMA. If were luckily, there is then some sort of agreement with the occasional stress of the odd rogue run and then finally the actual event which rarely matches the expectation (2010 an other earlier events notwithstanding).

 

2005 was such an amazing event for me, arguably even close to 2010 even though it only lasted a week. That exceeded expectations, although forecasts were probably bad at picking up small scale features back then.
 

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