Wonder if the 6z will crank up the roller coaster and send the Winter Optimism Index soaring again?

😁

---

Not sure an enormous amount has changed this morning in terms of the general pattern/most likely mid term evolution.

Probably HP dominated for a few days, average to chilly more likely than overly mild or cold albeit a low chance of either mild/very mild if the HP is further south or cold/very cold if it's far enough north to bring in an easterly. Given the general consensus is for HP to move about I imagine it'll be mild/grey as it nudges in from the Atlantic, chilly/grey as it develops and ridges north, then milder again as the pattern flattens possibly with the far SE maintaining cooler air for a bit longer depending on how quickly the HP is pushed south and how far.

ECM ens IMBY have a similar (to 12z) very small number of what are presumably easterlies judging by temps. Overall though the temps have nudged up a degree or so in the period 7-12th, suggesting HP is not as far north as the 12z set.

I guess the other thing to look for is a second bite of the cherry - there's presumably something in the setup that makes HP forming over Scandi possible, so if that persists we may get attempt 2 a week or so after the first attempt, assuming as looks likely the first attempt fails.  

---

Something to bear in mind, for those like me that just take a quick look at the ensembles when nothing much is going on, is that around February 9th the long term mean hits it lowest of the winter around -3C. (London, 850 hPas).  A quick glance and you see values just below the mean and think, ah, nothing cold, but they are mostly around -6C at this time of year. It doesn't take much of a dip to be quite cold.

---

The wierd thing is that the 6Z, taken literally, would take the deepest cold over the UK in the entire winter. Its a very very cold pattern especially for the SE (and quite snowy in the SE too). But doesn't take much for it to be a nothingburger like some of the other models suggest.
 

---

The wierd thing is that the 6Z, taken literally, would take the deepest cold over the UK in the entire winter. Its a very very cold pattern especially for the SE (and quite snowy in the SE too). But doesn't take much for it to be a nothingburger like some of the other models suggest.
 

Its bollox. like that phantom Greenland high from December. It will be in line with other models by this evening
 

---

6z keeps the hope alive with a very cold spell next week. Definitely conflicting output with a slight adjustment south/north on the models makes all the difference. Was very wrong yesterday thinking UKMO would come onboard, interesting GFS op is continuing with a very cold outlook

Wonder if the 6z will crank up the roller coaster and send the Winter Optimism Index soaring again?

😁

Erm... yes!

But it is very much out on its own, with ECM, UKMO and GEM all saying "forget about it".

---

The middle part of the 06Z GFS run is laden full of Kent Clipper potential, but I'm also full of model fatique. 😂 I'll wait until if ECM and UKMO come on board within the 144 hrs range and it'll still be chasing rainbows. 

---

Looking at the previous 4 runs of the GFS I think it has just pushed all of it chips to the middle of the table with the 6z.

---

Possibly the craziest run I have seen for a while GFS 6z op run. Would cause a few countrywide issues but seems to be highly unlikely at the moment as it’s on its own. But is run off the latest data. 
if it did come of I might walk to Calais from Dover !

Ridiculous 6z very cold and very snowy.
Hell of a coup if GFS is on the money.
 

---

Ridiculous 6z very cold and very snowy.
Hell of a coup if GFS is on the money.
 

possibly the coldest run I have seen chances of it happening……same as Trump

Its bollox. like that phantom Greenland high from December. It will be in line with other models by this evening
 

One of your classic posts that pretty much guarantee an easterly 😂👍
 

---

Certainly not on its own in GEFS

The 6Z is 'the one' isn't it.

Has to be the best single run I've seen in years. You could not ask for a more perfect cold spell.
 

---

Its bollox. like that phantom Greenland high from December. It will be in line with other models by this evening
 

OK I know deep down you are right, but I'm going to play devil's advocate because I want this so much.

Yes the OP's were dissapointing but there has been support for days now on all the ensembles, and yes its been a minority up until very recently but it isn't quite the full picture to say the ECM is completely against it.
 

---

Certainly not on its own in GEFS

Up to 192h its not even the coldest (though I suspect it will be further out). Unbelievably good set of runs!

Even if this is a phantom, surely we have a day or so of cracking model watching ahead! The watching is nearly as good as the snow itself.


Edit: at a glance P1,P2,P3,P6,P7,P8,P10,P12,P17,P18,P24,P25,P27,P29 all show cold before T+192, and there will be some runs that develop cold after T+192.


Jesus christ though, check out some of the runs. P24 is particularly crazy.
 

---

The 6Z is 'the one' isn't it.

Has to be the best single run I've seen in years. You could not ask for a more perfect cold spell.
 

It's a ridiculously good winter run for the UK. 

First easterly attack, followed by a renewed pulse of cold air from the east, then when that Scandi-strength cold pool to the east is almost exhausted, the high migrates to Greenland to open the door for a full on Arctic onslaught beyond the end of the run. The 450-500 hour charts would be quite something!

---

It's a ridiculously good winter run for the UK. 

First easterly attack, followed by a renewed pulse of cold air from the east, then when that Scandi-strength cold pool to the east is almost exhausted, the high migrates to Greenland to open the door for a full on Arctic onslaught beyond the end of the run. The 450-500 hour charts would be quite something!

Which we can get for the ensembles but not the OP annoyingly.

Maybe P24 will end in a similar way to the OP?
 

---

Why is this place so empty? I know this could be nothing, but its still delicious model watching for a day or two worst case.
 

---