Note sure if the ECM ENS (either via TWO or another site) were posted this morning. They don't look at all convincing if you're in the cold business.



https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?run=latest&chartname=ecmwfens850&chartlocation=london 

---

Note sure if the ECM ENS (either via TWO or another site) were posted this morning. They don't look at all convincing if you're in the cold business.



https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?run=latest&chartname=ecmwfens850&chartlocation=london 

They were a little more on board yesterday

---

Will ICON join the GFS party?
think it’s going to be a no

Will ICON join the GFS party?

looks like a small upgrade to me, but nowhere near enough to get on par with GFS>
 

---

I've gone for a quite mild February.
Bet I wish I hadn't now.
 

---

ARPEGE looks about half way between GFS and ICON.
 

---

The crucial difference is as early as T+78h.

https://i.paste.pics/0bc074dd5e2fc62e6373835f987cd65d.png 

This is the feature to watch for. A cut off low that becomes detached from the main vortex. Its asociated with those bright purple colours. If this feature forms, it ends up eventually near scandi where it prevents the scandi high from forming. If the feature doesn't form, the low (but higher) heights drop down into Europe instead and help prop up the anticyclone.

To be clear. We don't want this feature to form. The weaker this thing is the better.
 

---

So far so good. No lobe detatchment at T+66h.

Only a few more frames until we will know.
 

---

BINGO.

12Z is, at the very least, not a downgrade.

Lobe has not been detached. In the process of being reabsorbed at T+72h.

GFS still holding steady.
 

---

T+78 is pretty clear, same idea as 6Z GFS. No lobe detachment so we should end up with something quite similar to the 6Z with only details changing.

EDIT: There is a bit more vorticity heading towards scandi on this one. So maybe a minor downgrade?

Still this will not be an ICON type run.

 

---

OK its not quite as good as the 6Z, the upper level low is stronger compared to the 6Z. But crucially, its still very weak and trough like rather than a full upper level vortex as in the ICON.

 

---

UKMO still has the lobe breaking off.

So this will apparantely not be resolved on the 12Z set.

 

---

A little shuffle from the UKMO towards the GFS and vice versa I would say. 

---

Still a lot to get sorted for next week and the chance of very cold on the Met Office shows the uncertainty 

Lots of variation in the icelandic lobe strength.

For example P1 will likely look better than the OP, it has a much weaker lobe.
P8 is the opposite with a very strong Lobe and will end up looking like the ICON.
 

---

Word of the day...lobe.
 

---

Word of the day...lobe.
 

In some cases, lube😳

I'll give GFS it's due, it's like a dog with a boner at the moment.

---

So if this indeed comes down to the strength of that upper level trough in the greenland sea, expect the uncertainty to remain. Something as simple as how much sea ice there happens to be in the straight could have an effect (more ice = weaker lobe). And models won't account for this at all.
 

---

Lol look at P12

Lobe develops into a strong upper level vortex!
Its crazy how much variation is at the critical T+78h mark.
 

---

A little shuffle from the UKMO towards the GFS and vice versa I would say. 

GEM 12z also joining the shuffling towards each other party.

Gfs 12z still cold but boring compared to the 6z. 

---